State of the Program: Revamped and recharged, expectations remain high for Boise State

Oct 28, 2017; Logan, UT, USA; Boise State Broncos head coach Bryan Harsin during the second half against the Utah State Aggies at Merlin Olsen Field at Maverik Stadium. Boise State Broncos won the game 41-14. Mandatory Credit: Chris Nicoll-USA TODAY Sports
By Chantel Jennings
Jun 23, 2019

Editor’s note: Part of a continuing series examining the Power 5 and top Group of 5 teams for the 2019 college football season.

It took a while for Bryan Harsin to get over the feeling of how the 2018 season ended for the Boise State Broncos. First, a loss in the Mountain West Championship Game. Second, in a chance to end the season on a high note and get past the title game defeat, a canceled bowl game — something that hadn’t happened in more than 75 years.

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Boise State had been prepared for the potential of a lightning delay in the First Responder Bowl. The Broncos had practiced what it would feel like if they needed to keep their bodies fresh for 30 minutes in the middle of a game. They played noises indoors to echo the sounds of lightning in a stadium. They were ready for just about anything. Well, anything but a potential cancellation. The odds of that happening are next to zero.

Yet somehow Boise State (as well as Boston College) landed on it, and both left Texas with fewer than 10 minutes of football played.

“Just walking in there and looking at the seniors when you tell them that the game’s over, and they’re done and looking back at you like, ‘No freaking way,’” Harsin said. “The young guys are disappointed, but they’re gonna — they know they got more ball. These (senior) guys are done. And a lot of those guys aren’t going on and playing to have a chance to the next level. So they’re done. That’s it, literally their last game …

“I want to go back and play the game again. That’s never gonna happen. It’s just the reality of it.”

Later that week, Harsin saw BC coach Steve Addazio in Bristol, Conn., as the two flew in to work in the ESPN Coaches Film Room for one of the two College Football Playoff games. Harsin said there wasn’t too much off-screen chat about how they’ve joined the weirdest two-person club in college football or how they might move on from something like this because the answer is just that: You move on.

“It’s one of those things, like, it is what it is,” Harsin said. “We both struggle with it. But it wasn’t one of those things like, ‘Gosh, what do you do about it?’ Because we were there and you just go with the flow.”

And so Harsin felt himself getting antsy — even more than usual — as Boise State returned to spring practice this year. There would be so many questions to answer in those 15 spring practices for the Broncos — a new defensive coordinator to get on the ground after Andy Avalos departed for Oregon, so many veterans to replace. But more than anything, it was a chance to do what they weren’t able to do back in December … play football.

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“I think a little bit for everybody kind of just taking a deep breath and letting it all go, just like we’re back to ball,” Harsin said. “But now we’re into a whole new season, but for that time, leading up to spring, it was a little bit hard to let it go.”

The silver lining, if there is one — at least for the players who returned — is that the adage “nothing is guaranteed” has never felt more real.

Boise State now knows no game is guaranteed and that it needs to look no further than last season to remember the feeling of unfinished business. And with all of those questions the Broncos must continue to answer heading into the 2019 season, that sense of urgency could serve them very well.

Biggest on-field question

You want to feel old?

The last time Boise State didn’t have a 1,000-yard rusher, Washington offensive coordinator Bush Hamdan was the Broncos’ backup quarterback.

The Broncos have the nation’s longest active streak of seasons with a 1,000-yard back, a streak that began in 2009. Boise State’s ability to reload at the position makes the prospect of replacing all-conference running back Alexander Mattison seem much less daunting.

Alexander Mattison led the Mountain West with 1,415 rushing yards last season and was named First Team All-Conference. (Douglas Stringer /  Getty Images)

But this year, it’s a bit different. In addition to finding Mattison’s replacement, Boise State must also fill the shoes of four-year starting quarterback Brett Rypien (3,705 yards, 30 touchdowns, 7 interceptions) as well as those of its two leading receivers from a season ago — Sean Modster (68 receptions, 978 yards, 8 touchdowns) and A.J. Richardson (54 receptions, 825 yards, 8 touchdowns).

