Cowboys Weekend Riffing: Week 15 at Indianapolis - and diagnosing the red-zone issues

142 days since training camp opened in Oxnard, 51 days until Super Bowl 53 in Atlanta, and just two more days until the Week 15 trip to Indianapolis to take on the Colts at noon….

The Cowboys are red-hot entering Sunday’s rare cross-conference showdown as the 2018 season turns toward its final stretch. 2017 was a very disappointing campaign, and the first several weeks of 2018 appeared different, but lousy in their own way. Now the team is on fire and seems to be on a fast track for the postseason. How did they quickly flip a switch from lousy to where they are now as the team nobody wants to play? Theories abound. But they are in a really good spot presently, after everyone left them for dead weeks back.

The 2018 Indianapolis Colts have followed a similar formula. After starting 1-5, nobody expected the Colts to dream about playoff games. Since 1990, 97 teams have started 1-5 and only one, the 2015 Kansas City Chiefs, made the playoffs. But they have worked their way up the standings by winning six of their last seven and are poised to push their way right into the AFC tournament. They badly need Sunday’s game.

The Cowboys and Colts have followed a somewhat similar path to this point in the road over the last 24 months, and for me, this will be a fantastic opportunity for Jason Garrett to demonstrate why he is the man for this job. I have always claimed the biggest objective for a head coach when it comes to the game itself is to find a way to instill in his men the emotional understanding of what level each game demands. The Cowboys consistently play hard and seem to rise up for their biggest games. But after the five weeks or so of new emotional challenges each week, is this one ripe for a letdown? Look at the stretch they have been on:

November 11th – Sunday night football in Philadelphia with the season hanging by a string.

November 18th – A revenge opportunity, returning to the site of last year’s demise in Atlanta.

November 22nd – Thanksgiving Day versus a divisional rival that beat you one month earlier.

November 29th – A chance to spring the biggest home upset of Garrett era against the Saints with whole NFL watching.

December 9th – The battle for the NFC East crown and a chance to end the Eagles’ run on top.

Seldom will you see five consecutive weeks where the schedule takes care of the emotion all by itself. It doesn’t require a big speech or grand gestures. The team was not going to struggle to get up for those tests.

But we know how this sport works.  We also know that at some point, emotional play exhausts a team’s peak energy. Will it happen Sunday? It’s a noon game against an AFC team that you have no venom for and seldom see, and the opponent desperately needs the game — more than you. The Cowboys have been told just how great they are all week. Their urgency level has also dropped considerably now that it appears Washington and Philadelphia are doomed. For the first time in a huge stretch, the human emotion of desperation may not be on the Cowboys’ side when they take the field against a team that is probably in their same tier.

Either the Cowboys are up for it when toe meets leather at 12:01 central time Sunday, or the good times will end this week in Indianapolis. If I am Jason Garrett, I think hard about what I say to the team Saturday night and Sunday morning to try to push any emotional buttons I can think of.

Let’s look at some of the key matchups that will decide this game, with the benefit of our “nickel down” roster charts below. When a team needs a third down, thanks to our graphics man Skyler Thiot, here is what the two lineups might look like.

WHEN THE COWBOYS HAVE THE BALL

For the sake of discussion, let’s assume Zack Martin will play on Sunday (the benefit of the doubt goes to players who have never missed a game), but each team has a key offensive lineman who is an outstanding player. Both are game-time decisions.

Here are the Cowboys’ offensive rankings:

It is interesting, of course, to see how badly the Cowboys buried themselves in September and October. Since the Amari Cooper trade, they aren’t 20th in total offense. They are actually ninth. They are not 25th in passing, they are 10th.  They are not 32rd in points, but 12th. They are not 12th on third downs, but actually second. Now, the red zone (32nd) and the sack (28th) rankings remain poor, but surely that should raise some optimism about the true identity of this offense. Yes, they are still missing some big opportunities, but the offense in Dallas for six weeks now does not resemble what was going on before the trade.

This week they square off against a very young Colts defense and one that can really put some speed on the field. No team in the NFL has played more rookie snaps in 2018 than the Colts, who are trying to completely remake their roster and benefited nicely from the Sam Darnold trade last April. Not only did they completely rebuild their offensive line, but they also overhauled their defensive front. On Sunday in nickel situations, you will see 2018 second-round rookies Darius Leonard, Tyquan Lewis, and Kemoko Turay all take the field and make a difference. They are young and with Matt Eberflus at the helm, they will have an idea of what Dallas likes to do.

Prescott will definitely want to be sure he knows where the Colts safeties are, as 2017 first-round pick Malik Hooker (still 22 years old) can cover plenty of ground in center field and seems more like a cornerback playing safety. Up front, the Colts have several under-rated veterans in their rotation. SMU’s Margus Hunt and Mississippi State’s Denico Autry are both having their best professional season with the Colts this year, and the well-traveled Jabaal Sheard is nearing 50 career sacks and is always around the QB. I assume he will be testing La’el Collins all day long.

