Nevada at New Mexico: Three keys to victory and a prediction

The Nevada basketball team plays at New Mexico on Tuesday. Nevada Sports Net’s Chris Murray breaks down the game with his three keys to victory and prediction.

Nevada (16-10, 9-5 MW) at New Mexico (17-10, 6-8 MW)

When: Tuesday, 6 p.m.

Where: Dreamstyle Arena (15,411 capacity)

TV/Radio: ESPNU/94.5 FM

Online: ESPN+

Betting line: Nevada by 1

Three keys for Nevada to win

1. Shred New Mexico from three: New Mexico’s defense has been horrible of late. The Lobos are allowing 114.9 points per 100 possessions in its last nine games, a stretch in which it is 2-7. In those seven losses, New Mexico has given up 123.3 points per 100 possessions. That’s AAU-level defense. Nevada shredded the Lobos in the first matchup between these teams, scoring 96 points and tying a program-record with 17 made threes. Six players reached double-figures. During its recent nine-game skid, opponents are shooting 40.5 percent from three against the Lobos. In its seven losses in that stretch, New Mexico has allowed 45.5 percent shooting from three. This is a good matchup for Nevada, a dangerous 3-point shooting team facing an opponent with minimal interest in defending the three.

2. Don’t let Lyle get healthy: JaQuan Lyle, a transfer from Ohio State, was making a case for first-team All-MW honors until suffering a knee injury in mid-January. Until that point, Lyle was averaging 17.1 points, 4.9 assists, 4.1 rebounds and 1.4 steals while shooting 46.4 percent from the field, including 37.3 percent from three. But then he hurt his knee and was then suspended after hosting a house party that led to a shooting (on the day New Mexico played Nevada last month), and he hasn’t been the same since. Lyle returned three games ago but has been a shell of his early-season self. In those three games, Lyle is averaging 5.3 points, 4.3 rebounds and 2.7 assists while shooting 20 percent from the floor, including 21.4 percent from three. All that while still logging 34.3 minutes per game. Lyle remains dangerous. Nevada must avoid letting him get back to the player we saw in November and December.

3. Keep the emotions in check: This will be an emotional game for Nevada as five former Lobos – head coach Steve Alford, associate head coach Craig Neal, director of player development Kory Alford and graduate assistants Roman Martinez and Nathan Strong – return to the Pit for the first time since either coaching or playing for the program. Now, all of those guys are coaches these days, so they won’t be on the floor where the emotions could get the best of them. But the Wolf Pack players know how much this game means to Alford and his staff, so they can’t get emotionally hijacked by the moment or by the likely 12,000 or so fans in attendance, who are usually one of the loudest groups in the conference. Nevada must take a business-like approach to a game that will be wrought with emotional tension.

Prediction

Nevada 84, New Mexico 78: New Mexico’s season has fallen apart over the last month, a stretch where the Lobos are 2-7 with the wins coming at home over Wyoming and San Jose State (the MW’s two worst teams). The seven losses have come by an average of 19.4 points per game. New Mexico’s defense has collapsed, and its offense, which ranked third in the MW when these teams faced off 25 days ago, has plummeted to seventh in the conference. Nothing has gone right for New Mexico, and that includes losing to UNLV on Saturday at the Pit, where the Lobos had been 14-1. Nevada has had trouble in Albuquerque over the years, going 1-4 at New Mexico since moving to the MW in 2012, the one win being a miracle. But there’s no way I can pick the Lobos to win this game given how it is playing right now. Season record: 21-5