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    Will MNF take Mizoram from Congress or will BJP surprise all with a post-poll alliance to storm to power?

    Synopsis

    Will MNF take Mizoram from Congress or will BJP surprise all with a post-poll alliance to storm to power?

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    More Mizo people talk about giving the regional party a chance.
    AIZAWL: Mizoram is a land of many contrasts. Three decades have passed since it became a state of the Indian union but an Indian citizen still needs an inner line permit to set foot here. High literacy (second only to Kerala) and record unemployment go hand in hand — as do high arable land and low production. It is a serene land despite suffering insurgency for 20 years. Yet it is not common to find the state on tourists’ bucket list.

    On the political front, women voters outnumber men (3.93 lakh females versus 3.74 lakh males in 2018). But women have had minimal representation in the legislature (only four elected women MLAs since the first poll in Mizoram).

    The Church — there’s one in almost every corner of the state — is active in matters such as polling, issuing guidelines for people and parties. Sun rises early and sets rather later for people in politics here — CM Lalthanhawla of Congress is 79, his opponent, Mizo National Front (MNF) head and former militant Zoramthanga is 74, assembly speaker Hiphei, who jumped ship recently, is 81. The state is 95% tribal and almost 100% Christian.

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    After the Mizo Accord was signed in 1986, resulting in the rebels joining politics, the government has shifted between Congress and MNF — each lasting not more than two terms. As the state gears up for assembly elections on November 28, the questions on everybody’s lips are: will the Congress manage a hat trick or willpower shift to MNF again? Can the BJP pull off a Meghalaya-like political coup by post-poll tie-ups? While the answers will be revealed after counting on December 11, ET Magazine takes a look at the players on the ground.

    Congress’ Chances
    Mizoram remains the Congress’ last bastion in the NE. The party increased its tally in the 40-member assembly from 32 in 2008 to 34 in 2013. But the good news seems to end there for the party. Historically, neither Congress nor MNF has lasted for more than two terms in power consecutively, and the Lalthanhawla-led Congress government is in its second consecutive term.

    Poor infrastructure and the lifting of a liquor ban, which led to many deaths across the state, has put the party in the crosshairs of the public. Congress has also seen a series of resignations, including that of the speaker, the home minister and three MLAs. This reduced its assembly strength to 29 and created a wave in favour of the main opponent, MNF. Unemployment, underdeveloped agriculture, poverty are the other issues bogging the party down.

    The fact that Lalthanhawla is not unpopular and that the party is highlighting Mizo National Front (MNF)'s pact with the "anti-Christian" BJP is helping the Congress score some points. Since 2016, the Congress has lost Assam, Manipur, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Nagaland and Tripura to BJP and its allies. Congress might not lose the state to the BJP that easily, but MNF can shake its foundation.

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    MNF's Strategy
    Led by former CM and former secessionist leader Zoramthanga, Mizo National Front is confident of winning the elections. More Mizo people talk about giving the regional party a chance. But there is one factor standing in the way: the Opposition is calling MNF a "proxy" of BJP as it is part of NDA and Northeast Democratic Alliance - a conglomeration of BJP's small allies in the Northeast.

    Since any pact with BJP will hurt sentiments in the Christian-majority state, MNF president Zoramthanga keeps on clarifying he is against BJP and Hindutva, lest he riles Mizo voters. Referring to his pact with BJP-led North-East Democratic Alliance (NEDA), he told ET Magazine: "Congress is our political opponent since the beginning. Since we can't be with the Congress, we are with the BJP, at the Centre. But in Mizoram no one will tolerate the BJP - they are anti-Christian." Even as both the BJP and the MNF are yet to declare an alliance, political circles are abuzz with talks they might support each other after the polls.

    BJP's Game Plan
    With neither booth nor base, BJP is betting on social media. "We will send out messages and videos showing BJP as an equal opportunity party that does not discriminate on the basis of religion, highlighting the case of Goa and Meghalaya where we have many Christian ministers. Besides, we will highlight corruption charges against Congress, the evils of lifting the liquor ban and the backwardness of the state. Modi's clean and incorruptible image will also be highlighted," says a core member of the social media team of Mizoram BJP.

    Till date, it has not been able to open its account in the Christian state. Mizos view BJP with a lot of scepticism. Hence, the saffron party is focussing on nontribals, including (Buddhist) Chakma and animist Brus. Plus, it is banking on the promise of development - something that the state lacks - and "ache din". The BJP has already promised a four-lane highway across the state and two engineering colleges if it wins. "The Congress and the MNF are not fighting each other this time but they are fighting the BJP," Pawan Sharma, BJP Mizoram in-charge, told ET Magazine.

    Like in Meghalaya, BJP is keen on post-poll alliances here also. A Tripura leader campaigning in Mizoram was heard saying that in a fractured postpoll scenario, MNF and BJP could come together. But, she added, MNF can't have a pre-poll alliance with the BJP for fear of a backlash from majority of the Mizos. Which mean till elections, both are single but ready to mingle later.

