LAS VEGAS — Seven teams have been ranked No. 1 in the AP poll this season. I rarely look at the college basketball poll, which exists only to stir up fan and media interest.
Baylor, the latest team to top the poll, nearly was upset as a 10-point home favorite Monday night. If a late 3-point shot by Oklahoma had dropped, the Bears would have plummeted in the poll next week. Instead, Baylor will stay at No. 1 until it loses, which will happen soon. Poll voting is a mindless game of knee-jerk reactions and musical chairs.
Most handicappers and oddsmakers form power ratings that are more accurate and consistent than media rankings. The most difficult ratings to do are in the preseason because of the guesswork involved. I rated each relevant team and ranked my top 50 in early November. Here are my updated rankings:
1. Kansas
The fallout from the “Brawl in the Phog” against Kansas State on Tuesday will not cripple the Jayhawks. Chair-swinging forward Silvio De Sousa is suspended for 12 games, but he’s not a big loss. It’s tough to beat the duo of point guard Devon Dotson and 7-foot, 270-pound Udoka Azubuike. Bill Self is a legit coach, and I ranked his team No. 2 in the preseason. Kansas turned in a clumsy performance in a 68-66 season-opening loss to Duke yet has only one black eye (home loss to Baylor) on its résumé since. The Jayhawks rank No. 1 overall and in adjusted defensive efficiency, according to Ken Pomeroy’s ratings (Kenpom.com). Kansas is 15-3 straight up and 11-7 against the spread.
2. Gonzaga
Six players average double figures in scoring, led by forwards Filip Petrusev and Corey Kispert. Mark Few had to replace four starters from a 33-win team, but he reloaded right away. The Zags (20-1) had one bad day, an 82-64 loss to Michigan in the Bahamas in late November.
3. Duke
A lot of people love to hate the Blue Devils, but their 87-75 win at Michigan State on Dec. 3 displayed the potential of this Coach K team at full strength. Duke’s loss to Stephen F. Austin as a 27½-point favorite in late November also showed this team is young. In recent losses to Clemson and Louisville, the Devils were missing Wendell Moore. This still is an elite team with sophomore point guard Tre Jones and big man Vernon Carey leading the way. Duke is the only team ranked in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency (Kenpom).
4. Louisville
The Cardinals were underachieving in December and early January, but they are back on track after a convincing win at Duke. Junior forward Jordan Nwora is arguably the top player in the ACC.
5. Dayton
I rated the Flyers just outside of the top 50 in the preseason, and that was a major mistake, but I did catch it early. After watching Dayton play two games at the Maui Invitational before Thanksgiving, I bet the Flyers at 200/1 odds to win the national championship. The next day, Dayton lost to Kansas in overtime in the Maui title game. Led by forward Obi Toppin and guards Jalen Crutcher and Ibi Watson, the Flyers (17-2) rank No. 2 in adjusted offensive efficiency (Kenpom) behind Gonzaga.
6. West Virginia
The Mountaineers were picked to finish near the bottom of the 10-team Big 12, but that was underestimating Bob Huggins after a 15-21 season (4-14 in conference play). Freshman forward Oscar Tshiebwe is a stud, and Huggins has another phenomenal defensive team that pressures relentlessly.
7. Baylor
The Bears rank fourth in adjusted defensive efficiency (Kenpom) behind Kansas, Virginia and West Virginia, but their offensive shortcomings will be a problem down the road. Baylor’s next test at Florida on Saturday will be telling.
8. Oregon
Payton Pritchard is probably the best point guard in the college game, and coach Dana Altman typically has his teams peaking in March.
9. Seton Hall
The Pirates suffered early losses to Michigan State and Oregon, but have won nine in a row and will be at full strength soon when 6-foot-11 forward Sandro Mamukelashvili returns from a long absence due to a broken wrist. Senior guard Myles Powell is playing at a superstar level.
10. Michigan State
When the Spartans were voted No. 1 in the preseason poll — a ranking I agreed with at the time — it was not known that senior guard Joshua Langford would miss the entire season with a foot injury. Senior point guard Cassius Winston has not performed like the Big Ten’s top player, and he was awful in a recent 29-point defeat at Purdue. Tom Izzo still will be a tough out in March because his team defends, rebounds and has been challenged by a difficult schedule.
The next 10: Butler, Texas Tech, Ohio State, San Diego State, Villanova, Arizona, Florida State, Kentucky, Houston, Wichita State.