Here’s How Likely New Jersey Will See A Doctor Shortage

America has a doctor problem. More accurately, it has a looming shortage that could be exacerbated by an aging population and an influx of doctor visits because more Americans have access to affordable health care. Some studies have suggested that by 2025, the United States will be short up to 90,000 physicians.

Sluggish birth rates combined with lengthier life-spans mean the number of people older than 65 is outpacing the rest of the country. According to a report by The Senior List, a site that offers advice to older adults, some states are much more likely than others to see a doctor shortage.

New Jersey, where 15.4 percent of the population is at least 65 years old, is not really among them, although many doctors are facing retirement age. The authors said New Jersey is the 25th most likely state to see a doctor shortage.

Here are the key findings for New Jersey:

• Doctors per 100,000 residents: 304.5 (21.5 above the recommended 283 baseline)
• Share of doctors nearing retirement age: 35 percent (third highest in nation)
• Residents and fellows in accredited programs: 32 per 100,000 residents

Americans make about 990 million doctor visits a year, according to statistics from the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. A shortage could have numerous adverse effects such as longer waits, shorter visits from an actual doctor and higher appointment costs, according to researchers at Eastern Kentucky University, who published a study on America’s physician shortage.

“The physician shortage in the United States that is projected to increase by as much as ninety-thousand by 2025 will impact the entire population in America, especially the elderly population with reductions in quality of care,” the study said.

But The Senior List report shows states in the Great Plains and South are much more likely to see a doctor shortfall in the coming years, with Wyoming and Montana atop the rankings. The Northeast, meanwhile, seems to be in much better shape, with Massachusetts and Rhode Island the least likely to see a physician shortage.

To determine the rankings, the authors totaled each state’s ranking for current doctor workforce, the share of doctors nearing retirement age and proportion of medical residents close to finishing their education.

“For example, while the District of Columbia has by far the highest proportion of physicians and medical students, the district’s percentage of doctors nearing retirement age is relatively high,” the report said. “So D.C. ranks first in the first two categories but 24th in doctors near retirement age (1 + 1 + 24 = 26).”

Here are the 10 states most likely to see a shortfall:

1. Wyoming
2. Montana
3. Mississippi
4. Oklahoma
5. Arkansas
6. Nevada
7. Florida
8. Idaho
9. New Mexico
10. Indiana

More than half of the states already fall below the recommended level of 283 doctors per 100,000 residents, which represents a balance between physicians and residents. Some places seemingly have a glut of doctors. Washington D.C., for example, has about 866 doctors per 100,000 people. Others, however, fall far short of what they need.

Nine states fall “dangerously below the current baseline,” the authors wrote, as they lack at least a third of the number of physicians needed to meet that level. Mississippi has just 186 doctors per 100,000 residents. Idaho has about 193 while Wyoming has roughly 199.

Patch national staffer Dan Hampton contributed to this report.