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With the regular season getting underway for Oklahoma City tonight, here are 10 bold predictions for 2019-20.
1. The Thunder keep Chris Paul.
Yes, the majority of the talk surrounding Paul since he landed in OKC has been about the team trying to ship him somewhere else. But the reason that the potential trade to Miami fell through is the same reason that Paul ends up spending the entire year in Oklahoma City – his contract makes him essentially untradeable. Even if Paul’s numbers improve from last year, getting someone to agree to take on the remainder of his $159 million contract, which don’t forget, includes a player option for $44 million in its final year (in which Paul will be 36) is going to be a tough sell.
2. Chris Paul makes his 10th All-Star Team
Yes, Paul’s numbers have been declining. Yes, at 34 Paul has struggled to stay on the court. BUT in Oklahoma City this year, Paul isn’t going to have to be second-chair to anyone like he was to James Harden in Houston. Kevin O’Conner broke down Paul’s numbers last season when Paul was playing alongside Harden and when he was on the floor solo. It’s a huge disparity.
While Paul will still facilitate and do Chris Paul things when it comes to setting up his teammates for buckets, he’s going a much more central part of the Thunder’s offense. Expect his numbers to reflect that.
3. Steven Adams averages a double-double
This one isn’t quite as bold as it is expected. Adams has been close to a double-double the past two seasons, averaging 13.9 points in 2017-18 and 2018-19, and 9.0 and 9.5 rebounds, respectively. Adams was impressive during the preseason, averaging 16 points and 7.3 rebounds in three games. With ball movement and an offense running through the high post, there’s no reason to believe his scoring would go anywhere but up. His rebounds should likely increase as well, now that he’s not competing with Russell Westbrook, who led the team in rebounds a year ago.
4. Steven Adams hits a three in the regular season
Hey, it happened once, it can happen again. The Big Kiwi opened the scoring in the preseason with a triple from the corner. Billy Donovan said after that game that he thought Adams had the opportunity to take a couple more. Not saying that Adams is suddenly going to turn into Steph Curry, but at least one during the regular season seems doable.
5. Thunder become a better three-point shooting team without Russell Westbrook
In 2018-19, Westbrook shot only 29% from beyond the arc, his worst season since he hit only 22.1% of his three-point attempts during 2009-10. As a team, the Thunder shot 34.8% from three. The players that Oklahoma City brought in the offseason – Chris Paul (37%), Danilo Gallinari (37.6%), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (36.7%) and Mike Muscala (36.5%) all shot above that on their own last year.
6. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has stellar sophomore season
There’s a reason that Oklahoma City picked up his third-year option. It might have been with a different team in a different system, but SGA’s rookie year was an impressive one. And despite the move to the Thunder, he’s showed no signs of regression so far this season. In four games during the preseason, Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 18.8 points, 4.8 rebounds, 1.3 assists and shot 50% from the field. Maybe more importantly, he showed that he was capable of running the offense on his own. Whether he’s off-ball or running point, SGA will be a force to be reckoned with this year.
7. The first player to be traded will be Danilo Gallinari
The only reason to go against Paul being the first man out in OKC is because of his massive (read problematic) contract. To be fair, Gallinari is still making $22.6 million, so it’s not nothing, but he’s in the final year of his current deal. Plus, he’s 31. Obviously, he and Paul aren’t the same player, but because of his age and the status of his current deal, the Thunder may be able to find another team willing to take him on.
8. Billy Donovan stays in Oklahoma City past 2019-20
Donovan’s seat has cooled considerably with the departure of Paul George and Russell Westbrook, primarily because the Thunder’s championship aspirations left with them. It’s still not a good look that the only time Donovan has won more than 50 games since taking over in Oklahoma City was his first year in 2015-16, which has been compounded by the fact that OKC has been knocked out of the playoffs in the first round each of the last three years. But with a young team facing a rebuild, table the “is Donovan on his way out?” discussion for at least another year.
9. Andre Roberson returns to his pre-injury form
In all honesty, a bold prediction would just be that Roberson returns to the court this season after having missed the last 20 months. He still hasn’t played in a game after being held out of the entire preseason. Donovan continues to call Roberson a “game-time decision”. He’s certainly the closest that he’s been since suffering the ruptured left patellar tendon in January 2018. Having Roberson back AND getting him back to elite defender status would be an absolute best-case scenario for Oklahoma City this year.
10. The Thunder make the playoffs
Crazier things have happened. There’s pretty much zero pressure on the team this year. Certainly no championship expectations. There’s a lot to be said about playing without the “will this be the Thunder’s year?” constantly hanging over their heads. If everything goes right – if Paul plays well, if he stays in OKC, if the team creates a solid defensive identity, then hey, why not?
