From Saurav Borah
TURA: Even as political analysts reckon a neck-and-neck fight between Congress and National People’s Party in Tura parliamentary constituency, a sizeable Muslim electorate, known to be “traditional supporters” of the grand old party, may prove to be decisive at the end of the day.
As both Congress and NPP stitch together a mixed bag of allies/supporters in their favour as they up the ante ahead of the April 11 Lok Sabha elections, some observers are getting candid, albeit after much persuasion.
“It’ll be a tough fight…hard to say. Both (Mukul Sangma and Agatha Sangma) are strong. But my gut feeling is that Dr Mukul Sangma, with proven leadership abilities and performance as chief minister, will have the last laugh. Also, a sizeable Muslim electorate in at least seven plain belt constituencies (under Tura LS seat) might swing the tide in his favour,” says Chris Kabul A Sangma, who contested the Assembly elections as an Independent last year, told The Shillong Times at his Chitoktak residence here.
A businessman and social worker, Chris feels Agatha is still young and learning. “She was trained by her father. Had P. A Sangma, who I had known as a child, been there, it could have been different. He was a tall leader but Babang (as his son and NPP president, Conrad Sangma is endearing referred to in Garo Hills) is still new,” he adds.
Listing out the numbers constituency wise, Chris says there are about 80,000 voters in seven constituencies who will without an iota of hesitation vote for the “Hand”, the election symbol of Congress. “Among them, Rajabala (about 18000 odd voters), Phulbari (about 15000), Mahendraganj (about 15000) and Tikrikilla (over 10,000) have the highest number of Muslim voters in the electoral rolls,” he adds.
“For them, it doesn’t matter who the candidate is. In fact, some gullible voters wouldn’t even know who’s in the fray. But they have been staunch Congress supporters all the while, and wave or no wave, would press the EVM button in the party’s favour,” he says.
Substantiating the claim, Rafiqul Shaikh, a daily wage earner from Phulbari, says he cannot think of any party but Congress. “I will vote for the Hand,” he says.
Also, the fact that the BJP, an ally of the NPP-led Meghalaya Democratic Alliance, has fielded Rikman G Momin, there would be a split between NPP and BJP votes.
“There is a decent population comprising Bengali, Marwari, Bihari and Nepali voters who are supporting BJP. Others from these communities will either vote for NPP or Congress. Voters from Hajong community have earlier favoured BJP, but may be divided this time. The Koch community, a majority of who belong to Mukul’s former constituency, will favour Congress and NPP,” said another observer, with no party affiliation.
In Adokgre (East Garo Hills), “the land of victory”, where the late PA Sangma invariably began his poll campaigns to eventually win, there is a noticeable split between NPP and Congress. Veteran members of his party (then Nationalist Congress Party) are shifting allegiance to Congress even as sections from the younger generation are heard to be rooting for NPP and Agatha.
office in Tura. (ST)
“There is a difference about the leaders then and now. He (PA Sangma) was a tall leader and a smooth campaigner. Nowadays there is too much mudslinging. Now I am a Congress supporter,” said an elderly resident, as he anticipated Mukul Sangma’s poll campaign in Adokgre on April 6.
But of course, the Garo National Council and some frontline Rabha organisations in Garo Hills are supporting Agatha and her party.
At the Congress office in the Ringrey area, there is a buzz as the first Mukul posters come out fresh from the press, after allotment of symbols. Party men appear buoyant and confident that their leader will prevail.
Analysing the strengths of Mukul Sangma, Grithalson N Arengh, the general secretary of the District Congress Committee here, said, “His performance says it all. He has created four new districts, many civil subdivisions, upgraded police stations, introduced Mega health insurance, CM’s social assistance, old age pension scheme, among a slew of development initiatives,”
“We are confident. This time, it will be tough for NPP. Tura has had no Congress legislators for more than two decades now. So the town per se has not developed,” Arengh said.
Asked about the Muslim vote factor, “Yes, Congress will do well in the plain belt. But more than the party, they would vote for the ideology of secularism….NPP has an alliance with BJP which is not seen as a secular party here…” he concluded.