Part of a continuing series examining the Power 5 and top Group of 5 teams for the 2019 college football season.
At some point, Tom Herman recognized he was sort of talking out of both sides of his mouth.
To motivate his 2018 Texas team, he’d tell his guys nobody was giving them a shot. Go prove everyone wrong, he’d say. And he would also urge them to totally tune out what everyone was saying about them.
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Which is, you know, pretty contradictory. He was asking them to block out the noise and care about it at the same time.
“So our mantra this year will continue to be, instead of ‘Prove them wrong,’ we’ve got signs everywhere that say ‘Prove us right,’” Herman said.
That does make more sense. And in this program, it’s probably wise to strategize on how to handle all the noise. The talk about Texas football right now is as positive as it’s been in almost a decade. When you win 10 games, play for a Big 12 title and knock off No. 5 Georgia in the Sugar Bowl, you get people believing again.
Perception sure does flip fast, as the Longhorns learned last year. In the opener, they found themselves trudging off a rain-soaked field after inexplicably losing to Maryland. And in the finale, they hoisted a New Year’s Six bowl trophy, confetti and streamers rained down, and quarterback Sam Ehlinger boasted: “Longhorn Nation, we’re baaaaack!”
Herman responded to that bold and boisterous declaration with folded arms and a less-than-thrilled smile. The head coach’s message during this hype-heavy offseason: All that matters is what’s believed inside their building. But internally, the confidence is real.
The Longhorns have a proven difference-maker at quarterback. They haven’t had that in a long time. They have an increasingly impressive amount of offensive firepower. They have much-needed coaching stability. They have proof that their culture of toughness can win big. They have several question marks, too. But entering Year 3 under Herman, they might have what it takes to win the conference.
Biggest on-field question
When Herman is asked just how much hype his team deserves this offseason and what he considers reasonable expectations, he gets right to the point.
“If we can play defense somewhat closely to the way we played it the last couple years,” Herman said, “I think we’ve got a chance to compete for the conference again.”
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He’s trying to replace eight senior starters who combined for 233 career starts. Texas lost captains, playmakers and future pros on defense. And it certainly showed in spring practice with all the big plays their inexperienced replacements allowed.
With safeties Brandon Jones and Caden Sterns sidelined during spring ball, the Longhorns had practically a brand new defensive lineup that included just one player who has started more than 10 games. The No. 1 defense to begin their April 13 spring game featured five sophomores and two redshirt freshmen on the field.
The vocal leadership of that group is a concern Herman will be watching closely. Senior defensive end Malcolm Roach knows it’s his turn. Defensive coordinator Todd Orlando said he’s frequently thanked Roach this spring for calling out teammates who are loafing or not being physical in practice. Texas needs guys like Roach to be tone-setters.
“It’s a challenge at first, being the guy that has to come in and talk all the time,” Roach said. “But it’s a role I embrace.”
Roach, Jones and Sterns have earned that kind of respect. Safety Chris Brown was a vocal and energetic presence in spring ball, but he also missed time because of an injury.
“It’s hard to lead when you’re on the sideline,” Herman said. “So everything’s been kind of going through Malcolm right now, which … I mean, who else is it gonna be?”
The fact that Texas’ returning defenders have a combined 72 career starts among them is alarming, but it’s not like the Longhorns are utterly depleted in the talent department. When their incoming freshmen get on campus in the summer, the defense will have 22 players who were four-stars or better as recruits. And most of them are still quite young.
Through their struggles this spring, Orlando has tried to keep that lack of maturity in perspective. There’s a fine line, he says, between being demanding and a little bit patient. He cites redshirt freshman Ayodele Adeoye as a fine example of the process this offseason. Texas needs Adeoye to play a significant role at inside linebacker this fall, but it is just starting to take off his training wheels. He and the younger defenders will get it right in more controlled practice settings, when coaches are out there to correct them, but the live reps they get in scrimmages are the true test of progress.
“When you put them on the field by themselves,” Orlando asks, “can they do it consistently?”
There’s still plenty of time to get there. Orlando has things he’s determined to fix, too, no matter who’s on the field. As he studied the Longhorns’ 2018 tape, he scrutinized their play in end-of-game situations and on third downs. Texas played in 10 games decided by one-score margins last season, and Orlando feels he needs better calls for last-minute drives.
