Commentary

Setting the bar for Arkansas-Portland State

Portland State quarterback Davis Alexander is shown during a 2018 game.

LITTLE ROCK — Barring the biggest upset in Razorback football history, numbers from the Portland State game will be analyzed to the Nth degree and yield meaningless projections vs. Ole Miss and beyond.

Whether bowl talk begins after Arkansas wins 66-0 or despair is rampant following 27-14 or the final score is somewhere in between, statistics from the game are irrelevant and the reason is simple. The Vikings are a lower-level Football Championship Subdivision team and even the best FCS teams are generally inferior to the 130 FBS teams. San Jose State, UTEP, East Carolina, Western Kentucky, Colorado State, Kansas and Temple were the FBS members that lost to FCS teams last year. Two were 1-11 and four were 3-9. Arkansas plays three of those teams this year.

A couple of remarks from higher-ups in the Portland State Athletic Department plus on-field results provide clues about the Vikings’ football program:

—Portland State coach Bruce Barnum said upsetting the Razorbacks is one thing, but the big deal about playing in Fayetteville is “I want our guys to see the pageantry of college football, of the SEC.” Barnum even looked into making the Aug. 31 game a true road trip, traveling more than 4,000 miles via bus, but decided renting three buses at $9,000 per day for five days would be too costly and opted to fly.

—Athletics director Valerie Cleary has said playing road games this year against Arkansas and Boise State for almost $1 million is “a necessary evil.”

—Portland State’s home games are in a 7,600-seat stadium that is a 25-minute drive from campus when there is no traffic, and the school is considering a partnership involving a stadium at a high school. Until this year, the Vikings played some home games at a stadium with a capacity of about 20,000, but encountered scheduling conflicts with Portland Timbers soccer.

—The Vikings were 5-19 in the Big Sky Conference the last three years. Against FBS schools Nevada and Oregon last year, the Vikings lost 72-19 and 62-14 — routs that undermine the boast that nine returning players on offense and eight on defense are considered starters.

Citing such evidence, a Portland State victory would be far more surprising than The Citadel’s 10-3 upset in the UA’s 1992 season opener and that outcome immediately cost coach Jack Crowe his job. At least, that 1-AA team won 11.

Pursuing a meaningful interpretation of UA statistics vs. Portland, maybe the best approach is to establish doable minimums.

Some standards offered are only for 30 or 45 minutes because the game could get out of hand early and produce misleading final stats. For example, Arkansas beat Eastern Illinois 55-20 last year, but the Panthers led in first downs and their quarterbacks completed 67.5 percent of 40 attempts.

ON OFFENSE

—Score at least six touchdowns during the first three quarters and total more than 55 points. The Razorbacks have not topped 55 since scoring 63 vs. Tennessee-Martin in 2015.

—More than 100 yards rushing by Rakeem Boyd on a dozen carries or less, another 200 yards by the other running backs, and an average of 6.0 yards or more by all running backs.

—Ben Hicks and Nick Starkel each complete more than two-thirds of their pass attempts and combine for 250-plus yards. For the game, completions net more than 350 yards.

—Much-ballyhooed freshman wide receivers Trey Knox, Treylon Burks, T.Q. Jackson and Shamar Nash total at least 10 catches, including two TDs of 30 yards or more. This assumes Knox plays. He has missed several practices of late with what has been described as an illness.

—Convert on third down more than two-thirds of the time in the first half. Last year, the Razorbacks moved the chains barely 29 percent of the time. SEC championship participants Alabama and Georgia were third and ninth in the country at 51.88 and 47.71 percent.

ON DEFENSE

—Hold the Vikings to less than a 50 percent completion percentage during the first three quarters and intercept two passes, including a pick by one of four highly touted freshman defensive backs. An improved secondary is a given and both of Portland State’s returning quarterbacks completed less than 53 percent last year.

—Restrict FCS All-American tight end Charlie Taumoepeau to three catches and less than 50 yards in the first half. In nine games last year, Taumoepeau averaged almost 21 yards per reception.

—Allow less than 100 yards rushing in the first 45 minutes and hold the Vikings to an average of 3.3 yards per try for the game. Last year, a half-dozen of Arkansas’ SEC opponents ran for 175 yards or more.

—Stop the Vikings on 75 percent of third-down situations for 60 minutes. Last year, Arkansas opponents converted almost 39 percent of the time, but even the Razorbacks’ second unit should be better than the Vikings’ best.

—Give up no more than one score in the first half and 10 points in the first 45 minutes.

If dead set on projecting Arkansas’ W-L record after one game, the Razorbacks achieving more than half the minimums would be encouraging.