MORGANTOWN, W.Va. — If there is a level between impossible and improbable, that is where West Virginia’s chances of beating Oklahoma this week reside.
That’s not a matter of opinion, but a matter of data.
The Mountaineers go into Saturday as 33.5-point underdogs. Dating back to 1994, only eight teams favored by at least 33.5 points have lost. Perhaps the only thing capable of making WVU fans smile about that scenario is the fact Virginia Tech accounts for two of those eight losses by massive favorites.
Oddsmakers are giving West Virginia a slightly worse chance of winning than they gave Appalachian State against Michigan in 2007. The other Mountaineers were 33-point underdogs in that one. In retrospect, they should not have been — App State was a veteran team that had won back-to-back FCS national championships, and the game was in the unpredictable first week of the season.
West Virginia’s Mountaineers could be taking the field without their starting quarterback or either starting cornerback against one of the nation’s established top offenses and a dramatically improved defense at the season’s midpoint.
West Virginia players aren’t naive about what is expected of them against the Sooners. They are simply choosing not to be daunted by it.
“We’re the second-highest underdog in program history. I saw that on Twitter,” said senior left tackle Colton McKivitz. “You can go about it a couple ways. You can go in thinking you’re going to lose no matter what. But really the thing about college football is anybody can beat anybody. I’m not saying it is going to happen. But we’re definitely going to play like there’s an opportunity.
“If you don’t go into every game thinking that there’s a way to win a game, then you shouldn’t be playing the sport. It’s a great opportunity to show what we’re made of and what our young guys are made of playing in a venue like that against a good team.”
Defensive tackle Darius Stills sees it as an opportunity to shine.
“I’m used to it. No one gives West Virginia credit for anything,” said the Fairmont native. “That means we have nothing to lose. We’re going into this with a positive mindset, not, ‘Oh, we’re going to lose.’ The pressure is really on Oklahoma; it’s not on us. If we play how I’ve seen the defense play, then we’ll be good.”
Stills know it is going to take a nearly flawless performance for the Mountaineers to pull off the monumental stunner. But he thinks the defense has shown it is almost there after performing well in the first three quarters against Texas and Iowa State. He says the multitude of freshmen in the West Virginia lineup need to play beyond their years if an upset is to become reality.
“I keep using the word execution. If we execute our calls and be mature about stuff — there are a lot of freshmen playing, and we’ve got a young defense. But people have got to step up,” Stills said. “It’s time now. It’s Oklahoma this week. There’s no ‘I’m a freshman’ excuse or ‘I’m an underclassman’ excuse. You’re on the field now. You have to play to the highest level.”
Major upsets
The biggest upsets against the point spread (Since 1994)
- Howard 43, UNLV 40 (2017): The FCS Bison were 45.5-point underdogs, and in the process proved Vegas bookies were paying no attention to the team in their own backyard.
- Stanford 24, USC 23 (2007): The Cardinals were 40.5-point underdogs against No. 2 USC. This win ushered in a seismic shift in the direction of both programs.
- Syracuse 38, Louisville 35 (2007): The Orange were undervalued after opening the season with three blowout losses to solid opponents, and bookies did not yet realize first-year coach Steve Kragthorpe was in over his head at Louisville. Syracuse was a 37-point dog.
- Temple 28, Virginia Tech 24 (1998): The 0-6 Owls were 35.5-point underdogs, but stormed back from a 17-0 deficit for the stunning win. The Hokies reached the national championship game the following season, making this perhaps the unlikeliest result of all-time.
- Texas State 30, Houston 13 (2012): The Bobcats, in their first game transitioning up from the FCS, were 35-point underdogs.
- Central Michigan 24, Western Michigan 21 (2000): The Chippewas were 34.5-point underdogs to their in-state rivals. Perhaps the only thing more surprising than the result is the fact anyone was betting on MAC football in the year 2000.
- Liberty 48, Baylor 45 (2017): The Flames were 34-point underdogs in The Baptist Bowl. In retrospect, this was a terrible line considering the turmoil at Baylor following the Art Briles scandal. The Bears went 1-11 in Matt Rhule’s first season.
- James Madison 21, Virginia Tech 16 (2010): The Dukes were 33.5-point underdogs to the No. 13 Hokies, who are apparently good for one of these choke jobs once every decade or so.