Who’s in and who’s out of the College Football Playoff after Week 4?
Well, it’s the same group of four teams as last week, but three of the four have new calculated chances of making it, according to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor.
Last week, the algorithm created by ESPN Analytics had Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State and Clemson — in that order — as the top four teams most likely to make the College Football Playoff, with Oklahoma and Penn State as the somewhat distant bubble teams. However after Week 4’s action, Notre Dame has reinserted itself into the mix.
While Alabama continues to pull away from the rest of the crowd, everyone else’s chances of making the playoff are constantly being jumbled up. Here’s how the top teams’ playoff chances look four weeks into the season, via ESPN’s Playoff Predictor.
1. Alabama (4-0)
Playoff: 81 percent
Championship game: 58 percent
Win championship: 39 percent
2. Clemson (4-0)
Playoff: 62 percent
Championship game: 30 percent
Win championship: 13 percent
3. Georgia (4-0)
Playoff: 58 percent
Championship game: 31 percent
Win championship: 15 percent
4. Ohio State (4-0)
Playoff: 51 percent
Championship game: 28 percent
Win championship: 13 percent
Judging by these numbers, college football fans could be looking at an Alabama-Georgia rematch in the national championship game. Of course, the semifinal bowl games would have to match up accordingly, but the Crimson Tide and the Bulldogs have the highest chances of advancing to the title game.
(John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports)
In its first real test of the 2018 season, Alabama pounded Texas A&M, 45-23. Led by quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, the Crimson Tide’s lethal offense put up 524 yards against the Aggies, who had 393. The Heisman Trophy candidate threw for four touchdowns and 387 yards — by far the most for him this season.
Alabama’s playoff chances consistently increase after each game, and they’re up from 78 percent last week, along with a bump in making the championship game, up from 55 percent, and defending its title, up slightly from 37 percent. At this rate, Nick Saban’s team will be pushing 100 percent by the end of October.
After rocking Georgia Tech by almost 30 points Saturday, Clemson’s playoff chances spiked up from 50 percent last week, which previously had the team in the No. 4 spot. After beating Texas A&M, 28-26, in Week 2, the Tigers have likely already defeated their most challenging opponent of the season — or at least until the ACC title game. Along with making the playoffs, their chances of getting into the championship game are up from 22 percent after Week 3 and winning it all increased from just 9 percent. If Clemson keeps destroying its ACC opponents by double digits, its playoff berth is all but guaranteed.
(Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports)
Georgia may have dropped from being the team with the second-best chances of making the playoffs in the last week, but those chances have actually stayed the same. Clemson simply leaped over the Bulldogs, whose playoff chances remain solidly at 58 percent. However, their chances of advancing to the championship game and winning it all are each down by a single percent from last week.
Still in the top four, Ohio State’s playoff chances dropped slightly from 54 percent after Week 3 — moving down from the No. 3 spot as well — with its title game and national championship chances dipping from 30 percent and 15 percent, respectively. Whether the Buckeyes have what it takes to hold onto the No. 4 position will largely be determined by its Week 5 matchup against Penn State, which happens to have the fifth-best playoff chances this week.
The Nittany Lions’ stock is up, and their playoff chances increased to 40 percent from 37 percent last time around. Should they beat Ohio State on Saturday, look for them to make an even bigger move on this list next week.
(Mike Granse-USA TODAY Sports)
Notre Dame’s playoff chances haven’t put the team in the top four since the preseason, but the Fighting Irish aren’t going away easily. They are No. 6 on ESPN’s Playoff Predictor list with a 35 percent chance of getting into the playoffs. Both Penn State and Notre Dame jumped over Oklahoma, which slipped to the No. 7 spot with a 28 percent playoff shot after barely escaping an upset from Army in overtime this week.
After Notre Dame, there is a sizable drop-off for the remaining teams, and you can see the top 25 teams on ESPN’s Playoff Predictor list here.
As ESPN previously explained, the Playoff Predictor formula is based on a team’s strength of record, losses, conference championships, independent status (because of Notre Dame) and the Football Power Index (FPI) — which gauges how well teams are playing based on expectations, or, basically how good each team is. It also considers how the selection committee has acted in the last four years when faced with similar predicaments.
Read more about ESPN’s Playoff Predictor from the preseason and after Week 1, Week 2 and Week 3 on FTW.
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