Sports

UFC 250: Aljamain Sterling vs. Cory Sandhagen, odds and predictions

LAS VEGAS — The UFC stomps into June with a stacked fight card featuring two-division titleholder Amanda Nunes and a fistful of other rated and talented fighters.

I’m passing on the main event between Nunes and Felicia Spencer for the women’s featherweight championship. The time to have bet Nunes was at the opening line of around -550. Now she is -650 or more in most of the market. Here’s a look at two of the bouts that pique my betting interest:

Aljamain Sterling (-115) vs. Cory Sandhagen (-105):

Sandhagen, 28, is unusually tall for a bantamweight at 5-foot-11. He displays deft movement and fluid striking. In his two most recent fights, Sandhagen realized a grotesque height and reach advantage over 5-5 Raphael Assuncao and 5-3 John Lineker. Each struggled to navigate his precision striking and overall size despite fighting him very competitively.

Sandhagen lands an average of 7.1 strikes per minute, which is a high volume and greatly contributes to his success, for he is an offensive fighter who realizes that volume will help overcome his relative lack of power. But his defense is less than stellar. Sandhagen allows 4.2 strikes per minute against. More importantly, his 26 percent takedown defense is sure to be tested by his wrestling-based opponent.

The 5-7 Sterling will be giving up 4 inches to Sandhagen, but any advantage that creates is eliminated by Sterling’s reach advantage. Sterling’s 13 UFC battles provide an advantage not only in experience but with a far superior level of competition, and this is his second attempt at a title opportunity.

Sterling is a wrestler with tremendous athleticism, movement and evolving striking. He averages 4.85 strikes landed a minute but allows a paltry 1.95. Sterling will try to rush Sandhagen for the clasp, then the fence press and eventually the floor.

In December 2017, Sterling realized his biggest career opportunity when he faced Marlon Moraes. He was finished in that fight, and since then he’s had to scrape, claw and badger back through a deeply talented bantamweight division to earn this opportunity.

Sterling’s experience, hunger, focus and wrestling base will provide a real test for the less-experienced Sandhagen. Also, I think Sterling’s size and thickness will be contributing factors, because Sandhagen has benefited by fighting men over whom he had dynamic physical advantages in his past two outings.

The pick: Sterling -115

Aljamain Sterling
Aljamain SterlingAP

Neil Magny (-140) vs. Anthony Rocco Martin (+120):

Each fighter enters this battle off a victory. Magny owns substantial height and arm/leg reach advantage over Martin. In ideal situations, Magny utilizes his length to deliver precision striking on opponents and though he is not overly powerful, he damages foes via strike volume and accumulation. Magny’s size combined with his deft striking are employed to back opponents up, once he has foes moving backwards, he is in position to control the fight.

Magny’s victories have come over fighters of nominal stature in the welterweight division while his losses have come in arguably his biggest spots, to fighters who employed bully tactics and constant forward pressure. Unrelenting forward pressure and calf kicks have enabled previous opponents to batter the gangly Magny, then earn inside position to deliver damaging blows. It’s mandatory that Magny move forward and not be bullied back.

Martin is a bully on a 5-1 run as a welterweight. He is a deft kickboxer who works off a precision jab and utilizes a destructive low kick, which will be important in this fight.

Martin will strive to use forward pressure in conjunction with strong grappling to crowd/stress the longer striker, back him up then damage him with effective kicks and counter strikes. Martin may not have the name recognition in this fight, but he has the game.

The pick: Martin +120