NEW DELHI: The southwest
monsoon hit
Kerala on Monday on its normal date of onset, the IMD said as it
forecast “above normal” rainfall in
north India, including Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and Delhi, and “normal” seasonal rainfall with certain geographical variations during the June-September period.
The forecast shows that
West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand and northeastern states may get less rainfall than the other regions, but they won’t face deficient rainfall conditions during the season.
Arrival of monsoon in Kerala marks the beginning of the four-month (June-September) rainy season in India which heavily depends on it for more than half of the country’s foodgrain production.
“Monsoon rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 102% of the long period average (LPA) which is 2% more rainfall than what was assumed during the month of April,” said Madhavan Rajeevan, secretary, ministry of earth sciences (MoES), while releasing the IMD’s second stage long range forecast.
Signalling that it will not be a drought year in any of the four IMD’s geographical areas, Rajeevan said there was only 5% probability of deficient rainfall with a huge 41% probability of normal rainfall, 25% probability of above normal and 14% probability of excess rainfall in the country as a whole.
Expand
The second stage long range forecast, meant for predicting month-wise and geographical distribution of rainfall, helps in planning for farming operations, hydro-power and disaster management in different states during the rainy season.
It specified that north-eastern states, Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal may manage to get “normal” rainfall while rest of the country, including central and south India, will definitely get “normal” rainfall.
In its month-wise forecast, the IMD predicted the highest rainfall, quantitatively, for July — the critical month for sowing of Kharif (summer sown) crops in the country.
On the back of the forecast of normal monsoon in April,
the agriculture ministry had already set a target of record foodgrain output (298 million tonnes) for 2020-21 crop year (July-June cycle).
Good rainfall during four-month monsoon season is also good for rabi (winter sown) crops as it contributes to soil moisture for longer period and fills the country’s reservoirs for irrigation during winter.