About two weeks ago, The Athletic asked a question: “Should the Blues be in the Taylor Hall trade talks, and if so, does it make sense? And what would they give up?”
The situation between New Jersey and its pending free-agent seems to be picking up speed, so we figured it was worth an update.
The Devils held Hall out of Friday’s game in Colorado as a healthy scratch, and that will be the case Saturday in Arizona, too, as trade talks continue. The 30th-ranked club is protecting its asset, which The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun confirmed late Friday night.
I’m told Taylor Hall has not been dealt at this point, however, there is some traction in trade talks the Devils are having with teams and so the risk is not worth playing him play at the moment. Stay tuned. https://t.co/i3273tPiDX
— Pierre LeBrun (@PierreVLeBrun) December 14, 2019
Five or six teams are in the mix for Hall, according to LeBrun, including Colorado, Arizona and Florida.
As The Athletic reported two weeks ago, the Blues have expressed interest and continue to monitor the situation. But at this point, they don’t appear to be engaged in serious negotiations — at least serious enough that the Devils are holding out Hall because there’s some traction with the Blues.
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The current buzz seems to be created by the fact that the NHL has a holiday freeze on rosters that runs from midnight Thursday through midnight Dec. 27.
New Jersey might find a partner before the moratorium, but with two more games left on the Devils’ schedule before it goes into effect — Saturday in Arizona and Wednesday against Anaheim — they might give themselves an extra eight days to find the right deal.
Any team trading for Hall before Thursday would probably be meeting or exceeding the asking price of Devils general manager Ray Shero, which with multiple bidders would be steep. Shero will certainly be seeking a trade partner with whom Hall would consider signing a contract extension, maximizing the team’s return.
The Blues would likely look at Hall in terms of a so-called rental player, and based on the trade history of Blues GM Doug Armstrong, it’s not shocking that he isn’t heavily involved in talks at the moment, or that a trade might not happen at all.
If there’s one pattern to take away from the team’s trades under Armstrong’s watch, it’s that he’s patient, and as we documented in late November, he doesn’t often miss. He might not pull off the deal, and there are probably plenty of those we don’t know about, but he doesn’t rush and overpay.
Armstrong had been in contact with Calgary for months before making the deal for Jay Bouwmeester in 2013, and similarly, he stayed in touch with Buffalo for a while before he got the deal he wanted for Ryan O’Reilly in 2018. One might argue that there was far less interest in Bouwmeester and O’Reilly at the time, giving Armstrong more leverage, but he still wouldn’t have made those moves if they weren’t to his liking.
So if Shero is on the cusp of moving Hall before the holiday freeze, it’s likely that Hall isn’t coming to St. Louis.
Blues GM Doug Armstrong hoists the Stanley Cup in Boston on June 12. (Bruce Bennett / Getty Images)
If Hall is still available after the holiday freeze expires Dec. 27, the hype around him will only intensify in the weeks leading up to the NHL trade deadline on Feb. 24. So the price isn’t going to drop, but the Blues’ interest would likely continue, though only if Armstrong is able to work out a deal the way he envisions it shaping the roster and the salary cap.
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Make no mistake, a move for Hall would certainly be an all-in moment, and it would run congruent with how Armstrong has operated recently and continues to posture himself. He re-signed Brayden Schenn to an eight-year, $52 million extension, then traded for Justin Faulk and extended him on a seven-year, $45.5 million contract. Meanwhile, he’s attempting to entice Alex Pietrangelo into a long-term deal. All these moves are made with the purpose of keeping their annual average values (AAV) as low as possible, regardless of the term, and winning now.
The championship window for the Stanley Cup champions is open, and entertaining a trade for Hall reinforces that belief. But it doesn’t mean Armstrong would pay an exorbitant price for Hall to make this season a Cup-or-bust campaign.
If the Blues could bring in Hall, who would fit in nicely on a line with O’Reilly and David Perron, it would improve their chances of winning this season, and it could put them in better position financially next season, freeing up money to retain Pietrangelo. If that’s the case, it’s certainly worth investigating.
What would New Jersey want in return? It will likely seek a 2020 first-round pick and maybe a top prospect such as Jordan Kyrou or Klim Kostin. The Devils, however, need goaltending, and perhaps they’d be interested in swapping Jake Allen for Louis Domingue in the deal. Allen is under contract for one more season at $4.35 million, while Domingue ($1.15 million) will be an unrestricted free agent.
Allen has had a solid season, helping shoulder the load in Jordan Binnington’s first season as the Blues’ starter, but shedding his salary in 2020-21 would allow them more flexibility in the effort to re-sign Pietrangelo. The club is more comfortable with Allen, especially considering his positive attitude toward the situation. But having him is a luxury, and with salary-cap space at a premium, moving Allen while he’s on top of his game might be a wise decision.
Blues backup goalie Jake Allen (left) has one more season left on his contract. (David Banks / USA Today)
In any Hall trade, the Blues would be giving New Jersey considerable assets in the form of a high draft pick and/or a top forward prospect, but several of their skilled veteran forwards (Schenn, O’Reilly, Perron, Vladimir Tarasenko) are under contract for the foreseeable future, and they have players such as Robert Thomas already in the fold. There won’t be room for everyone, and some won’t be ready while the window is open.
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There are many scenarios in which a deal would be ideal for the Blues and other scenarios where it might not. That’s what makes this debate so intriguing. It’s not known what will happen; what is known is that while the Blues are paying attention, Armstrong won’t overpay.
(Top photo of Taylor Hall: Elsa / Getty Images)