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And on third-down conversions, Orlando has never in his 14 years as a coordinator had a defense perform as poorly as last year’s squad did. Texas dropped from No. 3 in FBS in 2017 all the way to No. 109, failing to get stops on 44.3 percent of third downs. In Big 12 play, it was 48 percent. Orlando’s career average as a coordinator before last season: 34.4 percent.
“We’ve been up and down in terms of the looks and disguises we’re doing,” he said, “and finding out what exactly the issue is.”
Herman knows the implications of getting this group playing at a high level. A stat he loves to bring up: In the BCS and College Football Playoff eras, every national champion has finished with a top-25 defense except Cam Newton’s 2010 Auburn team. Texas is not trying to be the exception to the rule. It intends to win at the highest level by playing defense at the highest level. That’s the standard this defense must find a way to meet.
Depth chart analysis
Quarterbacks: What made Sam Ehlinger great as a sophomore, beyond his fiery leadership, was his ability to play clean. He finished with just six turnovers through 14 games to go with his 41 total touchdowns. He’s rushed for 1,157 yards on 4.8 yards per carry over two seasons when sacks are excluded. He’s been money as a runner on third-and-short and fourth-and-short, converting first downs on 20 of 28 attempts last season. Offensive coordinator Tim Beck says the next step in Ehlinger’s mastery of Texas’ offense is how he makes adjustments to manipulate defenses, and coaches are pushing him to get the ball out quicker.
Behind him, Casey Thompson is the clear No. 2. The redshirt freshman showed off his wheels in Texas’ spring game and pairs good instincts with good ball placement on his throws. He’s an intriguing prospect. True freshman Roschon Johnson, the top QB recruit in Texas for 2019, enrolled early and still has a ton of learning to do, but Beck is confident he’s going to become “a really good player for us.”
Running backs: The coaching staff loves what they have in Keaontay Ingram and Jordan Whittington. Ingram showed big potential as a freshman while rushing for 708 yards and scoring five TDs. “He’s bigger and stronger and faster, and it shows,” Beck said. “He’s playing with a lot more confidence.” Whittington was the star of spring ball, an early enrollee who signed to play receiver but begins his career in the backfield. He immediately established himself as one of the Longhorns’ most exciting weapons. The staff can split him out, too, and will get him the ball lots of different ways.
“I’m amazed at how well he took to that position,” Herman said, “and just his ability to, having never played that position, go in there and do some of the things he’s done throughout the course of the spring.”
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Behind them, Kirk Johnson is finally staying healthy after injuries cost him two seasons. He gives the Longhorns another speedy option. There’s also Daniel Young, a tough back who’s logged more than 120 carries in two seasons. Herman remains hopeful that signee Derrian Brown, who suffered a stroke in January had had to have a blood clot removed from his brain, could still have a future in football.
Wide receivers/tight ends: Texas has a ton of talent here. Collin Johnson came back for his senior year, and at 6-foot-6 he can be one of the nation’s best wideouts as Ehlinger’s go-to guy outside. Devin Duvernay has always been a burner with big-play ability. Malcolm Epps was a revelation in spring ball and gives the Longhorns another physical, 6-6 target. The rest of his fellow second-year receivers — Brennan Eagles, Joshua Moore and Al’Vonte Woodard — got lots of reps this spring.
The challenge is replacing Lil’Jordan Humphrey’s production at “H” receiver. Moore brings a lot of speed to that spot but needs to bulk up. Jordan Pouncey can play there, too, and incoming freshman Jake Smith will be dangerous in the slot. There’s more speed on the way, too, with freshmen Marcus Washington and Kennedy Lewis. They have more than enough talent to withstand the abrupt departure of Bru McCoy.
At tight end, Andrew Beck is not an easy guy to replace. “He was such a dominant force and a dominant leader for us,” Tim Beck said. Junior Cade Brewer did make a lot of plays in spring practices. It’s time for him and Reese Leitao to step up. Jared Wiley looks like he has a lot of potential, and fellow freshman Brayden Liebrock arrives in the summer.
Offensive line: Herb Hand worked wonders with this group in 2018. Now he needs to replace three starters. Samuel Cosmi has All-Big 12 potential and is making the move to left tackle. Center Zach Shackelford is one of the Longhorns’ best leaders and has made a team-high 27 career starts. Derek Kerstetter can play a number of roles and could be the answer at right tackle. Georgia Tech grad transfer Parker Braun will enroll in the summer and should take one of the starting guard spots. And that likely leaves redshirt freshman Junior Angilau and junior Denzel Okafor competing for the other vacant guard spot.
