Lake Michigan water levels expected to break records in latest 6-month forecast

KALAMAZOO, Mich. — Shrinking beaches, flooded river channels, dune and property erosion are just some of the impacts plaguing West Michigan lakeshore communities.

For those dealing with the high water levels along Lake Michigan shoreline, it looks like the headache won't go away any time soon. Colder air can't hold as much moisture as warm air, so during the the winter months lake levels typically go into a seasonal decline due to less liquid equivalent precipitation.

"The conditions that we've seen across the Great Lakes basin, in terms of precipitation over the past several months, has allowed the lakes to decline slower than they typically do," Keith Kompoltowicz, a hydrologists with the Army Corps of Engineers, said.

High water means practically anytime there are strong onshore winds at the lakeshore, waves and flooding become an issue. The National Weather Service office in Grand Rapids has issued 18 separate lakeshore flood advisories this year, and five lakeshore flood warnings.

Bob Dukesherer, a senior forecaster with the National Weather Service office in Grand Rapids, said when the lake level is high, it translates to more lakeshore flood alerts being issued.

"When the lake level is down, we're not issuing lake flooding and erosion statements because it would take so much to run it up the beach into town and affect something life of property-wise," Dukesherer said. "Now, it's become commonplace because there's threat to life and property practically every time the wind comes up."

How we got here

According to data from the Army Corps of Engineers, in 2019 the Lake Michigan-Huron water table tied its record high for July. In a chart displaying 100 years of water level data, it was a culmination of years of rising levels that started following a record low point in 2013.

If a six-foot person standing at the water's edge in 2013 were fast-forwarding to July 2019, their head would be underwater.

In 2019, Grand Rapids was expected to set a record for the wettest year. As of December 12, 2019, at 48.79 inches of total precipitation, the city was only one hundredth on an inch behind 2008, which currently holds the record. With over half the month left and plenty of opportunities for precipitation left, it's likely Grand Rapids will set a record by the end of 2019.

Looking at a breakdown of statewide precipitation rankings from the National Centers for Environmental Information from December 2018 through November 2019, several states reported the wettest 12 month period for those months.

2019 hasn't been the only wetter-than-normal calendar year for the region. Several wetter-than-normal years have contributed to the lake level rise. Record rainfall events, like the one that left parts of downtown Kalamazoo flooded in February 2018, have also contributed a higher water table across much of the state and region.

The latest forecast

2020 is pacing ahead of 2019 in terms of our starting point.

"We're looking to start 2020 some 15-inches higher than we started 2019," Kompoltowicz said.

Precipitation outlooks for the December through February time frame from the Climate Prediction Center feature above average conditions as the most likely scenario for a majority of the northern United States.

In their latest six-month outlook issued in early December, hydrologists forecast records to be broken for the highest water level in February and March 2020. Records could also come close in April and May 2020.

Improvement in sight?

Weather, specifically precipitation trends, will ultimately be the driving force to alleviate the high water levels.

Meteorologists and hydrologists think the problem could take months to years to see any improvement, and it all depends on precipitation trends.

"Instead of setting record year after record year, we need to start going the other direction, which is having dry years," Dukesherer said.

It will take much drier conditions sustained over longer periods of time to see levels return to average.

Looking at the 100 years of water level data on record for the Lake Michigan-Huron basin, it's natural to see some gradual ups and downs, but there isn't enough data to suggest a clearly defined pattern.

"There's no defined period or cycle that can be gleaned from that data set, it's just not enough," Kompoltowicz said. "All we can say is levels have fluctuated over that 100 year time period based on the prevailing meteorology of the time."

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