Alabama football is seemingly at a crossroads with division rival LSU winning the national championship and cross-division recent rival Georgia nipping at the Crimson Tide’s heels in recruiting rankings.
How the program closes out its 2020 recruiting class and manages its coaching staff will set the stage for spring practice, which is less than seven weeks away. There aren’t many spots left in the class, and there has been one coaching staff move already with Freddie Roach out recruiting for the program. Karl Scott also reportedly turned down an offer to join Dave Aranda’s Baylor staff. If that’s where the staff churn ends, it wouldn’t be the worst thing after season upon season of mass turnover.
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Given this moment in time, I’m attempting to forecast what’s to come in the next year. Here are 10 predictions for the 2020 season.
1. A graduate transfer comes to Tuscaloosa
It’s become the norm that transfers depart the program, but for the second consecutive season, the transfer portal will benefit Alabama. As I wrote in the offense and defense projected depth charts, I expect the coaching staff to pursue a graduate transfer at tight end and safety. Along those lines, North Carolina tight end Carl Tucker took an unofficial visit over the weekend. With numbers getting tight, it’s unknown if they’ll have room to pursue both positions, but if the right players become available, they will. Nick Saban has always made the numbers work.
2. A running back will enter the transfer portal
Let’s be honest for a second. There weren’t many who expected running back Najee Harris to return for his senior season. His return leaves the running back room very crowded for the season. Besides Harris, there’s Brian Robinson, Trey Sanders, Keilan Robinson and Jase McClellan, and Roydell Williams and Kyle Edwards will join the program over the summer. It’s possible for all seven scholarship running backs to stay, especially considering four are true or redshirt freshmen. But in today’s college football, where lanes to transfer are more available than ever, it’s not unreasonable to expect one to exit.
3. Alabama starts the season 3-0
One of the major narratives of the 2019 season was the lack of relative strength of the schedule. That’s not the case this season with USC and Georgia awaiting in two of the first three weeks. The neutral-site contest against the Trojans is a major test right off the bat, and USC has some returning pieces that could concern UA. Georgia then comes to Bryant-Denny Stadium on Sept. 19. That could be a top-five matchup early in the season, but given the game is at home and that the Bulldogs are breaking in a new quarterback, I think Alabama starts the season 3-0 and that strength of schedule will boost UA to No. 1 in the polls.
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4. Jaylen Waddle leads the team in receiving
The junior wide receiver has shown his talent plenty of times during his first two seasons on campus, especially in the Auburn game in which he had three receiving touchdowns and a kick return for a touchdown. But he’s at times been in the shadows, considering the guys he had in from of him. Now that Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs III are gone, it’s Waddle’s time to shine. He’ll headline the receiving group with DeVonta Smith, and I expect him to have a huge season. Regardless of who the quarterback is, Waddle is going to get open. Throw in his return ability, and it’s not crazy to think he could be in the running for SEC Offensive Player of the Year.
5. Will Reichard ends the kicking woes
It’s as popular a narrative as there is in college sports, and for good reason. When that game-tying field goal attempt bounced off the left upright at the end of the Auburn game, it played out again. However, a healthy Reichard will end those struggles. Reichard was injured for much of the season and didn’t get many opportunities, attempting only seven field goals on the season. Now that he’s healthy, I expect Reichard to show the promise that made him the nation’s top prep kicker. Alabama saw good field goal kicking last year from the opponents, which didn’t miss a kick attempted against the Crimson Tide all season. Reichard won’t be perfect, but I expect him to make 80 percent of his kicks in 2020.
6. Dylan Moses will be an All-American
Moses will prove the wisdom in his decision to return for his senior season when he’s named an All-American linebacker at the end of the year. Moses has all the talent to make this happen, but knee injuries can linger with a player. Depending on the severity of the injury, it can sometimes take more than a year to make a full comeback to the level of play a player had before. See Dont’a Hightower. But Moses will hit the ground running for the defense. It’s his defense this season, and he’s going to make it a monster one.
7. The defense finishes in the top 10
The defense had many detractors in 2019, and it’s understandable. The group couldn’t stop the run with the same efficiency as it did in the past. Buoyed by the return of its captain in Moses, the run defense should improve immediately. A healthy DJ Dale will be a big part of that, as well, as will be finding a replacement for Anfernee Jennings, the edge setter for the defense. The defense finished with its lowest national rank in total defense since 2007. If there’s a concern to start the season, it will actually be in pass defense, which lost four of five starters from the 2019 secondary.
8. Nick Saban will manage the quarterback competition
There’s no perfect way to handle a quarterback competition in today’s college football. It seems as soon as a coach names a starter, the second-place finisher enters the transfer portal. It’s not unreasonable to expect an Alabama quarterback to enter the portal after a starter is decided in the fall. Notice I didn’t use the word “named.” Saban has been through this song and dance multiple times in recent years. From Blake Sims and Jake Coker to Blake Barnett and Jalen Hurts to Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa, he’s never really named a starter. He’s let the competition play out into the regular season and the starter just reveals himself. That’s the way this season will play out, too. Of course, Mac Jones has a significant head start on the others with the way he played against Auburn and Michigan. Speaking of which …
9. Mac Jones opens the season as a starter
The redshirt junior has enough of a head start and will hold that advantage through fall camp to the first game of the season. Jones will take the first snaps against USC, and nothing with the way he played against the Tigers and Wolverines suggests he’ll do anything to lose that advantage. The only thing that will stop Jones from gaining a stranglehold on the job is if becomes a turnover machine in practices/scrimmages. He’s shown he’s capable of leading the huddle and commanding respect from the team. If he just continues doing what he’s done to this point, The Joker is your starting quarterback.
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10. Alabama wins the West
The world is shining on LSU right now. Everything is coming up Tigers. From viral videos in the White House to the momentum on the recruiting trail, Ed Orgeron’s program is on top. But they won’t stay there, at least not this year. The Tigers lost too much. There is no replacing Joe Burrow, no matter how talented Myles Brennan is. That’s part of the reason Alabama returns to Atlanta to represent the West in the SEC Championship Game. Alabama has question marks of its own, to be sure, but the offense returns enough to allow the defense time to figure it out. The running game will be good with a powerful offensive line in front paving the way. The receiving corps is still one of the best in the conference, making the job easy for whomever the quarterback is. If the defense does indeed bounce back, this is a team that should be in Atlanta come December.
(Photo of Mac Jones: Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images)