MORE than 90,000 staff will be needed over the next two decades to combat the “ticking timebomb” in social care, new research suggests.

Experts say a further investment of £3.5 billion is needed in Scotland to cope with the rising number of people over 85 and in need of long-term care.  Financial services firm JLL said over the next ten years, 37,000 more staff will be required in the social care sector, with a further 54,000 in the following decade, a combined 91,000.

However this is set against a decline in the overall nationwide workforce by more than 171,000 over the same period.  In August the Herald also highlighted figures from JLL which estimated 10,800 care home beds would be needed by 2026 to cope with projected closures and population growth.

Alan Bennett, director at JLL Alternatives in Scotland, said: “Our report shows a growing need across Scotland for additional staff in the care sector to look after older people with long-term care needs.  “However, the issue of staff shortages is severely compounded by a reduction in the pool of the working age population.”

Dr Donald Macaskill, chief executive of Scottish Care, representing independent health and social care providers, said that though it was “difficult to quantify” the precise amount of investment, “we would concur that there is requiring a substantial investment within the sector to take account of the rising demographic and the increased dependency of those entering into care homes”.  He also said that, compounded with current workforce crisis, the current system was not sustainable without serious investment.

Keith Robson, Age Scotland’s Charity Director said the body was “concerned about issues in the care sector around funding and staffing” and it was vital to plan ahead to prepare for future care needs.  Mr Bennett also said that the shortfalls would be most pronounced in the areas of Lanarkshire, Fife and the Highlands.

A spokeswoman for Health and Social Care North Lanarkshire said it was “well aware of the ticking timebomb of a lack of staff in this field set against increasing demand,” and was working to address the problem, including creating a Health and Social Care Academy aimed at creating jobs in this sector.

Fiona McKay from Fife Health and Social care Partnership, said the body had “developed a range of models of community care as part of our strategic planning process, to ensure that people receive the right care and support, at the right time, in the right setting based on individual needs”.

Meanwhile a spokesman from NHS Highlands said the health board was working with the University of the Highlands and Islands and a range of further education colleges to “continue to assess and monitor staff requirements using workforce planning and explain ways by which local education providers can train adequate staff”.

Health Secretary Shona Robison said that the NHS was investing almost half a billion of frontline funding into social care and integration giving more people the right care in the right setting.

She said: “The integration of health and social care plays a key part in this, by placing a greater emphasis on community-based and preventative care, which will equip our services for future challenges.”