The NHL’s trade deadline is one month away and so many teams are still unsure if they will be buyers, sellers or neither.
Welcome to Parity 2020.
I mean, check out the Pacific Division, people.
So much will get decided over the next few weeks for a long list of teams that just can’t commit yet to being in or out. Injuries will factor in hugely as always, suddenly creating needs where none existed before.
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But I do like to take stock around the All-Star break of where teams stand ahead of the trade deadline, even if a lot of the information gleaned in my conversations this week will change based on results or unforeseen events leading up to the Feb. 24 deadline.
After speaking to sources around the NHL this week, we take a look at all 31 teams one month before the trade deadline:
Metropolitan Division
The 2018 champs honestly need next to nothing. They’re deep, skilled and physical. They can beat you in a number of different ways. They’ve got a nice 1-2 battle in goal that resembles the one they had two years ago when the won the Stanley Cup. That year, the Caps didn’t make big headlines at the trade deadline but they did add blueliner Michal Kempny, who at the time was described as a depth addition, but ended up being key to their Cup run.
All things being equal, I think that’s what you’ll see again from Caps GM Brian MacLellan this time around, maybe a depth piece up front, maybe a depth piece on the back end, although the team likes their blue line depth in the organization through the AHL level. One player that, for me, would be a nice fit up front is veteran centre Trevor Lewis from the Kings, a pending UFA and a Cup winner himself. I think the Caps have mentioned him among other names in internal discussions. Either way, as long as the Caps stay healthy ahead of Feb. 24, I think MacLellan likely stays on the depth addition route which worked out just fine two years ago.
The loss of Jake Guentzel was a major blow for a team that continues to remain an elite team despite long injury absences from Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, among others, this season. Crosby and Malkin are both in the lineup at the same time these days and the Penguins look like a legit threat once again. They’ve also got a Hockey Hall of Fame GM in Jim Rutherford who isn’t afraid to make moves ahead of the deadline. Mind you, he normally prefers a January trade to a February deal and that hasn’t happened yet.
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There are a couple of potential deals I believe Rutherford is thinking of: Dealing away pending UFA forward Alex Galchenyuk for either a draft pick or a bottom-six forward. Or, a more impactful move, is to go out and try to make a deal for a top-nine forward in lieu of Guentzel’s long-term injury. Jason Zucker (three more years on his contract after this season at a $5.5-million cap hit) was of interest to Rutherford during the offseason in the failed Phil Kessel deal with Minnesota. It wouldn’t surprise me if he circled back on him now. I wonder if Pittsburgh would call Montreal on Tomas Tatar, who has a year and a half left on his deal. I’m not even sure the Canadiens would move him, he’s been so good for them since coming over from Vegas. But I don’t mind that fit. Perhaps Tyler Toffoli as a rental makes sense. Either way, as always, don’t sleep on Rutherford at this time of year. He’s got options.
One thing about Lou Lamoriello is that he is always honest about his teams. He doesn’t sell himself into believing one thing or another other than what he knows to be the absolute, raw truth. And that truth is that since that amazing 15-0-2 run earlier this season, the Isles have gone 13-12-3, they’ve fallen back to being more like a middle-of-the-pack playoff team, still good, but not elite. The standings tell you as much, their 63 points at the break has them more closely aligned with the teams chasing them, Columbus (62), Carolina (61) and Philadelphia (60) than the Penguins (67) in second place ahead of them. So if you’re the GM, what do you do? You try to add but in a measured way. The team isn’t one player away from winning the Cup. But the right trade could add a little boost to an area and help a well-coached team get on a little playoff run.
The thing about this team is that if they can get in again, they give someone a handful, guaranteed, with their through-the-roof work ethic and grind-away game that’s more suited for playoff hockey. The Isles are 21st in the NHL in goals per game and I think it’s clear a boost up front is the obvious item on the to-do list. They need a top-nine forward. But if you’re Lamoriello you have to try and make sure it’s a player that will come in and fit in with the kind of system the Isles play. Remember when Tatar went to Vegas at the deadline and didn’t fit in with the expansion juggernaut? So while a guy like Toffoli is clearly going to get dealt somewhere by the Kings, does the former 30-goal scorer fit in with the Isles? That’s what is going to fascinate me the most about what Lamoriello does, or doesn’t do, ahead of the deadline. The guy who might actually fit best is pending UFA winger Chris Kreider, other than the fact I can’t imagine the rival Rangers wanting to engage in that conversation.
Islanders beat writer Arthur Staple mentioned the team could also be looking for a defenceman.