Hand likes to cross-train his linemen and will tinker with lineups until he gets his five best linemen on the field together. The second-team line depth is one of the big areas of concern. Texas is asking a lot of unproven linemen to take a big step forward this offseason. “This offense has a very high ceiling when we execute,” Shackelford said.
Defensive line: Malcolm Roach is back to being a consistent force as a physical pass rusher after missing five games with a broken foot last season. Orlando loves the progress he’s seeing from junior defensive end Ta’Quon Graham, who’s become one of their strongest players. The three guys behind them — Jacoby Jones, Moro Ojomo and Marqez Bimage — can develop into quality pass rushers. At the nose tackle spot, the battle between the more experienced Gerald Wilbon and the more explosive Keondre Coburn is ongoing. They’re essentially co-starters in Orlando’s eyes, and they’ll both play 30 to 35 snaps a game.
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Linebackers: It’s hard not to call this Texas’ most concerning position group. It’s also hard not to bet on Orlando figuring it out. Jeffrey McCulloch needs to have a big senior year. His experience playing each linebacker spot is an advantage this spring. “He’s a guy that you could rely on making checks in that defense,” Roach said. “He’s done a great job of leading those young linebackers, because they’re very, very young now.”
Joseph Ossai came on strong late in his freshman year and looks like another dude they can depend on. Inside linebackers Ayodele Adeoye, Caleb Johnson and Marcus Tillman need to do a lot of developing this summer. Touted freshman De’Gabriel Floyd will miss the season after being diagnosed with spinal stenosis, but Texas will add two more newcomers this summer in junior college transfer Juwan Mitchell and freshman David Gbenda.
Defensive backs: The safety spot is among the strongest, that’s for sure. Brandon Jones played up to his big-time potential as a junior, and Caden Sterns was the Big 12’s Defensive Freshman of the Year. Having Jones (ankle) and Sterns (knee) out for spring ball meant Chris Brown and Montrell Estell got a ton of reps in the back end. Tyler Owens and Chris Adimora will make this group even better when they enroll.
The Longhorns are going to lean on three true sophomores at cornerback this fall, which will come with ups and downs playing in the Big 12. Anthony Cook and Jalen Green have grown up fast and appear ready for that responsibility. D’Shawn Jamison, who played receiver/returner last year, moved back to corner and has impressed the staff with his footwork and ball skills. Kobe Boyce and Kenyatta Watson need to be ready to play, too.
At nickel, B.J. Foster and Josh Thompson are the clear frontrunners. Orlando needs to find ways to keep Foster on the field — he’s clearly one of their best 11 players — and they need to find a role for fellow thumper DeMarvion Overshown. “Those guys make a lot of big hits,” Roach said. “It’s like watching a highlight tape when they’re back there.”
Special teams: Cameron Dicker had great debut season, making 18 of his 25 field goal attempts. Herman said he’s seen improvement from punter Ryan Bujcevski this spring. Both are sophomores and ought to become four-year starters. There’s no shortage of options in the return game including Jamison, Jones, Duvernay and several freshmen.
How the Longhorns have recruited from 2016-2019
Using 247Sports’ Composite rankings, here is how Texas’ recruiting classes have fared nationally and within the Big 12 over the past four years:
Texas’ signing of No. 3-ranked recruiting classes in back-to-back years helps give this staff the raw materials needed to contend for championships. Herman is proud of those results and the caliber of evaluations they’ve done to find and sign those players.
They’ll always aim to build the program on in-state players, but the staff did an impressive job of going West and raiding California and Arizona for blue-chip talent in 2019. Even though McCoy left after the spring, landing him not only moved Texas’ class ahead of rivals Texas A&M and Oklahoma in the 247Sports Composite rankings but also made receivers coach Drew Mehringer the National Recruiter of the Year according to both 247Sports and Rivals.com.
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This staff is serious about being selective, too. They made 138 offers for the 2019 class, which ranked sixth-fewest among Power 5 programs, and have made fewer than 100 for the 2020 class. Herman borrows a Chris Petersen term — “OKGs” (Our Kind of Guys) — to describe what he’s looking for in the evaluation process. His hope is they’re doing more research on their prospects than anybody else. This can make them slower to offer a kid than others, and that’s how the head coach likes it.
“When we say the word offer, that guy better be able to say yes before we get to the ‘-er’ of offer out of our mouth,” Herman said. “If he does say yes, we better be doing cartwheels and handsprings and all that stuff.”