Never in the past decade did Boise State have to replace that much. (Though in 2012, the Broncos came close, needing to replace four-year starting quarterback Kellen Moore, two-time 1,000-yard rusher Doug Martin and top wide receiver Tyler Shoemaker, but they returned the team’s second-leading receiver in Matt Miller.)

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Modster and Richardson combined to reel in 45 percent of the wide receiver catches over the past two seasons. Mattison totaled 70 percent of the running back carries over that time span. And Rypien accounted for 87 percent of the pass attempts over the past four years.

“You’ve got a four-year (QB) starter — who’s going to be the next player? You lost an NFL running back — who’s gonna be the next player? We lost two receivers that were NFL guys. They weren’t drafted, but they were both free-agent-type guys,” Harsin said. “We have to figure those things out, and we will. … It’s time to figure out who the next guy is.”

But it’s not a singular question. Boise State needs to figure out who several of those guys are and what they can be within this offense. The unit is going to have a lot of new, less experienced faces this year at a lot of key positions, and for a team that is so accustomed to replacing productive back after productive back over the past decade, it now adds to that challenge to find itself a new quarterback and primary receivers.

Depth chart analysis

Quarterback: Anyone hoping for questions answered ASAP at the QB position needs to be patient, because this is truly a position group that doesn’t find much clarity in terms of a pecking order until after the first scrimmage the Broncos host this fall (which should take place somewhere after the first eight practices). Redshirt sophomore Chase Cord tore his ACL last October and wasn’t able to compete through spring ball. Reps were split pretty evenly this spring as Boise State worked in some younger players, including two 2019 quarterback signees — Hank Bachmeier and Kaiden Bennett — who enrolled early and had the opportunity to pick up those important reps through spring practice. Also in the mix are redshirt senior Jaylon Henderson, a junior college transfer who appeared in three games for the Broncos last season, and redshirt freshmen Zach Matlock and Riley Smith.

Running back: Redshirt junior Robert Mahone and sophomore Andrew Van Buren are fighting for that top spot, with the edge falling to the more veteran Mahone right now. But don’t expect this position to be a one-man role despite the featured-back prominence at Boise State. For the past three multiseason 1,000-yard backs, in their first 1,000-yard season, there have been other ball carriers who have recorded at least 90 carries at the position. In Mattison’s first 1,000-yard season in 2016, Ryan Wolpin got 122 carries. In Jeremy McNichols’ first 1,000-yard season in 2015, Kelsey Young carried the ball 91 times. And in Jay Ajayi’s first 1,000-yard season in 2013, Aaron Baltazar and Jack Field combined for 107 carries. So, it’s important to keep a wider view on this position. Other names to track heading into the fall: redshirt freshman Danny Smith and freshmen George Holani and Keegan Duncan.

Wide receiver: Junior CT Thomas is the Broncos’ leading returner in catches (41) and receiving yards (535), but expect him to rotate heavily with junior Octavius Evans and senior John Hightower. All are high-target players who could prove to be real weapons in the Mountain West. Redshirt senior Akilian Butler, who started three games a season ago, could be a name who becomes more well-known during his final season on campus, while redshirt freshman Billy Bowens, who played in three games a season ago, could be a name to watch for the future. Additionally, in terms of running backs picking up some of the receiving yardage, the Boise State staff feels pretty confident in the hands of all of its running backs. Over the past six seasons, the Broncos’ leading running back has averaged 32 catches per season.

Tight end: Redshirt junior John Bates led all Boise State tight ends with 155 receiving yards (10 catches) a season ago, but he’ll compete alongside redshirt seniors Garrett Collingham and Matt Pistone. Mt. San Antonio junior college transfer Austin Griffin, who’s not on campus yet, will also be a factor.

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Offensive line: While much of the offense will feature new and/or inexperienced players this upcoming season, the Boise State O-line will serve as an experienced anchor for the unit. Every spot, with the exception of right tackle, will feature a player with at least 20 career starts: redshirt junior left tackle Ezra Cleveland (27 starts), redshirt senior left guard John Molchon (29 career starts), redshirt senior center Garrett Larson (20 starts) and redshirt senior right guard Eric Quevedo (21 starts). Redshirt sophomore John Ojukwu, who made seven starts a season ago, will start at right tackle. Look for redshirt freshman Garrett Curran and redshirt junior Nick Crabtree to provide depth at the tackle positions while redshirt sophomore Jake Stetz and redshirt freshman Kekaniokoa Holomalia-Gonzalez will rep at the guard and center positions, respectively.

