Madhya Pradesh election: Times Now-CNX pre-poll survey predicts win for BJP

Madhya Pradesh is set to return Shivraj Singh Chouhan's BJP government for a record fourth consecutive term but with a much reduced majority, a Times Now-CNX pre-poll survey has predicted.
The opinion survey projected the ruling BJP to emerge first with 122 out of a total 230 seats, just a few seats over the halfway mark of 115; and the Congress to come second with an improved tally of 95. Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is expected to win 3 seats and others - including Gondwana Gantantra Party (GGP), Samajwadi Party(SP), Left Front and Independents - the remaining 10.

The predicted vote share reflected this swing, with the BJP dropping to 41.75% and the Congress improving its position to 38.52. The BSP's vote share too dropped slightly to 5.41.

In 2013, BJP came first with 165 seats and 44.88% of votes while the Congress came a distant second with 65 seats with 36.38% of the votes. The BSP had managed only 3 and Independents, 4.

An earlier survey done by CNX in the first week of October predicted the BJP to win 128 seats, Congress to get 85 and BSP, 8.

But an estimated fall in tally did not necessarily show a loss in popularity for CM Chouhan. 'Mamaji', as he is affectionately called in the state, was preferred as the next chief minister by 40.11% of the respondents, while Congress veteran Kamal Nath and young gun Jyotiraditya Scindia found favour with only 20.32 and 19.65% among those surveyed.

Region-wise predictions showed the BJP having an edge over the opposition in all areas - Malwa Nimar, Baghelkand, Bhopal and Mahakaushal - other than Chambal. The saffron party's domination was seen the most in its traditional stronghold of Malwa Nimar.

In 2013, BJP trumped the Congress by big margins in all the five regions, especially in Malwa Nimar where it had won 61 of the 72 seats.

Comparisons given by CNX showed the Congress had made some gains in four of the five regions since the October survey, but apparently not enough to push it past the half-way mark.

Madhya Pradesh goes to polls in a single phase on November 28, and the results will be declared on December 11.

Agency CNX Media said it used its exclusive 'Super 30' methodology for the survey, interviewing 9240 people across randomly selected 77 constituencies.