We know the Eberflus coaching style with all of his Rod Marinelli influences. Nobody blitzes less in the NFL this season than the Colts’ 14.9% rate. In particular, they are dead last in pressure calls on third down, and certainly want to make you show patience and drive the ball down the field rather than getting beat big. As you know, this might actually play nicely into the Cowboys’ strengths if they can be efficient on third downs and the red zone.

And, yes, if there was a week where settling for field goals at the end of long drives will probably get you beat, this will be the week.

WHEN THE COLTS HAVE THE BALL

Of all of the hot takes 2018 has brought, I most regret reading too much into the early weeks of Andrew Luck’s return season and deducing that his arm might be forever shredded. He missed all of 2017 and the league was on full alert when he was being sheltered heavily in training camp and then was just dumping the ball out quickly over and over again without his patented deep shots and big plays early. There was even the oddity of being replaced for a Hail Mary throw in Philadelphia, which really got us all worked up.

Thankfully, those concerns have proven to be ridiculous. Luck is back, and in some ways, better than ever. Frank Reich has proven to be a strong hire and, in particular, his grasp for designing a quick-hitting offense that moves the chains and keeps a QB from taking a beating is on full display.

The Colts led the NFL in sacks allowed from 2016-2017. 100 sacks against in two seasons had everyone blaming their QB for holding the ball too much (even though they ended up starting a few different QBs.) This is where I think it is important for me to raise my disagreement with this new analytic claim that sacks are a QB stat. The theory is that a QB can control if he is sacked by merely getting rid of the ball. Now, it might take 3,000 words to fully make my point, but I think Luck going from the most-sacked QB in 2016 to nearly the least-sacked QB in 2018 (which was his very next season) demonstrates the many elements that go into sacks — from offensive line personnel to scheme, execution, and yes, the QB’s trigger to get the ball out.

If you think it is a just QB stat as many in the football analytics community insist, you lessen the impact of drafting the spectacular Quenton Nelson out of Notre Dame at the top of the 2018 draft, then Braden Smith out of Auburn in Round 2. Add that to the return of excellent center Ryan Kelly (who is racing to get healthy for Sunday) and then you have substantially upgraded three of the five offensive line positions. Now, bring in Reich’s quick-hitting scheme, and presto — the QB is no longer getting sacked. He is recently coming off a six-week stretch where he was sacked just once in 193 pass attempts! These pieces of evidence make it difficult for me to blame sacks on the QB alone. He plays a role, but I might divide it into thirds: 33% QB, 33% competent OL play, and 33% scheme. Of course, each particular sack will move those percentages, but as a whole, I see it like this and therefore don’t buy ESPN’s QBR, which heavily debits sacks on the ledger of the QB.

Regardless of that mini-rant, we should know that the Colts do their damage through the air, primarily with old familiar names like the great T.Y. Hilton — who will absolutely destroy your game plan by getting loose a time or two downfield. He also brings down contested catches as well as anyone this side of Antonio Brown. He is an amazing player who has been overlooked in recent years, but that is our fault. He is still as awesome as ever.

Add to that the breakout season of Eric Ebron, who was drafted right before Odell Beckham in Detroit and then was a frustrating part of their offense for four years. Surely, if Matthew Stafford and that attack couldn’t figure him out, maybe there was nothing to figure out. Well, he took the short ride to Indy for two years and $13 million, and with 12 touchdowns in 13 weeks, has already exceeded his four-year touchdown total in Detroit (11). He is someone to take careful note of, as probably the second-most likely target of Luck’s reads.

The Dallas defense is playing at a very high level, but on Sunday they will have to take their show on the road again, curtail the explosive plays and to try to turn this into a slugfest. Tackling well in the open field will be vital and forcing a few takeaways would be a key objective. I think this is a spot for the linebackers to continue their big season, particularly as Sean Lee potentially joins the existing Leighton Vander Esch-Jaylon Smith mix.

For me, this is yet another great test for the Cowboys. I think a loss would likely lock in the No. 4 seed (rather than sustaining the hope of leapfrogging Chicago), but you always get nervous playing on the road against a team that needs the game more than you do.

Not that my picks matter, but I think I have a slight lean towards the Colts here. I do love some of the smaller matchups in this noon start that could swing the game back to Dallas in this Super Bowl V rematch (a fact that I am sure is lost on every single player on the field on Sunday, and most readers, too).

COMMENTER MAILBAG:

Along with the joys of Prescott hitting Amari Cooper with regularity and ease on an increasing basis week after week, there is also an equal level of frustration regarding why he has such a hard time finding Michael Gallup on those deep passes.

