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There are an incalculable amount of ways this Michigan State football season could go. There are thousands upon thousands (maybe more) of variables that go into a single football game and tweaking just one creates a whole new set of variables. There are literal thousands of variables begetting thousands of different variables begetting thousands of different variables throughout the course of a game. When I say there are an incalculable amount of ways this season could go, I’m not being hyperbolic.
With that said, I’d like to narrow the scope on these potential scenarios and talk about the best and worst cases that are somewhat in the realm of possibility.
The obvious best case scenario is everything is perfect, Michigan State doesn’t lose a game and Mark Dantonio somehow cures cancer and fixes world hunger during week 6 en route to a national championship. Unlikely to happen.
An obvious worst case scenario involves incredible tragedy a la the Marshall football team plane crash in 1970. Also highly unlikely.
So while this post is the best and worst case scenarios, it’s actually more so the best and worst case realistic scenarios. I’ll keep potential injuries to somewhat of a minimum. It’ll focus mostly on what’s happening on the field. I’m not going to try and predict suspensions or arrests or anything like that.
Let’s start this thing off imagining everything that can go wrong, will go wrong for MSU.
Worst Case Scenario
Michigan State lines up on 1st-and-10 against Tulsa for the opening drive of the season and the first play of the new offense is a run up the middle for no gain. On 2nd-and-ten, a jet sweep to the short side of the field for a loss of one. On 3rd-and-11, an overthrown corner route to a receiver that wasn’t open anyway.
The offense hasn’t changed one bit. The only difference between this offense and the offense of previous seasons is the guy calling the plays and Brad Salem proves to be no better than the offensive coordinators that came before him.
Michigan State’s offense struggles mightily to get things rolling. The offense line is a constant game of musical chairs, dealing with injuries and ineffectiveness. Nobody seizes control of the backfield and MSU spends the season swapping in different running backs hoping something sticks. Eventually they try to hand it off to a backup linebacker again. He still fumbles.
The receivers are solid, but deal with injuries of their own and the tight ends just don’t take that next step. This leaves the offense with a lack of reliable pass catchers.
Brian Lewerke doesn’t return to form. Whether it’s confidence, injury, blocking, the scheme or all of the above, things just don’t work out. Michigan State gets off to a slow start with the offense dragging the team down. Soon the calls for Rocky Lombardi start. The calls turn to roars as Michigan State loses again to Northwestern. This starts a bumbling quarterback controversy in which Lewerke and Lombardi are splitting time and nobody really knows who is in command of the offense. It’s a mess and both guys struggle, compounding the issues on the line and in the backfield.
On defense an elite unit is instead only very good. Key injuries limit Kenny Willekes and Joe Bachie as well as a handful of other important players. What should have been a top five defense is instead the 32nd best defense in the country. They just don’t have enough to carry the offense over the finish line, resulting in a bevy of close losses.
What started in 2017 as incredibly promising, the Lewerke era comes to a thudding end as Michigan State goes 5-7 and misses a bowl game. They’re always competitive, but just can’t make plays to win games against good teams. There’s just too much senior leadership for them to bottom out like in 2016. It’s the most frustrating year fans can remember and MSU loses badly every time they wear the neon uniforms. A Detroit Free Press headline reads, “What’s uglier: The uniforms or the football?”
Recruiting doesn’t recover and Mark Dantonio signs his worst class in his time at Michigan State. People start wondering if the game has passed him by. They wonder if Michigan State can win when Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State are good. For now, the answer appears to be no. Murmurs of “Should Mark Dantonio be on the hot seat?” begin. The entire offensive staff is reshuffled again and Mark Staten gets his turn at offensive coordinator. Michigan wins the national championship and Jim Harbaugh signs a lifetime contract.
Final result: 5-7 overall, 3-6 in conference play with a loss to Maryland on Senior Day.
Best Case Scenario
The defense is what it was last year and then some. Kenny Willekes develops as a pass-rusher and notches 10+ sacks to go with 20+ TFLs. He leaves MSU as a top-15 pick in the NFL draft. Joe Bachie is an All-American. Mike Panasiuk and Raequan Williams are stars. David Dowell proves to be one of the best safeties in the country and Josiah Scott is an All-American contender.
The 22 starters concept bears fruit and Michigan State is just loaded with talent and depth all over the defense. They end up as the number one defense in the country and the greatest defense Mark Dantonio has ever had at Michigan State.
Changes on offense perfectly suit Brian Lewerke’s game. The confidence is back. The shoulder is healed. He becomes a better version of his sophomore year self and puts up nearly 4,000 total yards of offense to go with 34 total TDs. He contends for first-team All-Big Ten and is a day two draft pick.
The offensive line gels as a unit with some good health. They go from a question mark to a solid strength. They never become great, but with all of the talent around them they just need to be good. By the end of the season they are able to play with almost any defensive front that lines up across from them.
Anthony Williams Jr. is a breakout star in the backfield and La’Darius Jefferson and Connor Heyward both take steps forward in the run game. Michigan State has a dynamic group of backs that can run inside and outside as well as catch the ball. That combined with the legs of Brian Lewerke results in a very effective run game that can go for explosive plays as well as grind out games.
The receivers end up being the best group in the conference. Darrell Stewart cashes in on being the guy and catches 75 passes for 1,000 yards and 8 TDs. Cody White breaks out with a fully healthy season and looks like a future NFL receiver. Speedy Nailor becomes a game-breaker, getting the ball in space and regularly turning in explosive plays. Combined with talented tight ends reaching their potential, Michigan State’s passing game is dynamic and effective; able to attack a defense in a number of ways. The offense turns in to a top 40 unit in the country and the 4th best offense in the Big Ten.
Michigan State cruises out of the gate and picks up big road wins in conference play, only stumbling one time at Wisconsin. They beat Ohio State, Penn State and Michigan en route to an 11-1 regular season with an East Division title. They crush Nebraska in the Big Ten Championship game and earn the program’s second College Football Playoff appearance in five years. They play Clemson in the semifinals and keep it close throughout, ultimately losing by a couple of scores. The talent to match up with Clemson, Alabama or Georgia just isn’t there.
Recruiting picks back up and MSU cashes in late, signing a top 25 class for 2020. The 2021 class gets off to a huge start off the momentum of the CFP appearance.
The statue of Mark Dantonio is started outside of Spartan Stadium. The offensive assistants get their two-year contracts back and get raises. Michigan State as a Big Ten powerhouse is here to stay. Michigan goes 7-6 and Jim Harbaugh leaves to take the New York Giants head coaching job.
Final result: 12-2 with another Big Ten title and a solid showing in the College Football Playoff.
