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Nevada at Wyoming: Three keys and a prediction


Cody Martin and the Wolf Pack take on Wyoming on Saturday. (Nevada athletics)
Cody Martin and the Wolf Pack take on Wyoming on Saturday. (Nevada athletics)
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The Nevada basketball team plays at Wyoming on Saturday in Laramie. Nevada Sports Net’s Chris Murray breaks down the game with three keys to victory and his prediction.

No. 6/7 Nevada (23-1, 10-1) at Wyoming (6-18, 2-9)

When: Saturday, 7 p.m. (Pacific)

Where: Arena-Auditorium (11,445 capacity)

TV/Radio: ESPNU/94.5 FM

Online: ESPN3.com and Watch ESPN app

Betting line: No line posted yet

Three keys for Nevada to win

1. Crank the tempo: Nevada’s improved offensive play over the last five games has dovetailed with its improved offensive pace. The Wolf Pack is averaging 75 possessions per game during that stretch. It hit 75 possessions just three times in its first 19 games of the year. Nevada is up to 98th in KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric after being in the 200s last month. Wyoming will try and slow the game down against the high-octane Wolf Pack. The Cowboys are averaging 65.7 possessions per game over its last six outings and understands as an underdog the fewer possessions the better. Wyoming has been playing zone defense of late, in part because it is down in numbers and can conserve energy with that scheme. The Wolf Pack’s zone offense has been improved in recent outings and was stellar after adding a new set – a play called “Touchdown” – in its last game, a 29-point win over New Mexico. The zone isn’t slowing down Nevada’s pace as much as it did earlier this season, but playing with tempo really starts on the defensive end by getting stops, rebounds and running. If Nevada gets this game into the 80s, it wins easily.

2. Contain Justin James: When asked this week what about Wyoming stands out on film, Nevada head coach Eric Musselman needed just two words: “Justin James.” The 6-foot-7 guard is averaging 20.9 points, 8.4 rebounds, 4.4 assists and 1.6 steals per game. He’s one of the most dangerous players in the Mountain West, although he’s received minimal help from his teammates. James can be a volume scorer as he’s shooting just 40 percent from the field and 31 percent from three. Given his lack of help, his efficiency has fallen as a senior and his turnovers (3.9 per game) have skyrocketed. But James has been superb over the last four games, averaging 26.3 points per game on 52.3 percent shooting, including 54.1 percent from three. Despite his team’s struggles, he’s stayed positive and optimistic rather than turned selfish as he aims for an NBA career. If Wyoming is going to upset Nevada, James must have a big game, which he is more than capable of. Expect the Martin twins to get the defensive assignment.

3. Crush Cowboys on glass: Wyoming is one of the nation’s worst rebounding team. Its 45 percent rebounding rate is the 13th worst in the country. Its minus-6.6 rebounding margin is the seventh worst in the nation. Nevada hasn’t been a great rebounding team, but it is coming off its best rebounding effort of the season after crushing a long New Mexico team by 14 on the backboard. Wyoming has good size across the board, but it hasn’t translated on the glass. The Cowboys are a horrible offensive rebounding team, grabbing just 13.3 percent of its misses, the worst (by a wide margin) out of 353 Division I teams. It is better on the defensive glass, but Nevada should win the rebounding battle by double-digits if it plays aggressively. Wyoming’s top two rebounders are 6-7 guards (James and Hunter Maldonado). They’re the only two players on the team who average more than 4.1 boards a night. The Cowboy forwards have been lacking in that area.

Prediction

Nevada 85, Wyoming 65: Wyoming has used 11 starters this season and had to include some mid-year walk-ons, including one from the football team, to beef up its roster. It’s been that kind of a season for the Cowboys, who are on pace for their first season with single-digit wins since 1973-74. Per KenPom’s metrics, Wyoming has the MW’s second-worst offense and third-worst defense (Nevada is first in both categories). The Cowboys have been playing better of late, but this game should not be competitive into the final five minutes. If it is, something has gone terribly wrong for Nevada, which is looking for its 12th win away from Lawlor Events Center this season. It shouldn’t have an issue securing that. Season record: 23-1

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