Murray's Mountain West rankings: Nevada's magic number down to four

Each week, Nevada Sports Net columnist Chris Murray will rank the Mountain West basketball teams. Here are this week’s rankings, with each team’s record and a comment. All records and rankings based on the games completed by Monday night.

1. Nevada

Rank last week: 1

Record: 24-1, 11-1 MW

Comment: Nevada’s magic number for a share of the Mountain West title is four, which means the Wolf Pack could clinch part of a conference crown if (a) it wins twice this week, (b) Utah State loses twice and (c) Fresno State falls Wednesday to Air Force. It’s unlikely, but Nevada is inching toward another crown. The Wolf Pack’s two games this week – at San Diego State; vs. Fresno State – is its hardest back-to-back games in the conference season. The tougher tests are good for Nevada, which is buzz-sawing foes of late.

2. Utah State

Rank last week: 2

Record: 20-6, 10-3

Comment: Utah State picked up a pair of easy wins last week over Wyoming and Air Force and gets New Mexico and Boise State this week. The Aggies need to win both to keep pressure on Nevada, which it hosts two Saturdays from today. More importantly, Utah State can’t lose to a non-Nevada team for the rest of the season if it wants to keep alive its NCAA Tournament at-large aspirations (it’s in the First Four Out on most brackets).

3. Fresno State

Rank last week: 3

Record: 19-6, 10-3

Comment: Amazingly, Fresno State has only played six games in the Quad 1 or Quad 2 categories this season, which means it almost certainly isn’t getting an NCAA Tournament at-large berth. The Bulldogs must win at Nevada on Saturday to have any hope of that. That’d give Fresno State two Quad 1 wins. But first comes a game Wednesday at home against Air Force. The Bulldogs should have little issue in that one.

4. San Diego State

Rank last week: 4

Record: 16-9, 8-4

Comment: SDSU took advantage of the weaker part of its conference schedule, which has put it in position to potentially finish second in the MW, but that’d require the Aztecs finishing strong. SDSU still has two games left against Nevada and single matchups with Utah State and Fresno State. The Aztecs control their destiny for a MW title, but it would have to sweep all four of those games to win the crown. That ain't happening.

5. UNLV

Rank last week: 5

Record: 14-11, 8-5

Comment: UNLV remains very light on quality wins, but the Rebels are 8-1 in games against teams ranked below them in these rankings. Beat the bad teams – and there are plenty of them in this conference – and it’s enough to post a nice record. UNLV drew Fresno State and Utah State once each in the MW schedule, and the Rebels need to take advantage of that to finish in the top five of the standings to get that MW Tournament bye.

6. Boise State

Rank last week: 6

Record: 11-15, 6-7

Comment: It was not a fun week for Boise State, which lost at Fresno State by two before falling at San Diego State by six. The Broncos were undone by an awful 3-of-17 shooting night from three in the loss at Fresno State before being crushed on the boards (by 18) at SDSU. Boise State is down to 353rd in KenPom’s luck ratings this season. There are 353 D-I teams. That’s not good. The Broncos are 1-7 in games decided by six points or fewer. This team is better than its record indicates.

7. New Mexico

Rank last week: 9

Record: 11-14, 5-8

Comment: New Mexico destroyed San Jose State (everybody destroys San Jose State) last week before losing a tight one at home against Fresno State. The Lobos are 7-7 at The Pit this season, which is unheard of given how good New Mexico has been on its home court over the decades. Outside of the win over Nevada, the Lobos have been very average on its home court this season.

8. Colorado State

Rank last week: 7

Record: 9-16, 4-8

Comment: Colorado State’s losing streak is at three games, although contests this week with San Jose State and Wyoming should fix that issue. The Rams could feasibly finish the conference season at .500, although that’d require winning five of their last six games. Colorado State has won only five of its last 20 games, so the odds are against the Rams ripping off five of six, although their schedule to end the year is pretty soft.

9. Air Force

Rank last week: 8

Record: 10-15, 5-8

Comment: Air Force played a pair of competitive games against UNLV and Utah State last week, but dropped both, which all but ended the Falcons’ hopes of a MW Tournament bye. Air Force would have to win out for that to happen, and that’s not going to happen. The back-to-back wins over San Diego State and UNLV in late January seem like a long time ago.

10. Wyoming

Rank last week: 10

Record: 6-19, 2-10

Comment: The season can’t get over fast enough for Wyoming, which dropped decisions to Utah State and Nevada last week. The big question for the Cowboys is whether they can rebound from this next season. Allen Edwards began his tenure at Wyoming with back-to-back 20-wins campaigns. Nothing has gone right this year, and another single-digit-win campaign next season would put Edwards on the hot seat.

11. San Jose State

Rank last week: 11

Record: 3-21, 0-12

Comment: This has been an abysmal season even by SJSU’s standards. The Spartans have lost 15 straight games and have been out-scored by 14.8 points per game over the full campaign. That’s SJSU second-worst scoring margin since the turn of the century. It was out-scored by 15.8 points per game in 2014-15, when it went 2-28 overall and 0-18 in the MW. This season has been just as ugly.

Columnist Chris Murray provides insight on Northern Nevada sports. Contact him at crmurray@sbgtv.com or follow him on Twitter @MurrayNSN.