Columbus Blue Jackets
A year ago, there was no bigger player at the deadline than Jackets GM Jarmo Kekalainen, who decided to go all-in by believing in his team, keeping pending UFA stars Artemi Panarin and Sergei Bobrovsky, adding Matt Duchene and Ryan Dzingel as rentals and then proceeding to shock 62-win Tampa Bay in the first round. Fun! Not to say the Blue Jackets GM won’t make any news before this trade deadline but in all likelihood he won’t be the top headline. For starters, because the team doesn’t own a second- or third-round pick in the June draft or a second-round draft pick in 2021, the team’s first-rounder for June is completely off limits. And really, I don’t think the resurgent Jackets get in on the rental player market in any meaningful way. But because the team does have a healthy salary cap situation, it could potentially weaponize it to either improve the roster or get some draft picks back. If the Jackets do add a player it will be in the form of a top-nine forward and most likely a player that has term left on his deal past year this year, so a hockey deal. They would deal from their surplus on D if possible.
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Carolina Hurricanes
The deadline plan, as I understand it, for the Canes before Dougie Hamilton got hurt was two-fold: Acquire a more defensive blueliner and perhaps add some insurance in goal. The Hamilton injury only puts more stress on perhaps adding a top-4 D but I think one with a more defensive acumen. They’ve got plenty of offence still on that back end between the wonderful Jaccob Slavin and Jake Gardiner. Would pending UFA Brenden Dillon in San Jose make sense? I believe the Hurricanes have already inquired with the Sharks on him. He’s a rugged, physical, penalty killing D. Or does the versatile Alec Martinez in LA, who has another year on his contract, make sense? The Canes have monitored closely what’s going on in Chicago with netminder Robin Lehner, whom they tried to sign last summer. If the Hawks make him available, which right now they haven’t, Carolina would probably inquire. Meanwhile, the return of Justin Williams has been like a trade deadline addition up front. He’s been dynamite right off the hop.
Philadelphia Flyers
At some point, I’d say about a week before the deadline, the Flyers’ front office will have to make its best possible prognosis on whether Nolan Patrick is going to be a player for them this season. The poor kid has been battling migraine issues all season. But he has been skating. What a boost it might be if he came back. They need a boost at centre. But if they’re just not sure come mid-February, there will be an onus on GM Chuck Fletcher if his team is still in the playoff chase to upgrade at centre. Which won’t be easy given the team’s salary cap situation. Obviously Jean-Gabriel Pageau would be a top-lister in terms of fit. But the competition for his services and the bidding price might be too much. A low-end option but a guy who has done a good job as fourth-line centre in Montreal is pending UFA Nate Thompson whom the Habs will likely rent out. I don’t mind him as a fit in Philadelphia. Pending UFA centre Trevor Lewis would be a similar option. Remember that former Kings GM Dean Lombardi is now working in Fletcher’s front office in Philly. But the best-case scenario is Patrick returning, both for the 21-year-old’s well-being and the Flyers’ lineup potency.
New York Rangers
My sense is the Rangers want to take as long as they can to see where they are at the deadline. Which is to say they haven’t pulled the plug on the season yet. It’s a daunting task in the Muscled Metro where six teams are already at 60 points or more, but the Blueshirts (50 points) want to use the dozen games left before the deadline to see if they can make a push. It signals that they want to compete again as soon as possible. Which means they’ve not ruled out re-signing their pending UFAs, if possible. Kreider is the headliner on the leaguewide trade deadline rental list and the team hasn’t begun contract talks yet.
“We haven’t been talking, which is not a big deal because there’s no rush,’’ Kreider’s agent Matt Keator told me Wednesday. Indeed, all it takes is one conversation about 10 days from the deadline to know whether or not both sides can get a deal done. Pending UFA Jesper Fast, a popular player and teammate, could also be on the move to a contending team looking to add bottom-six depth. But I think all things being equal the Rangers would rather re-sign him because he’s such a great role model for the younger players. Like Kreider, his camp had not heard from the Rangers yet regarding an extension. Still lots of time there to figure things out. And finally, there’s the three-goalie situation with the Rangers listening on Alexandar Georgiev but not necessarily fully committed to moving the 23-year-old. This can all be dealt with in June, too. But what I would say is the Rangers want to turn the page on rebuilding and take the next step sooner rather than later. Which means if they do trade Kreider, for example, the return will warrant it. It’s not a must to deal him.
Interim GM Tom Fitzgerald, since taking over, has taken the time to sit down with all the team’s pending UFAs and other veteran leaders to discuss the direction of the team. I love to hear when a GM has that kind of communication with his players. Because changes are indeed coming. One of the things Fitzgerald immediately got to doing once he took over was circle back to the GMs he was aware were having conversations with Ray Shero and finding out just how deep those had gone. Fitzgerald has three pending UFAs to deal with: Winger Wayne Simmonds and blueliners Sami Vatanen and captain Andy Greene.
