It could be months before Dane County allows businesses to fully reopen, people to gather for large concerts and festivals and athletes to compete in stadiums full of cheering fans, but the exact time frame and criteria for reaching that point are unknown.
There are few details available for residents of Wisconsin’s second largest county about what the “new normal” — or the last of four phases included in a local strategy — could look like here. Madison and Dane County’s new “Forward Dane plan” was enacted in light of the Supreme Court’s dismissal of a statewide stay-at-home order.
Under the four-phase plan officials released Monday, operations will gradually resume as the county hits certain health care, public health and epidemiology benchmarks. Currently, Madison and Dane County sit in the “prepare for safe reopen” time frame, which allows businesses to prepare for the first phase of reopening that could begin as soon as Tuesday.
If the county progresses through the phases as quickly as possible under the current framework, the earliest Phase 3 (the final one built out under the Forward Dane plan) could begin is at the end of June.
But after that, not much is clear. The plan says residents would remain in Phase 3 “until widespread protections are available,” while details of the next movement — Phase 4 (the “new normal”) — are “to be determined.”
Local experts themselves don’t have many more details. Public Health Madison and Dane County director Janel Heinrich in a Greater Madison Chamber of Commerce virtual luncheon Tuesday tied reaching the “new normal” to a COVID-19 vaccine, which experts have said could take more than a year to develop.
“I think the ‘to be determined’ is where we have a vaccine," she said. "When we have a vaccine available and when we know more about immunity and that could really have an impact on what we can do confidently in different capacities or in different sized gatherings that won’t put us at risk for having another spike in illness again."
Adding that she wasn’t “trying to be cagey or secretive,” Heinrich said she was “trying to leave it open,” adding that Phase 4 would be defined by having more immunity in Madison and Dane County and a vaccine in place supporting that.
Heinrich also agreed that the plan effectively puts on hold concerts and large sporting events — activities that many identify with the state’s capital city — until a vaccine is developed.
“I think that that’s a fair prediction,” she said. “The recommendation, the emerging guidance, the science is that large gatherings are just not going to be a good idea for a long time. (It’s more) possible to do things in bigger groups outside than inside but we really need to see what happens next.”
Those large events are fuel for the local economy, including downtown retail shops and restaurants.
Downtown Madison Inc. president Jason Ilstrup wrote in an email that festivals and other large gatherings "are very important for the quality of life, vitality and economic health of downtown, adding up to nearly 70% of purchases made at downtown retail shops."
"Despite the cancellation of many signature downtown events, we are hopeful our community will continue to support our local small downtown businesses in every way they can, including through new and innovative ways, all while keeping everyone in our community safe and healthy," he added.
Destination Madison president and CEO Deb Archer said in a statement she’s still examining and working to understand the different phases and their potential impact on events locally.
“Destination Madison is focused on working with businesses to ensure all best health and safety practices are in place, so when it’s time to welcome visitors back, people who live in Madison and visitors will have confidence that our community is ready,” she added.
Moving through the phases
Local officials could announce as soon as Friday whether they’ll issue a new order next week moving Madison and Dane County to Phase 1 of their reopening plan, allowing offices, restaurants, bars, retail spaces and others to operate at 25% capacity and lifting more restrictions on activities.
A spokesperson for Public Health Madison and Dane County said employees would assess refreshed data Friday, though a new order wouldn’t be effective until Tuesday.
Dane County's phased reopening plan outlines the next steps for residents.
Going forward, it will be at least two full weeks or one full incubation period for COVID-19 before each new phase is reached, depending on which benchmarks are fully or partially met under the guidelines.
If all progresses smoothly, the interim phase the county could be in the longest is the third — the one before residents reach the “new normal.”
Under the Phase 3 directives, K-12 schools, institutions of higher education and childcare settings would all be opened, but there would still be some restrictions on the operations of bars, restaurants, retail stores, gyms, community centers, churches and indoor shopping malls.
Licensed swimming pools, museums and indoor movie theaters, zoos, amusement parks, bowling alleys, indoor playgrounds and more would be able to operate at 75% capacity, while it’s questionable to what extent “high risk recreational activities” such as contact or team sports would be allowed.
Outdoor gatherings would also be limited to 250 people, not including employees, and all present have to maintain physical distancing, while indoor gatherings would have a maximum of 100 people, excluding workers, with the same distancing requirements.
Heinrich on Tuesday said it’s “quite possible” officials could change the plan.
“There’s data and evidence that’s emerging every day and we are trying to be as adaptive as possible while also being as clear as possible about what we know now and that’s been one of the hardest parts of this whole response,” she said.
UW-Madison says it’s not bound by guidelines
While local officials say it’s unclear legally how local regulations apply to state property, a UW-Madison spokesperson said the university isn’t “expressly bound by Forward Dane.”
That means it’s possible that whatever guidance the university may implement — as it pertains to large gatherings and sporting events, for example — could differ or run contrary to what’s in the broader city/county framework.
UW-Madison spokesperson John Lucas said officials are planning “to consult and cooperate with the city and county as we contemplate any reopening,” adding that for Badgers football, in particular, the institution is waiting on a plan from the Big Ten conference that would be assessed and shared “with city and county leaders before making any decisions.”
Madison Assistant City Attorney Marci Paulsen, though, wrote in an email that there isn’t “a clear-cut legal answer as to when local regulations apply, so we are researching the issue.”
She also declined to comment on the possibility of contradictory county and UW-Madison guidelines, saying she couldn't weigh in "on hypotheticals but we look forward to working with our partners on campus in developing plans that will address the pandemic and the concerns of the community."
Meanwhile, a spokesperson from the Wisconsin Department of Administration didn’t say whether the local orders apply to the Capitol building and state office spaces located in the county.
"The health and safety of the public and state employees remain our top priorities during the COVID-19 pandemic," Molly Vidal wrote in an email. "The State of Wisconsin is continuing to work closely with local governments, including Dane County, to make sure State facilities are opened to the public when the science tells us it is safe to do so."
Those local regulations are now the subject of a legal challenge in federal court. The suit, filed Wednesday against Dane County, Heinrich and 20 other state officials including Gov. Tony Evers, asks that stay-at-home orders issued by cities and counties be invalidated.
"The local orders unlawfully interfere with plaintiffs' rights to work and to worship, to gather and assemble, in violation of their Federal Constitutional Rights," plaintiffs argued.
But Evers’ chief legal counsel Ryan Nilsestuen told reporters Thursday he was “optimistic the lawsuit will go nowhere.”
"Local public health officers have been on the front lines in dealing with the disease and now unfortunately they’re being put at the front lines of the litigation involving these,” he said.
