Hotter than Baldwin? Saraland surges in latest census estimates

The new Saraland High School opened after Saraland launched its own city school system in 2008. Years later, that system is seen as one reason for the city's growth. (Kate Mercer/AL.com file)

Daphne and Fairhope can't take the population growth crown for granted anymore, according to new census numbers that show Saraland catching fire.

The latest city population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau confirm some familiar trends. Mobile's still sagging. In Baldwin County, Eastern Shore communities continue to boom, as do counterparts inland and on the coast.

But the Saraland surge is something new. The estimated 547 people that Saraland gained from 2016 to 2017 is nearly as many as the 624 it gained from 2010 to 2016. Among Alabama cites with population greater than 10,000, that was the second-fastest single-year growth by percentage, at 3.9 percent. (Only Chelsea, a slightly smaller city southeast of Birmingham, did better. It racked up 4.15 percent growth.)

While the numbers might be new, the phenomenon isn't exactly a surprise. Anyone driving  through Saraland on I-65 can see growth at Exit 13. A new Infirmary Health medical center opened in December, followed by a new Cracker Barrel in April and a new hotel. A Publix will anchor a new shopping center being developed nearby.

In December, as the Infirmary center opened, executives cited a swelling population. "This is the fastest growing part of Mobile County," Kenny Breal, Infirmary Health's vice president for clinical operations, said at the time. "The need was there."

Dr. John L. Dixon Jr., one of the doctors working at the facility, said one of the major factors was the success of the Saraland School System since the city voted in 2006 to break off from the Mobile County Public School System.

"We spent 20 years watching people move to Daphne for the school system," he said, but now he saw them moving back for the same reason.

The system opened in 2008, supported by a half-cent sales tax hike. A $30 million new Saraland High School opened in 2010, followed by a new elementary school. In 2015 the city approved a 7.5 mill property tax increase to fund ongoing capital improvements for its schools.

Veronica Hudson, a Saraland city council member who also has served on the school board, said that education consistently is the top priority for people thinking about moving to Saraland. But its low crime rate and easy access to Mobile also are major selling points. "Crime is almost nonexistent in Saraland," she said.

Hudson said the flip side of the growth is a tight housing market. "We're building a lot of new subdivisions," she said. Subdivision approvals and annexations are big part of the council's business, she said.

Infrastructure was another challenge, she said. With most of the growth coming west of I-65, the corridors across the interstate risk becoming bottlenecks. The Alabama Department of Transportation has a major project under way at Exit 15, where Celeste Road crosses. That can't get done soon enough, Hudson said.

A year after estimates showed Huntsville passing Mobile as the state's third-biggest municipality, Mobile notched another down year, losing an estimated 1,375 people or 0.69 percent of its population, bringing it to 190,265. From 2010 to 2017 it lost 4,846 or 2.48 percent. (Huntsville continued to put distance on its lead, adding 2,629 people for a 1.37 percent rise to 194,585.)

In his recent "State of the city" address, Mobile Mayor Sandy Stimpson cited the city's stagnant population was "one very disturbing indicator that cannot be ignored" and which would take "a tremendous community collaboration" to improve.

Stimpson cited education as a key issue in that speech, and made what might have been an oblique reference to rumors that an unidentified group is backing a feasibility study for a city-county school split. "Mobilians want to explore options," he said. "Options that will lead to all of our children getting a better education. Our job is to advocate for our students. We can and we must do better."

Crime was another major issue, Stimpson said, as was the need to catch up on deferred maintenance of city buildings. But he also cited some promising possibilities, such as an airport swap bringing passenger service to the Mobile Aeroplex at Brookley, and improvements to the Mobile Fire-Rescue Department.

In retrospect, he might as well have named Saraland when he offered a stark call to action.

"Based on the historical trend," he said, "if we do not reduce the crime rate, improve public education and improve our housing stock, we will be providing lots of jobs for people living outside of the city."

Context provided by the new census estimates shows that others have fared worse than Mobile. Prichard showed a one-year estimated loss of 222 people, falling 1.01 percent to 21,732. Selma shed 2.46 percent of its population between 2016 and 2017, and 11.5 percent from 2010 to 2017.

Baldwin has continued to do its thing:

Fairhope -- up by 744 people to 20,935, making for a one-year gain of 3.68 percent and a jaw-dropping, state-leading seven-year gain of 36.6 percent.

Foley -- an estimated 2016-2017 gain of 588 for a total of 18,288. That's a one-year gain of 3.32 percent and a seven-year gain of 25.1 percent.

Gulf Shores -- up by 296 to 11,809 -- a one-year gain of 2.57 percent and a seven-year gain or 21.2 percent.

Daphne -- an estimated gain of 452, rising 1.77 percent to 25,960. That's a 2010-17 gain of 20.3 percent.

(Note: Orange Beach has a population below 10,000 and wasn't included in this round of data.)

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