Greene, 37, has a full no-trade clause so he will decide his fate. Does he want to go try and win a Cup somewhere before his career winds down? There has been no decision either way yet from Greene and he’s got time to get back to Fitzgerald. He’s only played for one NHL team his whole career and may find it hard to leave. But sometimes these things grow on a player as he spends more time thinking about it. He’d be a lovely addition for a top contender because he’s such a pro who, I think, would fit right in without disrupting his new surroundings. The harder questions roster-wise for Fitzgerald come in the form of forwards Kyle Palmieri and Blake Coleman, both with a year and a half left on their respective contracts. Shero, before being fired, was telling teams he wasn’t intending on moving Palmieri. Does that change now with Fitzgerald in charge? As of this week, no decision yet on that front but the Devils holding their pro scouting meetings in Florida this week will help shape those decisions.
Atlantic Division
Hindsight being 20/20, now that we’ve seen Ilya Kovalchuk reborn in Montreal, the Bruins probably should have taken a flyer on him. But I am the first to admit I never saw coming what has happened with Kovalchuk in Montreal. The Bruins did have a number of discussions with Kovalchuk’s agent but ultimately weren’t ready back in early January to make that plunge. And I can’t blame them. And to be fair, are we convinced Kovalchuk would have had the exact same impact in Boston? He arrived in a depleted Montreal lineup and got first-line minutes, including top power-play time, that would obviously not have been the case with the deeper Bruins. I suppose the Bruins could come calling Montreal closer to Feb. 24. Stranger things have happened but I was told this week that ship has probably sailed. Given Boston could have gotten him earlier without surrendering assets, spending a draft pick to get him now from a heated rival probably isn’t a great look.
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Whatever the case, I believe in GM Don Sweeney’s ability to find a top-nine forward before the deadline. He added Charlie Coyle and Marcus Johansson a year ago before the deadline for a total cost of a second-round pick, Ryan Donato and a fifth-round pick. We’ll see over time what he gave up in Donato but Coyle has fit right in and the second-round pick was totally worth it for the kind of playoff performance Johansson delivered. That Sweeney was able to add those two players without giving up a first-round pick was really good work. Tyler Toffoli could be a decent, second-line fit. He’s not a righty, but imagine Chris Kreider in a Bruins uniform. I love that thought. What becomes of David Backes’ future now that he’s cleared waivers could also have an impact on the Bruins’ deadline plans. If he decides to retire or there’s a mutual contract termination, the Bruins gain some valuable salary-cap space by removing his $6-million salary. But if he accepts his AHL demotion after the break, he’s still on the books.
Tampa Bay Lightning
The Bolts are back to being the high-flying Bolts but that doesn’t necessarily mean expect fireworks before the trade deadline. Yes, I expect Julien BriseBois to look closely at all the options on the market but in the end, I don’t think he sees any glaring hole in his lineup and something he told me last month is worth remembering:
“I recently went through the last 10 trade deadlines,” BriseBois said. “Every deal that was done leading up to the trade deadline. There aren’t too many that pan out. Like, the batting average is terrible. The year Washington won, of the eight teams that won the first round, I think seven had given up their first-round pick that year, including us. The one team that didn’t was Washington, they ended up winning the Cup. So it is tricky. But our job is to be on the lookout for opportunities. Make sure that you leave no stone unturned. You’re digging all the time for opportunities. And if there’s something there, you jump on it. But there aren’t that many out there, which is why there aren’t that many trades anymore.’’
A year ago I felt they needed more jam up front before the deadline, I loved the idea of Wayne Simmonds, but they signed Pat Maroon last summer which pretty much addresses that. I suppose maybe adding another bottom-six depth forward wouldn’t hurt but this organization has call-up depth at both forward and D.
While I don’t see a pressing need, if the Lightning do add a piece, I think it’s going to be on the blue line and preferably a RHD.
If other teams come calling and target Tampa’s pipeline, our Lightning beat writer Joe Smith recently did a deep dive on what the organization’s prospects look like.
The top-scoring team (3.67 GF/GP) at the All-Star break, what we know is the Panthers don’t need any offensive help. But they’re 24th in the league in goals against per game which is why it should come as no surprise that GM Dale Tallon, from what I can gather, is eying two things: A defensive, shutdown type blueliner as well as a two-way, checking forward. And in a perfect world, I think the Panthers would rather fill those needs in hockey deals and not rental players, find someone who can be part of their team past this season. Which I guess suggests pending UFA D Brenden Dillon isn’t the perfect fit although his defensive acumen is what Florida would want. The Panthers have a special thing going right now, sitting third in the Atlantic Division at the break. If they can add a defensive blueliner, they’ll feel even better about their playoff chances.
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The long-term injury to top defenceman Morgan Rielly was a gut punch for the Leafs. They had played to their strengths under new coach Sheldon Keefe but also show vulnerability defensively from time to time and it’s worse without Rielly and Jake Muzzin in the lineup. The latter should be back at some point soon after the break. But life without minute-munching Rielly could still prove to be rather difficult.