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Defensive line: Boise State finished 2018 as the nation’s No. 20 rushing defense (123 yards per game), and it has a real shot at taking a step forward in 2019. Redshirt senior defensive tackle David Moa (24 career starts), who was out most of 2018 with a calf injury, and senior nose tackle Sonatane Lui (22 career starts) both return to anchor the defensive line. Senior Chase Hatada has the versatility to play both defensive end and tackle, though the same could also be said of Moa. Providing depth on the line will be sophomore Scale Igiehon, senior Emmanuel Fesili and senior Matt Locher.

Linebackers/STUD: Junior Riley Whimpey is rehabbing a torn ACL, and when he returns, he really could go back to his old spot on the weak side or move to the middle. In his absence, redshirt sophomore Ezekiel Noa has been repping at the weakside position and junior Benton Wickersham has been in the middle. At stud, redshirt junior Curtis Weaver has the talent to vie for the conference’s defensive player of the year honors. With 20.5 sacks in just two seasons, he’s already tied for sixth in the Boise State record books for career sacks. With another big year, Weaver could finish 2019 as high as No. 2 in program annals (the current No. 2 is Chris Wing, who finished his career with 32.0).

Defensive backfield: Boise State finished with just seven interceptions in 2018 (107th nationally), while its pass defense, giving up 233 yards per game, was middle of the pack among FBS schools. At the corner positions, redshirt juniors Avery Williams and Jalen Walker should start and will likely be backed up by redshirt freshmen Tyric LeBeauf and Chris Mitchell as well as redshirt sophomore Marques Evans. Safety should be one of the deeper and more experienced defensive units for the Broncos. Senior strong safety Kekoa Nawahine has 27 career starts, while redshirt junior free safety DeAndre Pierce, who is coming back from a season-ending injury in 2018, has 16 career starts. Redshirt junior Jordan Happle and redshirt senior Evan Tyler will provide depth at these spots. At nickel, junior Kekaula Kaniho, who led the Broncos with three interceptions in his first season of starting, returns. He’ll be backed up by redshirt sophomore Tyreque Jones.

Special teams: Boise State loses kicker Haden Hoggarth, who was 12-of-20 on field goals last season (including just 2-of-7 from 40-plus yards) as well as punter Quinn Skillin, who averaged 39 yards per punt. Redshirt junior Joel Velazquez, who served primarily as a kickoff specialist in 2018, will take over punting duties, while Division III Trinity (Conn.) graduate transfer Eric Sachse, who will arrive on campus this summer, should handle place-kicking. Less will change on the returns, where defensive back Avery Williams (who was a top-50 punt returner a season ago) and wide receivers John Hightower, Akilian Butler and Khalil Shakir (who handled 21 of the Broncos’ 28 kick returns) are back.

How the Broncos have recruited from 2016 to 2019

Using 247Sports’ Composite rankings, here is how Boise State’s recruiting classes have fared nationally and within the Mountain West over the past four years:

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After ranking fourth among Group of 5 programs in 2017, Boise State has signed the highest-rated recruiting class among non-Power 5 schools in each of the past two seasons.

In its 2019 class, Boise State signed three four-star recruits, giving the Broncos their most four-star signees for any given class over the past decade as well as three of the top eight signees in program history.

  • Four-star quarterback Hank Bachmeier, who ranked as the No. 6 pro-style QB in the 2019 class, held offers from the Pac-12, SEC and Big Ten, but he ultimately chose Boise State.
  • Linebacker Casey Kline held four Pac-12 offers, but the California native ended up choosing the Broncos.
  • Austin Griffin was the nation’s No. 1 junior college tight end, per the 247Sports Composite, and at 6-foot-7, 250 pounds, he could prove to be one of the tougher matchups in the Mountain West.

And, yes, recruiting rankings are subjective, but they sometimes provide a glimpse — especially at the Group of 5 level — at how recruits perceive programs. And in this regard, it’s important to note that UCF, Memphis and San Diego State (schools that have at times vied for that top Group of 5 spot) signed zero four-star recruits in 2019.

