In an expected move Thursday, Madison Bumgarner rejected his qualifying offer from the Giants, making him a free agent for the first time in his career.
San Francisco knew this was likely when it declined to move Bumgarner at the deadline. The Giants had a scorching July and chose to hold onto the top starting pitcher on the market, opting instead for subtler moves — shipping out older relievers from a strong bullpen to bring back talented position player prospects and make room in the pen for emerging young arms.
That angle for a potential playoff run never materialized once August rolled around, and now the decision not to trade Bumgarner could come back to bite the Giants.
If he walks in free agency, the Giants will receive only a compensatory pick.
As reporter Kerry Crowley wrote this morning, the Braves, Yankees and Padres have already been linked to Bumgarner in free agency.
Let’s examine how a veteran Bumgarner fits with each club:
Braves
Atlanta has won the NL East each of the last two years with a young MVP candidate in Ronald Acuña Jr. alongside the established Freddie Freeman.
The Braves recognized a need for pitching and signed Dallas Keuchel partway through the 2019 season. Keuchel disappointed, as did 2018 breakout starter Mike Foltynewicz. Bumgarner would help anchor a rotation that may lose Keuchel and Julio Tehran in free agency. And his North Carolina roots can’t hurt the Braves’ chances.
Yankees
New York has long been known as a club that’s willing to shell out some cash to poach a mid-to-late prime star from his original team.
But the Yankees just did that last year by trading for Seattle’s James Paxton. He, Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka and J.A. Happ are all signed through 2020, and Domingo German is still under team control, though a domestic violence investigation could mean he misses some time to start 2020.
The retiring C.C. Sabathia’s rotation spot would be open for Bumgarner (especially if the Yankees find a way to move on from the aging Happ), barring the early promotion of a prospect like Deivi Garcia, who’s climbed their farm system quickly.
Giants
San Francisco has veterans Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija under contract for 2020, and will presumably fill much of the rest of the rotation with young arms if Bumgarner doesn’t come back.
Tyler Beede and Logan Webb showed enough in 2019 to pencil them into the 2020 rotation, but that still leaves a spot open for Bumgarner or another free agency find, plus whatever innings are left if aging starters Cueto and Samardzija miss significant time again with injury.
The question is how much a retooling Giants team is willing to spend to keep one of the faces of the franchise.
Padres
San Diego finished last in the NL West in 2019, but has significantly more hope in the near future than the Giants do. No pitcher over the age of 27 threw more than 82 innings for them, including their top seven starting pitchers. More reinforcements are coming in 2020 as MLB’s top left-handed prospect Mackenzie Gore is expected to debut at some point next season.
A veteran ace like Bumgarner could help show San Diego’s young arms how to approach major-league ball, and have the added bonus of accelerating the Padres’ trajectory like many expected Manny Machado to do last year.
According to Sports Betting Dime, Atlanta is the favorite to sign the Giants’ postseason hero at 3/2 odds, and San Francisco is just behind at 4/1. The Mets (+400), Phillies (+400), Yankees (+1000) and Astros (+1200) were the only other teams listed when the odds were first listed two weeks ago — San Diego was off the board.
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