Obviously they need better goaltending from Frederik Andersen after the break and I think they’ll get that. The question is whether the Leafs decide to go after some backup goaltender insurance (the Rangers’ Georgiev will probably cost more than the Leafs are willing to pay) as well as go out and add some blue line help — all the while with very little cap room to maneuver with. I asked one rival Eastern Conference team executive what he would do if he were Toronto and he said he wouldn’t wait on the defensive front.
“I would get out in front of it and target the top 1-3 guys you wanted and get aggressive to acquire one/some of them,’’ said the team exec. “Brian Burke and Jim Rutherford always liked to do their deals way before the deadline which I think is smart. It gives you a better chance to control the deal and negotiate the terms with time as an advantage not a disadvantage.”
That’s exactly what Leafs GM Kyle Dubas did a year ago when he acquired Muzzin on Jan. 28. I wonder if going back to the Kings and inquiring about Alec Martinez wouldn’t make sense for Dubas. As of Thursday morning, I don’t believe the Leafs had shown any interest in Martinez yet. He’s not a rental so you wouldn’t be adding to your UFA blue line headache for this summer. What about Matt Dumba? That’s a bigger deal, it would probably cost the Leafs at least Kasperi Kapanen plus another asset. Dumba is 25 and signed at a $6-million cap hit for another three years past this season. Or does Toronto re-engage with Calgary after the failed Nazem Kadri trade last summer? T.J. Brodie (pending UFA) was the D the Leafs were targeting in that deal (I should note that the Leafs are still on Brodie’s eight-team no-trade list, although it doesn’t mean he can’t waive it). What about Josh Manson? He’s got two more years on his deal at a $4.1 million cap hit after this season and a modified no-trade clause but if I’m Dubas I would at least inquire to see what kind of hockey deal it would take to get Anaheim at least listening.
There are options out there for the Leafs on the D market but the good ones won’t come cheap. I don’t think Dubas wants to trade Kapanen, at least not this season, but as our Leafs columnist James Mirtle pointed out, teams are likely going to call on Kapanen.
Even with winger Jeff Skinner expected back at some point soon after the break, my understanding is the Sabres continue to explore the market in search of forward help. I think they would basically move any defenceman not named Rasmus Dahlin or Henri Jokiharju to get it done in a hockey deal which means, yes, I think in the right trade for a forward the Sabres would listen on Rasmus Ristolainen. That could be the kind of trade that helps the team past this year. And of course, remember that Zach Bogosian asked for a trade earlier this season and he could also be on the move.
As for this season and what’s at stake over the next month, the Sabres come out of their break with 9 of 10 at home and that stretch will decide their fate as far as how GM Jason Botterill will operate the deadline. If they can close the gap in the race to four points or so, I think Botterill will keep his roster for the most part intact and give his team a chance for the rest of the season. But obviously, if they don’t gain any ground and it’s obvious after those 10 games or so that they’re out, well, they’ve got a few pending UFAs they can sell off and I think we’re talking the likes of forwards Connor Sheary, Zemgus Girgensons and Johan Larsson. But they’re not there yet, they want to see if their team can make hay out of the break first.
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Montreal Canadiens
The Habs showed some signs of life just before the break but the reality is that they will need to go on a very serious run starting next week to give themselves any chance of getting back in the race, sitting 10 points out of the last wild-card spot. As Habs columnist Arpon Basu wrote last weekend after the win over Vegas, the Canadiens probably need 44 out of the remaining 64 points up for grabs to make it into the playoffs. Yikes. They’ve got six of eight at home to start after the break although they’ve not been great at the Bell Centre this year. If they go on a tear does that give GM Marc Bergevin enough pause to keep his team intact?
Personally, I think the Habs already know they can go ahead and likely sell off pending UFA players such as Marco Scandella, Nate Thompson, and yes, Ilya Kovalchuk. If they are 8-9 points out by the time the second week of February rolls around, it makes no sense not to pick up draft picks for those players. The bigger question is what to do when teams come calling on Tomas Tatar and/or Jeff Petry, both of whom have a year and a half left on their respective contracts. I think there’s very little appetite from Bergevin to deal away Petry. The Canadiens want to compete next year. They feel without injuries they would have stayed closer to a playoff spot this season and I don’t disagree. Their underlying numbers suggest a team that competes at a playoff team level. They probably struggle to see how they replace Petry’s usage and minutes in the lineup for next season. The same is probably true for Tatar but I think at least with him they might listen if a team really stepped up.
The Habs host the draft in June and already have 11 picks on tap. They should add a few more before the deadline. Unless, of course, there’s magical run coming here after the break.
