Nevada-South Dakota State: Three keys and a prediction
The Nevada basketball team plays South Dakota State on Saturday night in Reno. Nevada Sports Net’s Chris Murray breaks down the game with three keys to victory and his prediction.
South Dakota State (9-3) at Nevada (10-0)
When: Saturday, 6 p.m.
Where: Lawlor Events Center (11,536 capacity)
TV/Radio: None/94.5 FM
Online: ESPN3.com/Watch ESPN
Betting line: No line released yet
Three keys for Nevada to win
1. Defend the three: You can pretty much scribble Mike Daum in for an efficient 20 and 10 game. It’s the other guys Nevada can’t let get hot. Daum is surrounded by some talented 3-point shooters. The Jackrabbits average 10 3-pointers made per game and hit those at a 44.9 percent rate (fourth in the nation). Guards David Jenkins Jr. and Skyler Flatten combine to make 5.9 3-pointers per game at a 50.8 percent rate. Those two are very capable scorers, so Nevada can’t put its entire defensive focus on Daum, who is averaging 26.2 points per game and can score at all three levels of the court. It’s not an easy challenge for Nevada, which has done a great job so far of defending the 3-point line so far (30 percent allowed).
2. Attack Daum on defense: Daum can’t score if he’s on the bench. The 6-foot-9, 235-pounder doesn't have a lot of defensive help down low (the only other big boy is 6-8, 250-pound Matt Dentlinger, who gets 18 minutes a game). Nevada should attack Daum down low with Trey Porter and Jordan Caroline and try to get him in foul trouble. He’s not the best athlete or best defender and it wouldn’t be a stretch to imagine Porter or Caroline tagging him with some early fouls, or getting relatively easy baskets if Daum is trying to avoid fouls to stay on the court. Daum has already fouled out twice this season (two of nine times he’s done so in his career). Nevada should have success if they let Porter go back-to-the basket against Daum or allow Caroline to face up, take him off the dribble and attack the body.
3. Get Caleb Martin on track: Mr. Mountain West Player of the Year has been “garbage” from three (his words) in the last two games, yet his all-around game is improved over last season. Martin, whose foot injury from last year has flared up some of late, is still averaging 18.7 points, 5.3 rebounds and 2.6 assists per game, excellent numbers. His efficiency is down a little (42.6 FG% and 32.9 3PT% this year compared to 45.4 FG% and 40.3 3PT% last season). Returning home should help Martin, who is a career 39.1 percent 3-point shooter at Lawlor Events Center. Despite some unusual form, he’s a good shooter and will come around at some point. “Those same shots he’s missing right now, when he makes them we’re unbeatable,” Nevada coach Eric Musselman said.
Prediction
Nevada 92, South Dakota State 80: South Dakota State has an excellent offensive team with relatively few weaknesses, but it is vulnerable on defense, which has shown in its three losses. The Jackrabbits have fallen to Florida Gulf Coast and Tulane (one of those teams is 3-8 and the other 3-6) as well as Memphis (5-4), so there are a couple of bad defeats on the schedule to date. But South Dakota State could win this game if it has a hot shooting night like it did last time out when it sank 23 3-pointers. Nevada’s goal will be to keep South Dakota State to single-digit hits from beyond the arc. This game will largely come down to that 3-poinr line – in addition to their sharp shooting, the Jackrabbits limit opponents to 29.1 percent shooting from three – but Nevada can’t live and die with the three given South Dakota State’s interior defense weakness. The Jackrabbits do not have a rim protector (25 total blocks, nobody with more than seven), so the Wolf Pack should dominate the points in the paint and if it attacks the rim with regularity it will remain unbeaten. Season record: 10-0