Bowl Breakdown: Where Iowa could land next postseason and what games are off the table

ORLANDO, FL - JANUARY 01: Notre Dame Fighting Irish team celebrates their win raising the trophy after the Citrus Bowl between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and LSU Tigers on January 1, 2018, at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, FL. (Photo by Andrew Bershaw/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
By Scott Dochterman
Jun 16, 2019

IOWA CITY, Iowa — As another six-year Big Ten bowl cycle reaches its conclusion, Iowa football’s postseason possibilities are narrower now than they will be after the 2020 season.

Based on the Big Ten’s bowl contracts, the Hawkeyes are prevented from playing in the Outback, Gator and Music City Bowls this year and likely the Pinstripe Bowl as well. Iowa maxed out its appearances in Tampa but is eligible to return after the 2020 season. The Gator and Music City bowls each had three Big Ten choices over a six-year period. The Music City Bowl has exhausted its selections, while the Gator Bowl already opted for Iowa once. The Hawkeyes played in the Pinstripe Bowl two years ago, and the New York bowl’s contract calls for a minimum of seven different Big Ten teams over an eight-year period.

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Outside of the New Year’s Six bowls, the Big Ten instituted rules that each bowl is required to take at least five different league squads over a six-year period. Only two bowls (Outback with Iowa, Quick Lane with Minnesota) have maxed out a team selection.

As the final year in a bowl cycle, 2019 holds plenty of scenarios that could render the traditional selection process moot. The Holiday Bowl was not renewed as a Big Ten bowl, so it could opt for a specific squad rather than the most deserving team. The Gator Bowl, which also exits the league’s postseason cycle, could request a trade with the Music City Bowl if an ACC team like Florida State or Miami is available rather than fulfill its final year as a Big Ten bowl. Perhaps if Minnesota appears to be the only team available to the Quick Lane Bowl, the league might request a higher-level bowl to take the Gophers.

The College Football Playoff Selection Committee chooses the four playoff teams along with the Cotton Bowl. Its rankings also determine which teams compete in the Rose, Sugar and Orange bowls. The remaining bowls select Big Ten teams based on conversations with the league office.

Here is an early rundown of which bowls are available to Iowa for the upcoming year, along with those that are unavailable:

Available

Fiesta/Peach — The College Football Playoff semifinals take place in the Fiesta and Peach bowls this year. For Iowa to qualify for either one, it probably needs an unbeaten regular season with a Big Ten championship game victory.

Rose — This year, the Big Ten champion is scheduled to appear in Pasadena, unless it qualifies for the College Football Playoff. If that’s the case, the Rose Bowl will accept the highest-ranked available Big Ten team. In 2015, the Rose Bowl selected No. 5-ranked Iowa over No. 6 Ohio State when Michigan State qualified for the CFP.

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Orange — Over a 12-year period, the Orange Bowl hosts four College Football Playoff semifinal games. In the other eight years, it matches the ACC champion (or the highest-ranked ACC team outside of the College Football Playoff) against the highest-ranked at-large team involving the Big Ten (three years), SEC (three) or Notre Dame (twice). The Big Ten has one Orange Bowl slot remaining through 2025, while the SEC and Notre Dame each have two.

Cotton — The highest-ranked Group of 5 team (unless it qualifies for the College Football Playoff) will face an at-large team from any available conference in Arlington, Texas. The Big Ten’s arrangements with the Rose and Orange bowls take priority over the Cotton Bowl.

Citrus — The Big Ten forfeits its Citrus Bowl slot to the ACC this year only if a member team competes in the Orange Bowl. Every Big Ten team is available to the Citrus, which selects first after New Year’s Six bowls. Iowa has not played in Orlando in 15 years.

Holiday — The Hawkeyes have a rich history with the Holiday Bowl, with trips in 1986, 1987 and 1991. Iowa won two games by a combined three points and tied in the other. This is the final year the Holiday Bowl is part of the Big Ten’s bowl agreements. If Iowa is available to the Holiday Bowl, which picks after the Citrus and Outback, it’s almost certainly headed to San Diego.

Redbox — The Santa Clara, Calif., bowl selects sixth among Big Ten teams after the New Year’s Six. None of the Big Ten’s previous allocations competing in this bowl has won more than seven regular-season games.

Quick Lane — Only one of the previous Big Ten representatives during this bowl cycle has won more than six regular-season games and played in Detroit, and that was seven-win Rutgers in 2014. Minnesota has appeared twice in the Quick Lane Bowl, which prevents the Gophers from returning this year. Under the league contract, it also would keep Rutgers and Maryland from reappearing in Detroit.

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Armed Forces — The Big Ten’s six-year agreement with the Dallas-area Armed Forces and First Responder bowls expires after this year. Only once has the Big Ten placed a team at either location, and that was 6-6 Illinois in 2014.

Unavailable

Sugar — In years when the Sugar Bowl doesn’t host a College Football Playoff semifinal, it pits the highest-ranked non-playoff teams from the SEC and Big 12 conferences. That’s the case this year.

Outback — Iowa competed in Tampa after the 2016 and 2018 seasons, which not only keeps the Hawkeyes from the Outback this year but also prevents the bowl from adding another team for the second time during this cycle. Other Big Ten teams unable to play in the Outback this year — according to the contract — include Wisconsin, Northwestern and Michigan.

Gator — The Gator and Music City bowls have a sharing agreement over this six-year bowl cycle where each one would choose three different Big Ten bowl teams and none would have a return trip. It’s the Gator’s turn to pick a Big Ten team, but neither Iowa nor Penn State is available.

Music City — The Nashville-based bowl has exhausted its three Big Ten choices during this contract, but it returns to the league’s bowl lineup for six consecutive years beginning in 2020.

Pinstripe — Its contract with the Big Ten calls for a minimum of seven different teams over eight years. Iowa competed at Yankee Stadium in 2017 to fulfill its New York obligation. Based on the Hawkeyes’ bowl attendance two years ago, it’s unlikely the Pinstripe would request Iowa as its only two-time choice through the current contract.

(Top photo: Andrew Bershaw / Getty Images)

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Scott Dochterman

Scott Dochterman is a staff writer for The Athletic covering the Iowa Hawkeyes. He previously covered Iowa athletics for the Cedar Rapids Gazette and Land of 10. Scott also worked as an adjunct professor teaching sports journalism at the University of Iowa.