As I recently discussed with Senators GM Pierre Dorion, it’s already a mighty important June draft for the franchise with Ottawa owning two lottery picks (their own plus San Jose’s) plus three second-round picks and a high third-rounder. It’s a draft that should dramatically impact a rebuild that’s already showing promising young talent. More picks should be on the way with pending UFAs potentially being dealt, although I do think in Jean-Gabriel Pageau’s case, the Sens will talk contract with him within the next couple of weeks. If they can’t find a solution for an extension, then he will be a sought-after centre on the rental market. There aren’t many centres available anywhere, period. Other pending UFAs include blueliners Ron Hainsey, Dylan DeMelo and Mark Borowiecki, forwards Tyler Ennis and Vladislav Namestnikov and goalie Craig Anderson. On Hainsey, by the way, he’s got a 10-team no-trade list. My understanding is that the Senators have indicated an interest in re-signing him but we’ll see where that goes.
One thing to keep in mind with Steve Yzerman in his first year as GM in Detroit, we are far from seeing even the middle point of where this rebuild is headed, in my mind. If you look at Yzerman’s work in Tampa Bay and the massive overhaul there years ago, I think you can bank on something similar with the Wings. There is lots of work to be done. And I don’t know how much of it can be done at the trade deadline, to be quite honest. Sure Yzerman’s got pending UFAs he can flip for picks but goalie Jimmy Howard ($5.1 million cap hit) has struggled this season, veteran blueliner Mike Green ($5.375 million cap hit) has eight points in 41 games, and I don’t know how much Trevor Daley ($3.16 million cap hit) has left in the tank.
So I’m really not convinced those UFAs, who carry sizeable cap hits, are going to generate much unless Howard gets going after the break and convinces contending teams looking for goalie insurance he’s back to form. The real question is whether other teams entice Yzerman in the type of hockey deal he might examine come the offseason. Can Yzerman more forcibly start re-shaping the roster in February instead of waiting until June? Would he listen on RFAs such as Andreas Athanasiou? I don’t have the answer to that. But Yzerman has got eight RFAs on his NHL roster right now and you have to ask the question whether it makes sense that all eight are back next year given how things have gone. Let’s not kid ourselves here, the best way to kickstart a rebuild is to finally pick in top three. They haven’t drafted top 3 since 1990 when they took Keith Primeau third overall; they haven’t picked first overall since Joe Murphy in 1986. It’s a franchise in need of it.
Central Division
Is there really a roster need for a reigning Stanley Cup championship team leading the Western Conference? Remember that GM Doug Armstrong made a bold statement right out of the gates in September when he acquired blueliner Justin Faulk. The blue line is deep. If you’re going to look anywhere it’s up front where star winger Vladimir Tarasenko has been out most of the season after needing shoulder surgery. The timeline on his return looms large. If he’s back before the regular season ends, the Blues need to be cap compliant and have room to put his $7.5-million salary back on the books. If he’s not back until the playoffs a la Patrick Kane in 2015, then the cap-challenged Blues have $7.5 million to work with before the deadline. Armstrong joined us on our Two-Man Advantage Podcast this week, and he confirmed exactly that scenario, that at some point in mid-February they will have to make their best determination about when Tarasenko will return because obviously that has an effect on their deadline and cap space. At this point, Armstrong said on the podcast, the timeline is anywhere from March to May; there’s a huge difference in all that. Obviously they hope Tarasenko is back in March so he can play some regular season games before the playoffs. But if they find out he can’t come back until the playoffs are already underway, I would look for Armstrong to add.
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But not add for the sake of adding. They’ve got depth players in the organization. It would be adding for impact.
“Our depth is going to come from within,” Armstrong said on the podcast. “We have 23 players that we believe in but (also) good players in the American Hockey League. So I don’t see a scenario where we’ll be spending a fifth-, fourth-, third-, sixth-round pick to get a player that’s going to provide depth for us. If there’s a player out there that can fit into our top echelon, we can take a look at that. That’s only because, quite honestly, Vladdy we’re not sure where he’s going to be. Other than that, we like our group.’’
The player I like as a fit for the Blues, as I’ve mentioned before, is Chris Kreider. His abrasive style fits well with the way the Blues play. That’s if Kreider doesn’t re-sign with the Rangers, of course. But a top-six forward is probably where I would look as a potential luxury item for a Blues team that really doesn’t need a whole lot.
Not that the Avs have any obvious holes on their blue line, but if you’re a team planning/hoping to grind out two months of playoff hockey, you’re going to need 9-10 D to get through it in all likelihood. It’s why as I’ve written before, I love the idea of Alec Martinez to Colorado. He’s got a year and a half left on his deal so the Avs get at least two playoff runs out of him. Guys like Ian Cole and Erik Johnson could perhaps use some load management. Martinez is a lefty who can play both sides. His versatility would help head coach Jared Bednar mix and match where he would use him. And I mean, as the excellent Ryan Clark wrote recently, the Avs had a shaky stretch defensively that seems to be corrected now but to me still underlines why they would want to add another D.