After their Red River Rivalry victory last October against Kyler Murray, Marquise Brown and the Sooners’ insanely fast offense, Herman publicly said he wanted more speed like his rival has and had a long talk with his recruiting department about going out and finding those guys. “We’re not elite fast on offense right now,” he said at the time. He feels Texas made progress on that with the skill talent it signed in the 2019 class.
As for their other recruiting rival, Texas A&M won some key in-state battles in 2019 and still has a lot of momentum. The Longhorns signed four of the top 25 recruits in the state in the last cycle, with the two highest-rated players — Kenyon Green and DeMarvin Leal — siding with the Aggies. Texas just needs to keep winning to contend with that momentum. Winning is what gives you a chance to sign more truly elite kids like McCoy and Whittington.
Impact of coaching changes
Herman goes into Year 3 at Texas having not lost any assistant coaches, which is quite a feat. And there are a lot of benefits to that. He’s worked with most of the members of his staff for five or more years. He’s going into his 10th year working with strength coach Yancy McKnight. Texas’ assistants get to continue building upon their progress this offseason instead of starting over.
“To have the consistency is so helpful for everybody,” Ehlinger said. “Young guys who’ve been here a year who struggled with the playbook, now the consistency of running the same routes over and over and having the same plays, it’s incredible. Because now guys can really use their talents and take their game to the next level because it’s not about trying to understand the offense or trying to learn the offense.”
Herman has made an effort to boost his support staff this offseason. Former North Carolina head coach Larry Fedora joined the staff as an analyst along with former Kansas State offensive coordinator Andre Coleman, former Houston defensive backs coach Paul Williams and Fedora’s son Dillon.
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Herman was a bit torn on this move, because he has liked to use those analyst roles to help young coaches get their foot in the door of the business. But all the experience and knowledge these new hires have brought to the office has been a big plus, and they’ll be a big help for game planning and advance scouting during the season. Herman has particularly enjoyed bouncing ideas off Larry Fedora, who offers 11 years of head coaching experience.
Herman knows, too, how much elite programs like Alabama have benefitted from stockpiling veteran coaches in off-the-field roles.
“The one thing, talking to Coach (Nick) Saban, is some of those guys are guys that are in the wings for when he does lose assistants,” Herman said. “And that way, when promoting from within, there’s a lot less of that on-boarding you have to go through.”
Schedule analysis
The date everybody’s circling on the calendar is Sept. 7. That’s when LSU comes to town for what should be one of college football’s premier non-conference games of 2019. We’ll find out in Week 2 whether Texas’ offensive growth is for real, and there hasn’t been a top-10 showdown at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium since the 2008 season.
Texas has embraced playing big-time home-and-home series before Big 12 play, facing USC and Notre Dame in recent years with more huge battles (Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan, Georgia) coming in the future. Those non-conference games always help set the bar for expectations, and beating USC 37-14 at home last season brought a jolt of confidence that helped fuel a six-game win streak. Granted, that USC team ended up going 5-7. This LSU squad promises to be much more challenging.
All in all, Texas has a remarkably balanced schedule. The idle weeks are nicely spaced out, coming at the end of September and the end of October, and there are essentially two tough games every month. They haven’t won in Fort Worth since 2013, and a road trip to Ames in mid-November won’t be easy. But the Longhorns do get to play 10 of their 12 games inside the state of Texas.
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Final assessment
When Tim Beck describes the difference in Texas’ offensive playmaking this spring, he cites what feels like a fitting example of where the program is heading.
“It’s handing the ball off on a power play and Keaontay breaks a tackle and goes the distance,” Beck said. “Maybe, in our first year, we didn’t break the tackle. Maybe last year, we broke it but we had an 8-yard gain. Now it’s 40 yards.”
Plays like those show that the deficiencies are starting to become strengths. They’re also reflective of where Orlando’s defense is, still very much a work in progress exiting spring ball. But they know they’re developing in the right direction. The culture is in the bloodstream now, and Herman can see it in their training.
“I love these guys,” Herman said. “They work really hard. Great demeanor. They don’t blink when you tell them to do something that’s really difficult or painful or inconvenient. They just do it. Because that’s the way we do things around here.”
The pieces are there to go out and achieve something really difficult in 2019. Given how many key players are still just sophomores, a College Football Playoff run might still be a year away. But after what they proved in 2018, they’re clearly getting closer.
(Top photo of Sam Ehlinger: Jonathan Bachman / Getty Images)
