THERE has been an alarming outbreak of what can only be called cross party co-operation in Scottish politics. Tomorrow, the SNP and the Tories will discuss amendments to the Brexit Bill; Nicola Sturgeon is backing Labour over the Westminster “power grab”; and now the Liberal Democrats appear to be in some kind of dialogue with the SNP over their call for a repeat referendum. No, not on Scottish independence but a repeat ballot on the European Union. “An Exit from Brexit” as the spritely new leader of the LibDems, Vince Cable, 74, puts it.

Influential voices in the SNP are urging Nicola Sturgeon to take this overture seriously. First, it gives everyone another referendum to talk about instead of the stalled one on independence.

A second EU referendum would also legitimise the idea of “think-twice” referendums on other constitutional issues. But attractive as it might be to impale the Scottish LibDem leader, Willie Rennie, on the horns of a contradiction (how can he advocate a repeat referendum on the EU and rule out one on independence?) there could be risks for the SNP in supporting a second EU referendum. The prospect of not one but two huge constitutional decisions in the next two years would probably scunner Scottish voters.

The confusion about the independence referendum is bad enough. Ms Sturgeon tried to park or, as she put it, “reset” a second referendum three months ago but few of her troops seemed to get the news and many apparently believe a referendum is still imminent. Admittedly, Ms Sturgeon’s statement to Parliament was a masterpiece of constructive ambiguity.

But at the time, most observers understood that a Scottish referendum was being cancelled pending Brexit. The Scottish Green Party leader, Patrick Harvie, (who was not best pleased), was adamant that the First Minister had effectively ruled it out until after the Article 50 deadline of March 2019. Ms Sturgeon did not really take issue with that interpretation.

But it’s important to examine what she actually said. She told MSPs on June 27, that, after the General Election when the SNP lost one-third of its seats, she had spoken to “hundreds of people” across Scotland to gauge their views on the referendum question. Many, she reported, “agree that our future should not be imposed on us, but feel that it is too soon right now to make a firm decision about the precise timing of a referendum [on independence]. They want greater clarity about Brexit to emerge first.”

She said she was therefore abandoning her original timetable of a referendum in the autumn of 2018 and instead would return to parliament around that time to discuss future timing. It’s theoretically possible that a referendum could spontaneously ignite before March 2019 when Britain formally leaves the EU. However, it seems highly unlikely.

Given that Westminster has to give assent, and all the non-nationalist parties at Westminster oppose an early referendum, there seems little likelihood of a Section 30 order (permitting Holyrood to hold one) being passed by MPs in time. The First Minister will anyway be extremely leery about calling another referendum unless the opinion polls are consistently running at somewhere approaching 60 per cent for Yes. This was the figure that was widely trailed at the time of her 2015 conference speech in Aberdeen. Support for independence has been rising over the summer, in some polls, but it hasn’t reached anywhere near that level.

Moreover, any Brexit referendum would presumably have to come before any independence referendum since the Scottish people, according to Ms Sturgeon’s own soundings, are in no mood to reassess their relationship with the UK until they are clear about the UK’s future relationship with Europe. This would also crowd out any possibility of second vote on independence before March 2019, even if the Scottish Parliament were able to secure Westminster’s assent. It’s hard not to conclude that this effectively puts off another independence referendum until after the next Scottish Parliamentary elections, due in 2021.

Of course, since Theresa May has refused to agree to any independence referendum, this speculation might seem academic. But there is even less likelihood of another Brexit referendum happening, even if there were a pro-EU Tory backbench rebellion. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has moved on the single market but he is still adamant that the result of the June 2016 EU referendum has to be honoured. What is much more likely is that the forthcoming transition period, in which the UK will remain largely in the single market, will be extended, perhaps indefinitely, by all-party agreement. But the UK will by then be firmly out of the EU, so there would be little point in a referendum to state the obvious.

Much the same might equally be true about a Scottish independence referendum in 2021/2. Scotland will by then be firmly out of the EU and negotiating its place in a new UK trading arrangement replacing the Brussels one. At any rate, the option of Scotland staying in the EU before the UK left will no longer be on the table if, indeed, it ever was. This might make it more difficult to generate public support for another independence referendum for, well, a generation.

At any rate, the Scottish Parliamentary elections in 2021 will surely decide the matter. If there is a groundswell of post-Brexit support for independence, the SNP will do well; if there isn’t, there will be no majority at Holyrood to demand a referendum. But Ms Sturgeon could do us all a favour by admitting that there will be no Scottish referendum before then. This would allow her to maximise support for her drive for a soft Brexit – a project that actually looks like it could succeed.

In the meantime, the SNP will have to be careful talking about fantasy referendums. The thought of having another two emotionally intense and divisive ballots on major constitutional issues is just too much of a good thing. When it comes to referendums, less is more.