If there’s another need, and it’s not a big one, some bottom six forward depth wouldn’t hurt. The Avs have the most salary cap room in the league and they’ve got an exciting team that can do damage. I would like to see them be aggressive in trying to add before Feb. 24.
To that end, and while it’s not a priority need, keep an eye on Colorado as dark horse candidate for Chris Kreider if the Rangers made him available. As I said, I think adding a blueliner is a bigger priority but the thought of Kreider’s speed, sandpaper and skill on the same line as Nazem Kadri is something to think about.
In the category of something that keeps surprising me is the fact that the Stars were 28th in the NHL in goals per game last season and have followed that up this season by being … 27th in the NHL in goals per game through Wednesday. Now, when you rank No. 1 in the NHL in goals-against per game, you can overcome those offensive issues. But still, the offence stinks. Leading scorer Tyler Seguin has 36 points, which is outside the top 70 scorers in the NHL. Alexander Radulov has 28 points. Jamie Benn has 23 points in 48 games and former Sharks captain Joe Pavelski has struggled in his new surroundings with just 19 points in 48 games. Across the board, it hurts your eyes looking at their offensive stats. But because the Stars are the top defensive team in the NHL with excellent goaltending and a deep blue line, they’re still a playoff team right now. It would behoove Stars GM Jim Nill to go shopping for a top-six forward, but the reality is that one player isn’t going to cure the team’s offensive woes in part because there isn’t a player available on the trade market that’s going to have that kind of an impact. The player they truly need is a top-end, playmaking centre. Good luck. It would still be worth adding a guy like Tyler Toffoli but the offensive turnaround has to come from within, from the team’s highest-paid forwards.
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Winnipeg Jets
Oh man, losing top defensive centre Adam Lowry for a month hurts for a Jets team that has tried so hard to hang in the fight despite a depleted blue line made worse by Dustin Byfuglien’s shocking training camp decision. That Byfuglien situation still looms large, of course. His $7.6-million cap hit is off the books while he remains suspended. The Jets will need clarity on that before Feb. 24 if they can make any impactful move. There’s no question in my mind that between the Lowry and Bryan Little injuries up front and the blue line issues, that Jets GM Kevin Cheveldayoff will look at all options on the market to try to help his team in both areas if he can. I think he wants to reward his group for the kind of effort it has put out to make this a season that could result in a playoff berth even if they went into the break wobbling and looking fried. If Little comes back at some point over the next month (he is skating but there is no firm timeline yet) the more pressing need would be on D. The Jets have their top three picks in the June draft so the full arsenal in terms of the kind of assets sellers look for at this time of year. But Winnipeg also has to stay in the race, the next 2-3 weeks looms large in indicating just that.
If there’s a team that better embodies how a month out matters before the deadline, it’s certainly Chicago. The resurgent Blackhawks were obvious sellers just a few weeks ago, now they’re in the thick of the race, but who knows how the next four weeks play out? For that reason, Hawks GM Stan Bowman has to see how his team continues to play before he makes any such decision in terms of the deadline. If his team falls out of it, he’s got UFA decisions in goal; it’s been well documented that both Robin Lehner and Corey Crawford are up. The Hawks had a brief conversation, according to a source, with Lehner’s camp last week and had planned to follow up again this week. Of course, if the Hawks stay in the race it’s a matter that can end up waiting until after the season. But if they slip out of it over the next month, that will put pressure on a decision. As I’ve mentioned before, Carolina likes Lehner a lot; the Canes tried to sign him last summer. Meanwhile, if the Hawks fall out of it, another decision would be needed on pending UFA D Erik Gustafsson.
Given that the Hawks are devoid of a second-round pick for the June draft, recouping some picks might also make sense if possible, perhaps using the LTIR sap space that Brent Seabrook gives them to acquire a contract or two for draft picks, in other words use their cap space that way.
Time. That’s what veteran GM David Poile needs. More time before he figures out what he’s going to do at the trade deadline. Is he buying or selling? The Preds have 14 games to go before the deadline. That decision on buying or selling will be made before the 14 games are through. Poile would love to buy again. That would mean his team got back in the playoff race with a huge run post-All-Star break. But he also knows he might have to be a seller if their inconsistent ways continue. And the Preds have a few interesting pieces if they sell. Forwards Mikael Granlund and Craig Smith are both pending UFAs. And would he listen on centre Nick Bonino, who has a year and a half left on his deal ($4.1-million cap hit)? These are questions Poile hopes to avoid. He made the coaching change because he hoped to provide a spark to a team that’s contended for a long time but has meandered for much of this season. The Predators becoming sellers closer to Feb. 24 would add some names to a thin list of rentals as of now.
