NJ No Longer On Track To Contain Coronavirus, Study Shows

NEW JERSEY — New Jersey is no longer on track to contain the coronavirus as infection numbers surge to record new highs across the country, according to a study from researchers and epidemiologists.

Just days ago, the state was one of only three in the nation that looked likely to get the virus under control as it went from being, along with New York, the world's COVID-19 epicenter to having among the lowest daily diagnoses in the nation, according to a group of epidemiologists tracking the outbreak.

But the group, Covid Act Now, has reassigned New Jersey and New York to a medium-risk level and described the disease's spread in the state as "slow and controlled" — which is still better than most of the nation.

"COVID in New Jersey is spreading in a slow and controlled fashion, and New Jersey’s COVID preparedness meets international standards," the group said.

"If this trend continues, New Jersey may eventually achieve herd immunity, though this may take years."

Now, only Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Vermont are on track to contain the disease. The group bases its findings on contact tracing, hospital capacity, testing and daily case and death numbers.

Across America, daily cases of the coronavirus are at the highest rate they've been, topping 50,000 new infections on Wednesday. Many states are scrambling to roll back reopenings.

New Jersey restarted a series of businesses and activities on Thursday, though a plan to include indoor dining was scrapped as the national resurgence of the virus continued. Read more: NJ's Reopening Day On Thursday: What You Can Do Now Amid COVID-19

New Jersey also reopened indoor pools on Thursday evening. Read more: Gov. Murphy Reopens Indoor Pools In NJ Amid Coronavirus Crisis

New Jersey has also mandated travelers coming from 16 states to quarantine. Read more: NJ Coronavirus, Reopen Updates: Here's What You Need To Know

The Murphy administration said New Jersey's percent positivity rate rose from 2.29 on Wednesday to 2.95 on Thursday and its rate of transmission on Thursday was 0.87, up from 0.82. That means, on average, each person in New Jersey with COVID-19 is infecting 0.87 other people.

The rate-of-transmission number conflicts with data provided by Covid Act Now, which said New Jersey was at 1.04 on Thursday, though it dropped to 0.99 on Friday. 1.0 is considered too high, and signals that the coronavirus is not being contained and remains community-spread.

Covid Act Now says these counties currently have a transmission rate exceeding 1.0: Cape May, Camden, Burlington, Bergen, Sussex, Warren and Hunterdon.

The state's positivity rate also conflicts with what was provided by Covid Act Now (see below).

This is what Covid Act Now wrote about New Jersey:

Contact tracing: "Per best available data, New Jersey has 2,500 contact tracers. With an average of 291 new daily cases, we estimate New Jersey needs 1,455 contact tracing staff to trace all new cases in 48 hours, before too many other people are infected. This means that New Jersey is likely able to trace 100 percent of new COVID infections in 48 hours. When this level of tracing is coupled with widely available testing, COVID can be contained without resorting to lockdowns."

Infection rate: "On average, each person in New Jersey with COVID is infecting 0.99 other people. Because this number is around 1.0, it means that COVID continues to spread, but in a slow and controlled fashion."

ICU headroom used: "New Jersey has about 927 ICU beds. Based on best available data, we estimate that 6 percent (57) are currently occupied by non-COVID patients. With 870 ICU beds remaining, we estimate 217 are needed by COVID cases, or 25 percent of available beds. This suggests there is likely enough capacity to absorb a wave of new COVID infections."

Positive test rate: "A low percentage (1.4 percent) of COVID tests were positive, which suggests enough widespread, aggressive testing in New Jersey to detect most new cases. Identifying and isolating new cases can help contain COVID without resorting to lockdowns."