Those two have not been in sync and most of the time we see two things in common: 1) Gallup always seems well behind his defenders and 2) The ball always seems well beyond Gallup’s reach.

Now, based on how you evaluate these things, you can blame the QB for every overthrow (as Twitter has done this season, with great insistence that all sacks and overthrows are definitely Dak’s fault.) Or you can notice that Gallup has, on several occasions, slowed down (likely not thinking the ball was coming his way) and that slight throttle-down would affect Prescott’s ability to hit a moving target.

At the same time, Prescott has missed his man on plays where Gallup does not seem to be at fault and the young Colorado State receiver appears to be doing very, very well. Now, the other thing to understand is the likelihood to hit passes that are at least 30 yards down the field. Across the NFL this season, the league number is a 28.6% completion rate. Prescott’s numbers are exactly at the same rate, which is uncanny — 28.6%. Here is the breakdown:

As you can see from the numbers above, he is 2-for-10 on plays to Gallup. That isn’t good, but if they would have hit on just one more, the pairing would be above league-average. Deep balls have very low probabilities of success, but reap huge yards-per-snap at 14.4 despite the odds. For that reason, you should run them often. Just lower your expectation levels on the frequency of a hit. Of course, you also have the added benefit of drawing a pass interference, too. Prescott is good at hitting these passes overall for his career — he did it at Mississippi State, too — and now they run it more often with Cooper on the roster drawing coverage.

But there is no doubt that Gallup and Prescott must improve and we must assume the timing will get better and better. The throws will improve and the route speeds will improve. The important part is that it is clear Gallup is a legit deep threat who gets behind coverage and also has a fine intermediate game. There is no question that the Cowboys have found a clear WR1 and WR2 for future seasons with Cooper and Gallup. Hit on 40% of the throws and suddenly he draws the safety. Now Cooper and the tight ends are in advantageous situations, too. And that is when the offense becomes impossible to defend.

I took the liberty of asking around on this final play after I wrote Decoding Linehan. First, let’s review what I wrote below:

OT – 2:00 – 3rd and 7

The final play. 3rd and 7. The Eagles are going to blitz everyone; it’s Cover-0 with the game on the line. The hot route is the slant to Cooper. I have heard people criticize this throw (because of course), but this is Aikman to Irvin. As a QB with a Cover-0 blitz, there is no decision or read to make once the snap happens. You are throwing to a spot and the receiver either makes you look smart or he doesn’t. People want a double move because Douglas is sitting on the slant. You don’t have time for a double-move. There is a free runner. You snap the ball and get it out to the spot, then trust Cooper to win. He does. Douglas almost saves his own bacon with a desperation swipe, but he only gets a piece and it pops it right into the air. I am not saying the bounce wasn’t fortunate, but I am saying Prescott and Cooper both did their jobs almost perfectly here.

If Cooper loses or stumbles, this could be a pick six. But just like 8 used to trust 88 to make a play, Prescott believed Cooper had earned the right to make him right. And fortune favors the bold.

Again, you can take this with a grain of salt, but I wanted to make sure I asked a few very reputable analysts who I will allow to remain anonymous here for thoughts on the play and to either confirm or deny my take. Here is what I was told by one, in particular:

• Cover-zero blitz so there is no time and the ball must come out quickly.
• Tyron Smith has to take the most dangerous guy and that is the free rusher — you have to turn the furthest guy away from the QB loose which is not what Tyron took.
• Dak goes to the right guy — his best receiver with a favorable coverage situation. No issue with the QB here.
• The biggest issue would be Amari’s route. He has to flatten his slant as much as needed to make sure he gets across the face of the corner or at least force a collision. This is the first rule of slants.
• But the lucky deflection is caught and that is that — all of the issues failed to matter.

I think Austin might have some real usefulness as another weapon and he makes so much more sense roster-wise after the acquisition of Cooper. We hear very little about just how close he is to returning, but his speed makes him a guy you must respect on jet-sweep action and horizontal threats with screens and such. I am very interested in what Austin can provide. Jourdan Lewis has some utility, but nothing close to what Tavon might offer. I would also not rule out a reprisal in 2019 at the right price.

On the topics of the red zone and Rico Gathers, here are a few emails with somewhat similar ideas from Bryce and Chris:

And….

Here is where we are in the Red Zone.  Again, to recap from Decoding Linehan:

• The Cowboys’ red-zone TD efficiency is a real issue. They are 30th in this category. I have been told this is also Linehan and Prescott’s fault, but again, I am going to say I disagree a bit. The Cowboys went two years with both of them at the helm and they had the second-best TD conversion rate in the NFL. They are now 30th. Why? The two most common targets in the red zone were Dez Bryant and Jason Witten and neither was replaced initially. We can argue that as good as Cooper is, he might not be the same red-zone target Bryant was. With that…
• Their goal-to-go efficiency is even worse. A first-and-goal used to mean touchdowns were coming. Now, there is no team in the NFL that has converted fewer touchdowns out of first-and-goal as the Cowboys. This is very, very bad. No Witten, no Dez, and apparently not much of a clue on what to do about it. These two — which of course, are closely related — must improve quickly down the stretch. This will likely be one of the key personnel issues they tackle this offseason.

