LINCOLN, Neb. — One season ended Monday in college football. And another began at Nebraska.
The Huskers welcomed 13 newcomers as the spring semester opened Monday. The group includes nine scholarship signees who form the backbone of a 2020 class that may still add firepower next month.
Hope at Nebraska remains strong that the group of recruits, which sits at 23 players and ranks 20th nationally, will help Scott Frost turn a corner that has proven more troublesome to navigate than the coach envisioned two years ago.
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Since the 2019 season slid off the rails in October, I’ve sought a way to quantify the work of Nebraska coaches at retaining and developing talent. Beyond the scoreboard, what are the Huskers doing to gain on Big Ten competitors?
Below is a measure of the past four recruiting classes at Nebraska — but not in traditional terms. Throw out the star values; this system tracks only their progress on the ground in Lincoln. It offers a snapshot on the direction of the program as more of the players recruited by Frost move into important roles. And it provides an indication of what went awry for Nebraska on both sides of the most recent coaching transition.
Specifically, the final class under former coach Mike Riley and the first under Frost featured too many misses. Misses from those two years, in fact, outnumber the hits almost 3-to-1. Therein lies the recipe for a string of losing seasons.
The struggle to retain and develop talent also sheds light on the strategy behind a youth movement well underway. Nebraska counts 77 freshmen (true and redshirt) in place for 2020 among 165 players listed Monday on Huskers.com. Last year, its 78 freshmen ranked as the highest figure nationally, according to data collected by UCLA.
It’s reflective of the push under Frost to continue to expand the walk-on program — but also of the need to transform his roster.
He’s confident that it’s working.
“I don’t have any different opinion of where this program is headed than I did when I took the job,” Frost said last month. “We knew it was going to be a lot of work.”
Eight players from his first recruiting class, signed in short order after Frost was hired in December 2017, have already transferred or been dismissed.
“These last two classes we put together,” the coach said, “it’s starting to look like it needs to look from a talent perspective.”
This data is subject to change. Check back in January 2021 and perhaps it’ll tell a new story.
I rated every scholarship recruit who enrolled from 2016 through 2019.
Points were awarded as follows: Three points for a player who earned and kept a starting position. Two points for a key contributor or player on track to earn a starting job. One point for a minor contributor. Zero points for a player who left the program without making a key contribution.
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The rankings are subjective. The system does not account for walk-ons. It does not include four-year transfers. It does not include players who signed with Nebraska but failed to enroll.
In other words, it’s not a scientific, definitive statement about the entire roster. But I think it says something about the impact of a coaching change on the ability of a school to consistently keep and cultivate talent.
Class of 2016
21 players, 10 regular starters, eight who’ve left early
Three points (10): DiCaprio Bootle, Marquel Dismuke, JoJo Domann, Matt Farniok, Lamar Jackson, Collin Miller, JD Spielman, Ben Stille, Jack Stoll, Boe Wilson
Two (2): Tre Bryant, Caleb Lightbourn
One (3): Tony Butler, Pernell Jefferson, John Raridon
Zero (6): Quayshon Alexander, Bryan Brokop, David Engelhaupt, Derrion Grim, Patrick O’Brien, Greg Simmons
Takeaways: Jackson is on his way to the NFL as a headliner of Riley’s best recruiting class, but the rangy cornerback is far from the only success story. Assistant coach Travis Fisher did especially good work with four defensive backs, including Domann, now starting as a linebacker.
Bryant, who had to give up football because of knee injuries, and Lightbourn, who transferred after starting for a year and a half, get credit for their success.
Spielman has a shot to leave Nebraska with most of the school’s receiving records. Most of the other starters from the class fit among the Huskers’ expected leaders in 2020. While still short on star power, the group held up well, considering the circumstances, and provides the foundation for a strong senior class in Frost’s third season.
It is not to blame for the losing those players have endured.
Class of 2017
18 players, one regular starter, eight who’ve left early
Three (1): Brenden Jaimes
Two (5): Austin Allen, Broc Bando, Damion Daniels, Kurt Rafdal, Deontre Thomas
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One (4): Jaylin Bradley, Jaevon McQuitty, Matt Sichterman, Chris Walker
Zero (8): Tristan Gebbia, Willie Hampton, Keyshawn Johnson Jr., Tyjon Lindsey, Ben Miles, Avery Roberts, Guy Thomas, Andrew Ward
Takeaways: Isn’t it obvious? That is what happens to a program in turmoil. Long before Nebraska lost to Northern Illinois and Riley’s final season slipped into a spiral, his boss forced a change at defensive coordinator upon the coach in the midst of recruiting this class.
I’m not saying the hire of Bob Diaco led to the eventual chaos among 2017 signees. But the likelihood that Nebraska would ride the group to a championship diminished on the day Riley lost the power to make important decisions. And it’s no surprise to realize that it all coincided nicely three years ago — just before the Huskers fell apart on the field.
Jaimes is a gem, and any of the two-point recipients may advance this year to three-point stature. Regardless, there’s too much disappointment with the class. Its misses continue to cost the Huskers.
Class of 2018
22 players, five regular starters, eight who’ve left early
Three (5): Will Honas, Cameron Jurgens, Adrian Martinez, Cam Taylor, Deontai Williams
Two (7): Braxton Clark, Will Farniok, Casey Rogers, Barret Pickering, Caleb Tannor, Maurice Washington, Mike Williams
One (3): David Alston, Tate Wildeman, Jaron Woodyard
Zero (7): Greg Bell, Andre Hunt, Cam’ron Jones, Miles Jones, Katerian Legrone, Justin McGriff, C.J. Smith
Takeaways: Full of big hits and big misses. It’s the bookend piece of evidence that a coaching change often damages not just one — but two — cycles of recruiting. The impact is tough to shake.
Frost and his staff took a few risks in the class. They didn’t have much alternative.
Jurgens and Taylor possess ceilings as high as any players on the Huskers. Williams broke out in 2018 before the season-ending shoulder injury last year in the season opener. Pickering, even if healthy, faces a fight to regain his job. Washington, though departed with the seven others, flashed moments of brilliance.
The legacy of the class is largely unwritten. In a best-case scenario, half of the 22 grow into starters, with a handful of stars. If so, the 2018 class will earn its spot on the right side of Nebraska history.
Class of 2019
27 players, two regular starters, none who’ve left program
Three (2): Dedrick Mills, Wan’Dale Robinson
Two (5): Bryce Benhart, Rahmir Johnson, Luke McCaffrey, Garrett Nelson, Quinton Newsome
One (20): Matthew Anderson, Brant Banks, Darien Chase, Myles Farmer, Jimmy Fritzsche, Jamin Graham, Jahkeem Green, Jackson Hannah, Nick Henrich, Chris Hickman, Demariyon Houston, Michael Lynn, Jamie Nance, Mosai Newsom, Ethan Piper, Noa Pola-Gates, Ty Robinson, Garrett Snodgrass, Ronald Thompkins, Javin Wright
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Takeaways: It’s too early for any broad conclusions. But the ceiling appears high for this first class signed by Frost’s staff in normal recruiting conditions.
Aside from Mills and Robinson, two points went to the 2019 newcomers who bypassed a redshirt or showed enough to earn meaningful playing time. For several other redshirts, lofty expectations remain. Look for many to make a jump as soon as this spring.
The next generation of top Nebraska offensive linemen, defensive backs and linebackers likely resides here.
In Frost’s plan, when the 2019 signees close their careers, there won’t be a discussion to have about the Huskers’ need to close the gap in recruiting, retaining and developing talent.
(Photo of Lamar Jackson: Bruce Thorson / USA Today)