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The Broncos are continuing to build their high-level recruiting profile despite other Group of 5 programs gaining ground in name recognition — seven of the programs’ 10 highest-rated recruits have come to Boise in the past three classes.

Boise State established its brand under Chris Petersen, and it has remained in the national spotlight even when it hasn’t necessarily been the best-performing Group of 5 program. And recruiting rankings — specifically the number of highly rated recruits — can show that.

Impact of coaching changes

The Broncos have three new coaches on the defensive side of the ball (as well as a fourth who’s coaching a new position), and with Andy Avalos headed to Oregon, Boise State is moving to more of a base 3-4 defense, with a lot of creative looks coming from new defensive coordinator Jeff Schmedding.

Schmedding, who spent his past 15 seasons at Eastern Washington, including the previous four as defensive coordinator, came to Boise as the linebackers and co-special-teams coach after the season. But after Avalos departed for Eugene, Harsin promoted Schmedding to defensive coordinator. He brings with him a creative and aggressive defensive mind, and his Eagles squad finished second in the Big Sky in sacks (36) and first in interceptions (22) in 2018. Schmedding will also work with outside linebackers.

The Boise State defensive staff will be one of the least-tenured groups in the Mountain West. The longest-tenured defensive coach on Boise State’s staff is safeties/nickels coach Gabe Franklin, who is in his fourth year. Spencer Danielson, the youngest coach on staff, who has worked with STUDs the past two seasons, will now oversee the entire defensive line. Schmedding’s two fellow first-year coaches are inside linebacker coach Zac Alley, who coached nickels at Charlotte last season after spending four seasons at his alma mater of Clemson, and Jalil Brown, who enters his second year of college coaching after working as a defensive analyst at Northern Arizona last season.

Schedule analysis

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The Broncos open with a “neutral-site game” in Jacksonville, Fla. against Florida State. The Seminoles have opened as a slight favorite against Boise State, but with two and a half months to go, that line might change. Whether or not FSU’s hodgepodge offensive line can match up against the talent and depth of Boise State’s defensive front remains to be seen.

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The Broncos will follow up that trip with a three-game home stretch, though the first game out of the gates on the new turf will be played on a short week after that flight back from Florida. There tends to be anxiety about preparedness and injury when there’s a quick turnaround paired with cross-country travel.

Boise State will be idle during the final weekends of September and October, but the Broncos face a brutal travel schedule the final month and a half of the season. Four of the final six games will be on the road, including a short turnaround (Saturday to Friday) during the final two weekends of the season when Boise travels to Utah State and then Colorado State.

Though scheduling might not be the most favorable for the Broncos, the matchups work a bit in their favor. They miss Fresno State and San Diego State altogether in the regular season and don’t face Utah State — what might be the toughest MWC challenger on their slate — until the penultimate weekend of the regular season.

Final assessment

In eight seasons since joining the Mountain West, Boise State has finished with double-digit wins in six of those years and never finished worse than second in the conference.

This season, with so many long-standing offensive playmakers to replace and a new defensive coordinator (with a younger defensive staff), it feels like it’ll be a season that answers a lot of questions about the continued durability of this program and its brand. Is the foundation strong enough to withstand this kind of turnover? Have the young players stepping into bigger roles been groomed in the same spirit as those who came before them? Is Boise State still “college football’s Boise State” or has that crown headed further southeast to UCF? Can this group — with so many unanswered questions — still secure at least 10 wins and a high finish in the conference?

A New Year’s Six game is a possibility for this team if it can band together and find enough playmakers and chemistry to withstand a lot of travel during the second half of the season. But it also might need a bit of help from other Group of 5 teams that have fewer questions to answer in terms of personnel.

(Top photo of Bryan Harsin: Chris Nicoll / USA Today)

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Chantel Jennings

Chantel Jennings is The Athletic's senior writer for the WNBA and women's college basketball. She covered college sports for the past decade at ESPN.com and The Athletic and spent the 2019-20 academic year in residence at the University of Michigan's Knight-Wallace Fellowship for Journalists. Follow Chantel on Twitter @chanteljennings