As we sit here on Friday, I think I did let Linehan off a bit easy. I think Prescott has strengths and weaknesses, and this is where you wish his strength was the back shoulder throw that Romo hit Dez on so often. It seems to be one of the few uncoverable options in today’s red-zone playbooks. But, that doesn’t seem to be an option here.

Here is my issue. Let’s take a look at all the Cowboys snaps this season inside the opponents’ 10 to see about this goal-to-go issue:

As you can see, the Cowboys have run 59 plays from inside the 10. Among those are 31 runs and 28 passes — for 52.5% run (the ninth-most runs). In 59 plays, they are averaging just 0.76 yards per snap which sits at 32nd in a 32-team league. They also have a 37.3 success rate, which stands at… 32nd. How about that.

Even worse, they run most of their offense out of Shotgun 11 and their numbers there are even worse — 0.34 yards per snap on 35 plays. That is about 12 inches a snap. Dak could fall forward and do better than that. It is clear that the zone read with the give to Zeke, the keeper to Dak, or the backside slant to Beasley is just not what it was when the NFL wasn’t ready for it in 2016. Defenses have seen it, and it is no big deal.

You might be asking, is this better since the bye week when Amari Cooper fixed so much? No. The Cowboys have actually regressed in the red zone. In 24 snaps inside the 10 since Week 9, they are actually losing about a half-yard per snap with plenty of sacks.

I could give you a bunch of possible solutions, such as more multiple-TE looks, using Gathers and Jarwin to indicate a run is coming and execute play-action plays instead. But more than anything, I would just say this — Scott Linehan’s job performance is about this very issue. The offensive coordinator must sort it out quickly. This is simply unacceptable and it is actually getting worse. As much as the Dallas offense is rebounding, this could cost them everything. So if people are asking if my opinion on his job security has changed drastically since the trade, this would be the item I point to most when I express my desire for a new offensive mastermind in 2019. He might still fix it, but for now, I am still ready for change because of this very poor job converting good drives into scores.

Nick is absolutely right. I got this wrong and I wanted to show you the two plays he is talking about. I identified Woods as a robber, but that would mean he is basically a rover who is free to head downhill with no man-coverage responsibilities. Watch both plays and you will see that he is absolutely assigned to Sproles, but then the running back stays in to block and that converts Woods to a rover.

This is a cover-2 shell, and then Woods heads downhill to account for Sproles. This is dangerous, of course, because Sproles is so quick that starting that far from him at the snap is a big ask. Further, you are sprinting to him and then have no ability to change angles to stay with him if he does go on a wheel route or something vertical.

Same here. The Cowboys run a cover 2-shell and then when Sproles stays in, you can rally back to their action in the secondary. Good job by Nick. I should have caught that and I am glad he pointed it out.

Shanker, you are absolutely right.  I am not a big fan of the way the Cowboys invest in their defensive tackles. I definitely wanted Fletcher Cox in 2012 and Aaron Donald in 2014, and just overall love looking for defensive tackles in every draft — even Vita Vea and friends in 2018. The Cowboys, however, avoid spending any draft assets on defensive tackles, seemingly because Rod Marinelli is sure he can find them on the waiver wire for free. To his credit, he does a nice job of figuring it out in most years.

This year, the best find has been Antwaun Woods. Woods has absolutely been their best interior run defender at the 1-tech and has been dynamite this year. He also provides a pretty nice pass rush in early down situations. The Cowboys also had Datone Jones doing so well before he went to injured reserve, leading them to scramble again. That was where Daniel Ross and Caraun Reid jumped in with their own opportunities.

Against the pass, we have seen fantastic work from Tyrone Crawford and Maliek Collins. We expected a deep rotation of pass rushers this year, but it really has only been DeMarcus Lawrence and Randy Gregory outside with Crawford and Collins inside.  Both Gregory and Collins have missed a few games, but since Collins returned he has become one of the team’s best rushers and has improved each week. I’m very excited about his work.

I expected David Irving and Taco Charlton to both be productive this season and the fact is that neither has done much of anything with one sack apiece. Let’s be honest, if you had known Anthony Brown would have as many sacks as Irving and Charlton combined, you would fear a horrible season has transpired. But the Cowboys have made their front a strength — even if the depth has not come through as we first hoped.

(Photo by Brett Carlsen/Getty Images)