Minnesota Wild
If there’s a team that’s more like a box of chocolates in the NHL, you let me know. You just never know what you’re going to get with the Wild. Odds are, first-year GM Bill Guerin will end up being a seller but the thing is, he doesn’t have many rental players up for grabs. Mikko Koivu is the only pending UFA on the roster and the longtime captain has a full no-move clause. So if Guerin does act before the deadline, it’s a hockey deal. It certainly piqued my interest recently when TSN colleague Darren Dreger reported on our Insider Trading segment that 25-year-old blueliner Matt Dumba would be a player Guerin might potentially listen on, which our excellent Wild beat writer Michael Russo also suggested this week in his deep dive on the Wild and the trade deadline.
Dumba has three more years on his deal after this season at a $6-million cap hit. It’s not like the Wild would be in a rush to trade a young player of that calibre, but I think what you extrapolate from that possibility — which another source also confirmed to be not out of the question — is that Guerin has to think bigger picture if he’s going to enact real change on the roster he inherited and to bring in new, impactful talent he’s going to have to trade away a good player, too. It doesn’t have to be Dumba, of course, it could be another core player. But the message here is that if Guerin gets busy before Feb. 24 it’s the type of deal you would normally see in June.
Pacific Division
After a patient retooling, GM Jim Benning was hoping/planning that this was the season his squad would be in the fight and so far, so good. They’re in a playoff battle. They could even win the wide-open Pacific Division. Whether or not they can find any breathing room to declare themselves buyers remains to be seen. The thing is, I’m not convinced there’s an emergency roster need when this roster is healthy. Brandon Sutter recently returned before the break, the Canucks hope to get Micheal Ferland back in the next month, so that’s adding two, top-nine forwards with experience for the second half. And I think what Benning wants to do is get a good look at his mostly healthy lineup before he decided if he needs to add or not before the deadline. I also think the Canucks GM will be wary of anything that affects the chemistry of his team. So he will be careful that if he adds, it will be a player that fits in with a tight group. Now if for whatever reason they get hammered by injuries over the next month and fall out of the race, there is the question of pending UFAs Chris Tanev and Jacob Markstrom. But all things being equal, and if the Canucks stay in the race, those are matters that don’t necessarily need resolution before the deadline. That can wait until after the season although re-signing Markstrom, in particular, is a priority. You might also think that the Canucks go out and add some bottom-six forward depth, and that’s possible, but I also think Benning might look at AHLers like Justin Bailey and Zack MacEwen as internal options. And finally, Sven Baertschi (one more year next season at a $3.36-million cap hit) has been available for a long time and the Canucks still hope to find a new home for him before the deadline. If the Canucks don’t do much before the deadline, remember they acted with impact last summer, trading a first-round pick for top-six forward J.T. Miller (great deal as it turns out), and signing top four blueliner Tyler Myers. My point is that I’m not sure trading away a second-round pick after not having the first-round pick makes much sense at this point.
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Calgary Flames
As we discussed in my Q&A with Brad Treliving last week, when the Flames GM traded Michael Frolik and his $4.3-million cap hit to Buffalo earlier this month, it gave him the flexibility to go out now and add a piece before the deadline. My sense is that a top-six, right-hand shot forward is the priority item. It’s why I like the idea of winger Tyler Toffoli from the Kings, but Senators centre Jean-Gabriel Pageau would be a nice fit, too, among others. There are teams who for a long while have hoped to buy low on Sam Bennett but Treliving wasn’t born yesterday and it’s why so far over the past two years when teams have tried he has resisted. But how long does that patience last? Maybe it’s finally time to use Bennett in a hockey deal. T.J. Brodie and Travis Hamonic are pending UFAs but as long as the Flames stay in playoff contention, those aren’t files that have to be addressed before the deadline. Having said that, I wouldn’t rule out a guy like Brodie being a target from another team trying to satisfy Calgary’s right-shot, top-six forward need. Remember that the Maple Leafs had trade talks involving Nazem Kadri going to Calgary last summer and word is Brodie was part of that. Could the two teams re-engage with Kasperi Kapanen as the Calgary target? At the end of the day, I still think Toffoli makes the most sense.
