How will Chhattisgarh’s X-factor Ajit Jogi impact polls?

By Sriram Karri

As Ajit Jogi emerges from his house and waits for his wheel chair to be pushed into his campaign car, people waiting outside his house stand up and rent high-spirited slogans.

‘Hope of Chhattisgarh’, ‘Prophet of development’, ‘Exemplar of how a leader should be’, and ‘Champion of poor’, they holler in Chattisgarhi, a distinct dialect of the predominantly tribal state, carved out of the eastern part of Madhya Pradesh in 2000.

COP TURNED LEADER
Mr Jogi, who was formerly a Congressman and the separate state’s first chief minister, is now the third force in Chhattisgarh. He founded the Janata Congress Chhattisgarh (JCC), which has tied up for the electoral battle in 90 seats with Ms Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj party and holds the potential to change the very nature of the politics here.

Wearing a nice crisp blue kurta, adorning a purple party khandwa around his neck, he smiles, shakes hands and exchanges greetings. He gives instructions to people with a seasoned panache. A former IPS officer turned bureaucrat turned politician, who has been in Parliament, and one of the most popular political faces in Chattisgarh, Mr Jogi is giving nightmares to both three-time incumbent chief minister Dr Raman Singh, and the Opposition Congress, which senses a chance at power.

No one can be too sure how Jogi, and his party, ‘Jogi Congress’ as it is popularly referred to, will impact the elections. Would he become a king, as he hopes, a king maker, or a spoiler – in a small state where victory margins have been wafer things in the last two rounds.

TINY VOTE MARGINS
In the previous elections in 2013, in a de facto bi-party contest, the BJP could bettered the Congress, reeling from a massive Naxal attack months before the elections that wiped most of its top brass, including Vidya Charan Shukla, only by less than 0.8 percent vote difference. In 2008, Ayurvedic doctor turn politician, Dr Singh led BJP to a victory over Congress with a difference in votes of less than 1.2 percent.

Today, across the State, which saw a record voter turnout in Bastar division despite a call for poll boycott by the Maoists, despite the buzz of Mr Jogi’s role, the essential battlelines are drawn predominantly between the ruling BJP, where the longest-serving chief minister of the saffron party, still has a good image, with surprisingly low anti-incumbency, and a divided Congress without a face.

RAMAN SINGH’S WELFARE
The popularity and appeal of the BJP in Chattisgarh lies in the unique nature of the state. It has one of the largest forest covers as a state in the country, meaning, it is filled with forests and its large tribal establishment continues to live with traditional livelihood. Its aspirations for development are lower compared to people elsewhere, especially in the southern districts.

In that sense, Chhattisgarh is better understood compared with its eastern neighbour Odisha, and Dr Raman Singh with Naveen Patnaik, rather than with Madhya Pradesh.

Here, Dr Singh unleashed welfare schemes, especially the unparalleled PDS schemes, which have earned him the sobriquet of ‘chawal baba’ (rice saint – for the Rs 1 per kilo fine rice scheme that earned him trust for nearly fifteen years now). Now the BJP has distributed mobile phones and a health care and other measures, and enough of development, to ensure it can make an unprecedented fourth term for a BJP chief minister.

The Congress, despite being perceived as split between the game of thrones and continual oneupmanship of its several CM aspirants, believes it will dislodge Raman Singh because people are vexed and are seeking change. The irony is not lost – whereas the BJP is showcasing and projecting Raman Singh as its face, the Congress is banking on its central leadership.

“Rice, rice and rice,” said Pradeep Kumar Sahu, 44, a small businessman, resident of Bilaspur, one of the biggest cities of the state, responding to what the BJP has done or stands for. “Nothing else. No development. No jobs. How many youth of our state are working outside because the state has not created jobs for them in the last 15 years for them?”

TRANSFORMATION
Dismissing the notion that the BJP has been a single-themed government, Dr Shivam Arun Kumar, academic and political analyst, said, “when the State was formed it had the lowest per capita income, lowest nutrition and an abysmally low score on Human Development index in the country. The BJP created and solidified the benchmark-worthy PDS and rice distribution to ensure the first basic need was met. Over the last decade, development has been rampant. Houses under PM Awas Yojana, gas connections under Ujwala, and a great network of roads have transformed the infrastructure.”

Talking about the change in focus from pure welfare in the dole format to human resource development, Dr Kumar said, “we had two universities, now we have over 30. There is an IIT, IIIT, and IIM. Schools in every village, scholarship schemes for girls across schools and colleges, free education – media and outsiders miss this transformation. We are set to become an educational hub and an industrial powerhouse.”

Chhattisgarh is also India’s largest power producing state, with several government PSUs and private producers harnessing the rich mineral base of the region, but others insist the development has only exposed the cronyism and rampant inequalities, which is reflected in the social unrest.

WELFARE, DEVELOPMENT OR CHANGE?
In 27 districts of the State grouped as five divisions - Surguja, Bilaspur, Durg, Raipur and Bastar, while the southern-most Bastar division is marked by Maoist control and unabated violence, the divisions of Bilaspur and Raipur have seen the bulk of the transformation and urbanisation. While Bastar seeks an end to violence, people in the other four divisions are seeking change, and faster and more meaningful development.

Jogi becomes a big factor for a variety of reasons, one of which is the image of his government being a development-oriented leader. His alliance with the BSP is promising to bring back rapid-pace development, without compromising on the welfare schemes.

“Jogi is restricted to Bilaspur district, and is a factor only in a handful of constituencies, mostly polling from the Satnami votes. He will impact the Congress, because he has pulled out its cadre. Actually, he will ensure the BJP wins with a bigger margin and more seats,” said Dr Kumar.

Mr Sahu feels there is more to it. “While we want the BJP out, there was little the Congress did to inspire a sense of alternative. Jogi, our first chief minister, is the new hope. Not only will he win and become the next chief minister but also bring the development and large number of jobs the state needs.”

Most people put Mr Jogi as a spoiler whose alliance with the BSP will bag around 10 seats, leaving the remaining 80 out of 90 for the BJP and Congress to try to snatch a majority. Some argue that Jogi will actually cause a massive dent into the anti-incumbency vote seeking change, and ironically, help Raman Singh retain power.

JCC supporters know that if the battle is tight, and neither Dr Singh nor the Baghel-Deo-others of the Congress manage a majority, Jogi will call the shots. Or repeat a Bengaluru syndrome of the third and smallest party being able to wag the larger partner.

“For development like Karnataka, people of Chhattisgarh must vote like people of Karnataka. Give BJP the big numbers but short of majority, let Jogi become CM forcing the Congress hand just to keep BJP out. Even 10 seats are enough,” said Mr Sahu.

The sloganeers outside Jogi’s house as he lets his wheelchair be mounted on to his car and ride off would take it.

(Sriram Karri is the author of the bestselling novel, Autobiography of a Mad Nation and The Spiritual Supermarket, a columnist and a political analyst.)