Coronavirus: Cases rise in 36 English local authority areas, with Knowsley seeing biggest increase

The number of COVID-19 cases has gone up in 36 local authority areas in England.

Knowsley, Bolton, and Hammersmith and Fulham experienced the biggest increases in the rate per 100,000 people.

In Knowsley, Merseyside, the rate of infection has gone up from 6 people per 100,000 to 20/100,000.

In Bolton, which is part of Greater Manchester, the rate has increased from 16/100,000 to 23 and in Hammersmith and Fulham, west London, the rate has changed from 6/100,000 to 12.

In all but one of the 36 authority areas, the rate has increased by less than 10/100,000.

The figures from Public Health England cover the week up to 28 June, and are compared with the week before.

The increase has been one or less than one per 100,000 population in 10 upper tier local authorities.

Sky's Laura Bundock writes:

Although 36 areas have seen an increase in the number of cases, this does not mean they are the next candidates for local lockdowns.

There will though be careful analysis locally to try and establish what is happening.

If you look at the four areas with the highest rates; Leicester, Bradford, Barnsley and Rochdale, the curve of cases is stabilising or heading downwards.

What these figures show is the need for real-time, demographically detailed data. That way, any area with an increase in cases can better identify and pinpoint them. Which in turn, can prevent small outbreaks escalating into second spikes.

Public Health England's surveillance report for the last week for which figures are available, suggests that higher numbers of younger people are testing positive, with the number of workplace outbreaks nearly doubling.

It says: "Case detections are highest in adults aged 75 and older and in 15-44-year-olds.

"There has been a small increase in positivity among 0-4-year-olds through Pillar 1 (NHS and PHE) testing.

"There have been declines in the number of care home and hospital incidents, the number of incidents in educational settings remains relatively stable whereas the number of incidents in workplaces has increased from 22 in week 25 to 43 in week 26.

"Since Pillar 2 testing became open to everyone during week 21 more outbreaks of mild disease have been detected in settings with healthy younger populations."

The latest figures show the results of testing for coronavirus under what is known as Pillar 1 and 2 tests.

Previously, the government only made public the results of what is known as Pillar 1 tests.

This is the number of patients and staff testing as positive in hospitals and PHE labs.

Details of positive cases identified in testing centres, known as Pillar 2, have been published in Public Health England's weekly report since 28 May, but this did not include a detailed break down by local authority.

The full, detailed list of Pillar 1 and Pillar 2 weekly cases was not made public until last week.

Initially, most of the tests were carried out under Pillar 1, but more than three quarters of cases in the last three weeks were identified in the wider community and that is what Pillar 2 measures.

Public Health England data of new daily cases in all local authorities around England, does not include the results of Pillar 2 tests.

In Wales, six local authorities saw an increase in the rates of infection, but two of these were much higher than the others because of well publicised localised outbreaks.

Clusters at a food factory in Merthyr Tydfil in South Wales and another at a food factory in Wrexham accounted for nearly all the cases in those two areas.

Anglesey, which saw a spike in cases in the previous week after another outbreak at a food factory, saw a sharp reduction in cases.

Wales does not make a distinction between Pillar 1 and 2 testing, but excludes non-NHS labs tests, which amounts to about 5% of the cases.

In Scotland, the historical data of the number of daily cases found in each local authority is not yet available but data for health authorities is.

But Sky News analysis of Scottish local health board data shows that only three saw a rise and all by 1 person per 100,000 or less.

Analysis

By Isla Glaister, data journalist

The good news from the Public Health England report is that few other local authority areas currently look like candidates for lockdowns. While the infection rate has risen in 36 of the 150 local authority areas, many of the increases are small or from a relatively low starting point.

Those areas recording the highest rises are mainly in the North West, Yorkshire & The Humber and London regions. Knowsley, Merseyside, had the biggest weekly increase in infection rate, two times more than any other authority, rising from 6 cases per 100,000 people to 20 per 100,000.

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Leicester, though, is still clearly in a class of its own at the top of the table. The rate has stabilised over the past week at 141 per 100,000 people but that is still three times the rate of the next placed authority, Bradford (46 per 100,000).

While weekly variation in infection rates give us a snapshot of the virus prevalence what matters most in identifying hotspots is the trend over a period of three to four weeks. Controlling new outbreaks also requires a much granular level of data than published by PHE. Postcode data on new cases is key but currently only shared with councils.

Overall, in England three quarters of new cases are now being identified through community testing, rather than in hospitals. Where those cases are found is also interesting. In the last week, just under half were in workplaces and educational settings. Public Health England will monitor this balance closely as more children return to school and people to work.