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    Others in the Game
    National People's Party - led by PA Sangma's son Conrad Sangma, the CM of Meghalaya - a part of NEDA, will make a debut in Mizoram elections. Zoram Exodus Movement - formed by retired priests, government officials and journalists - announced an alliance with Zoram Nationalist Party and Mizoram People's Conference. It will fight polls under the banner of Zoram People's Movement. Anti-corruption watchdog People's Right to Information and Development Implementation Society of Mizoram recently converted itself into a political party and is fighting elections. Its leader Vanlalruata is contesting against CM Lalthanhawla. Total 201 candidates are in the fray. Out of these, only 15 are women. While Congress has given ticket to one woman candidate, ZPM has given to none. BJP, on the other hand, has fielded six women candidates.

    The Bru Factor
    The Bru refugee issue continues to haunt the state. The Brus left the state for Tripura in 1997 following ethnic violence. Several repatriation efforts have turned futile. That the Brus should vote inside Mizoram - as decided by the Election Commission following the ouster of chief electoral officer SB Shashank - and not from refugee camps in Tripura where they are stationed since 1997 is one matter on which all parties agree. But the jury is still out on if the Mizos will break the trend of picking MNF or Congress every 10 years and if the BJP can manage a political coup after polls. Keep watching this space.

    MNF will not get more than 5 seats: Lalthanhawla
    Mizoram Chief Minister Lalthanhawla tells that there is no anti-incumbency in the state and recent defections in the party have only encouraged its cadre.

    How many seats do you expect to win?
    We are holding 34 as of date, an improvement from 32 we won in 2008. We can go up to 32 or even more this time. Things are shaping up in our favour. The problem with the chief election officer and the subsequent events will work in our favour.

    But isn’t there anti-incumbency?
    Not at all. Things are looking up for Congress. How can Mizos forget the misrule under MNF? I have been touring the state and I can say that people’s faith in the Congress is intact.

    But what if MNF ties up with the BJP?
    BJP and the MNF are already together by way of NEDA. This is an undeniable fact even though they have been denying this in public. In fact, some Tripura BJP legislator has already said in a public platform that there is a pact between the two. What more evidence does one need?

    Key legislators, including the home minister and the speaker, have left the Congress. Is there internal dissent or is it the work of the opposition?
    It is true that the home minister and speaker and another MLA have left the Congress. As far as the party is concerned, this exodus has given fresh enthusiasm to party workers, instead of discouraging them. They are saying good riddance. Their leaving the party can’t damage the party. Earlier, workers were nervous because of the bad deeds of these deserters. Now the mood among people is very positive — you can see the trend across Mizoram.

    But your opponent Zoranthanga says Congress will not win more than 10 seats
    This is his wishful thinking. He will not end up with more than five seats.

    Congress will not win more than 10 seats: Zoramthanga
    Mizo National Front leader Zoramthanga tells the state needs prohibition and development.

    Will 2018 see the regular Congress versus MNF fight?
    Yes, very much. We might get 25-30, to put a conservative figure, and the Congress maximum 10.

    What makes you so confident?
    MNF won just five seats in 2013. We shall be able to form the government because just as in Delhi as elsewhere, the Congress is crumbling. It has lost in the entire Northeast. A good number of Congress leaders in Mizoram, including the speaker and the home minister, have left the party. Because of the lack of development and the lifting of prohibition, people are really fed up. There is big anti-incumbency. Besides, the Congress won the last two polls due to EVM tampering.

    What will your first step be if you come to power?
    We will bring prohibition immediately. After prohibition was lifted in Mizoram by Congress, more than 6,000-7,000 local people have died because of low-grade liquor being brought in from outside the state. It’s a big mistake of the Congress — a dangerous step.

    What about the BJP? They seem to be working hard to make inroads in this Christian-dominated state.
    They will fare badly. Mizoram is a Christian state. The BJP should consider themselves lucky if they get one or two seats in Brudominated areas.

    But isn’t your party part of NEDA?
    In Mizoram, ZPM is part of the NDA; they haven’t withdrawn from the NDA.

    And MNF?
    Yes, MNF is part of both NDA and NEDA.

    You say BJP is anti-Christians and yet you are part of the alliances.
    You see, it is for political reasons. At the Centre we could either be with the Congress or the BJP. As the Congress is our long-term opponent, we allied with the BJP at the Centre.

    Even as the Election Commission has said Brus can only vote in Mizoram, there seem to be a reluctance on the part of Brus to come to Mizoram. All past efforts by state and Centre for their repatriation have failed. What can be expected from the MNF?
    I feel only original Mizo Brus should vote but not outside Mizoram. All along, Brus based in Tripura refugee camps have been making excuses — saying time is not ripe, that woodcutting season is on, that Jhum cultivation is going on — to avoid coming back to Mizoram. Fact is they do not have faith in the Congress government. When the new government is formed under MNF in December, the Brus will come back to Mizoram.


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    ( Originally published on Nov 17, 2018 )
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