In my Q&A with Ken Holland a few weeks ago, the Oilers GM said the standings closer to Feb. 24 would essentially decide his trade deadline plan. He is itching to be a buyer, he wants to reward his group for staying in it. And for a team that has made the playoffs once in 13 years, it’s important to make it. But Holland is also mindful of the pitfalls of short-term thinking for a team that has holes and needs a long-term approach in certain areas. So it’s a balancing act for Holland. I do think he’d like to add a top-six forward if his team stays in it. I’ve mentioned Pageau before as a nice fit; no question he’s high on Edmonton’s radar, among other names. Would Holland make a call to Montreal on Tomas Tatar (a year and a half left on his deal), a player he knows well? What about calling Toronto on Kasperi Kapanen or Andreas Johnsson? That would require the Oilers moving a D and I’m not sure that’s the right time for that. Will Holland dangle the rights to RFA Jesse Puljujarvi? The Finnish forward can’t play in the NHL this season because he wasn’t signed by Dec. 1 but it doesn’t mean a non-playoff team doesn’t look ahead to the offseason and try to snag him before Feb. 24. I think it’s more likely Holland addresses that situation come June but he’s open to taking calls. Oilers beat writer Jonathan Willis this week updated this list of potential players Edmonton might trade.
Vegas Golden Knights
The firing of Gerard Gallant, as some people around the league have suggested to me, smells of a 75-year-old owner in Bill Foley who has grown frustrated with the season because he wants to win now. That’s what happens when you get to the Stanley Cup final in your first year. You get a taste for it. With that context in mind, keep an eye on what GM Kelly McCrimmon does at the deadline. Like so many teams, the Knights are right up against the cap, so it won’t be easy to add. But if I were to identify a need, it would be for a top-four D. Does Alec Martinez make sense? Would Vegas try to entice Montreal to part ways with Jeff Petry (who has a year and a half left on his deal)? I truly think Habs GM Marc Bergevin does not want to move him at all because Montreal wants to compete against next year. Whatever the case, if Vegas is going to upgrade the roster, that’s the type of player I would look for.
The ‘Yotes already spent some asset capital winning the Taylor Hall sweepstakes in November so I’m not too sure how aggressive GM John Chayka can be ahead of Feb. 24, especially with his team not assured of anything yet as far as making the playoffs in the crazy, five-team race in the Pacific Division. On the other hand, maybe he is this year’s Jarmo Kekalainen from last season and says, ‘In for a penny in for a pound.’ The problem is that the Coyotes are right at the cap so it would require from delicate maneuvering to do anything of substance. I do think Chayka will look at two potential areas: finding a centre, that would be priority No. 1, and then a gritty forward perhaps, though that’s more of a luxury item.
Getting starting goalie Darcy Kuemper back at some point after the break will be like a big addition in itself; he’s been out since Dec. 19.
San Jose Sharks
The Sharks are sellers but as I wrote recently, I don’t think they plan on blowing up the whole thing. There will be changes but they hope to rebound next season around a core they believe in. In the meantime, there are two obvious players to potentially move in pending UFAs Melker Karlsson and Brenden Dillon. There are teams who have been keeping a close watch of Dillon, including Carolina. But another team who likes him also told me, “we don’t like his salary.” With cap room at a premium for contending teams, Dillon’s $3.27-million cap hit could prove prohibitive for teams who view him as a No. 5 on their squad; as a second-pairing player, his salary is fine. Of course, the Sharks can eat part of his salary to help make a trade happen and maximize the asset return. I like Dillon, he’s a physical, defensive D whose toolbox is better suited for when the hockey gets greasier in the playoffs. He should fetch a second-round pick.
Anaheim Ducks
The Ducks are looking to next year, that much is clear, but they don’t really have any impactful rental players available. Pending UFA blueliner Michael Del Zotto could be moved once again and be a depth piece for a contender. The more interesting thing is whether Anaheim is able to weaponize its salary cap space as it has apparently told teams it is willing to do. The Ducks are willing to take on a bad contract if it means getting a good young asset or two out of it. I tell you what I’d contemplate if I were Ducks GM Bob Murray: Why not rent out pending UFA Alex Galchenyuk for the rest of the season? Give him a test drive to get a close eye at him and see if a fresh start ignites the 2012 first-round pick who is still 25. For a middling pick, why not?
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While Murray is not shopping any of his core players, my understanding is that he is willing to listen. In the end, Murray may not move anyone of significance, but a disappointing season combined with a ton of cap makes the Ducks an intriguing team to watch before Feb. 24.
Los Angeles Kings
The program to create roster openings for the organization’s younger players will continue with this deadline. The Kings have pending UFAs in Tyler Toffoli, Trevor Lewis, Kyle Clifford, Derek Forbort and Ben Hutton. They won’t all necessarily move but I think it’s a good bet Toffoli and Lewis generate interest and find a new home for the rest of the season. As I wrote about recently, the Kings are also willing to listen on veteran blueliner Alec Martinez, who has another year on his deal after this season. They moved Jake Muzzin last January under similar circumstances. I know a few teams that weren’t enamoured with what they saw in Martinez after he returned from injury but his body of work is solid and I think a contender would be smart to invest here especially since they’d be guaranteed at least two playoff runs with him.
(Top photo of Chris Kreider: Bruce Bennett / Getty Images)
