As spring football practice comes to a conclusion and the NFL Draft finally takes shape this weekend, it’s natural to look ahead for what comes next. The topics usually include kickoff times, predictions and legacies. All three are popular topics for this week’s Iowa Mailbag.
Where should Iowa be predicted to finish in the West this year and then what bowl game would that land us?
Zach P.
Advertisement
The Big Ten West might be the most competitive division in college football this year. Entering late-spring workouts, six different teams have a legitimate shot at winning it. In league play, Wisconsin faces the most difficult crossover opponents, Iowa and Purdue have the most challenging road schedules, Nebraska faces a tough home slate. Minnesota and Northwestern have more manageable schedules across the board but also have tough stretches.
Iowa garnered a championship profile from last year, save for the running game and punting, and lost four underclassmen to the draft, but boasts among the nation’s best tackle and defensive end tandems. When you add in three-year starting quarterback Nate Stanley with 52 career touchdown passes, I think Iowa is the favorite. Nebraska has the most explosive offense, but its defense is lacking. Wisconsin loses four starting offensive linemen and the heart of its defense in linebackers T.J. Edwards and Ryan Connolly plus has a major question mark at quarterback until Graham Mertz officially steps in. Minnesota grew plenty last year, which culminated in beatdowns of Wisconsin and Purdue, but can the Gophers take another step? Purdue loses a ton on offense (but returns explosive receiver Rondale Moore), as does Northwestern. The Boilermakers bring back nine starters on the nation’s 113th-ranked defense, while the Wildcats return six starters from a very good unit.
If Iowa should earn a Big Ten West title (but, say, loses the title game), that puts the Hawkeyes in contention for a New Year’s Six appearance in either the Orange or Cotton bowls. The next likely spots are the Citrus and Holiday bowls. If Iowa doesn’t win the West Division but finishes with nine or 10 wins, then either the Citrus or Holiday bowls are possibilities. Anything lower than eight wins brings the San Francisco-based Redbox Bowl into the discussion.
Any predictions for primetime games this season? Any chance at (ESPN College) GameDay? Also, is there a date when they announce some of the primetime games for earlier in the season?
Luke S.
Projecting Big Ten primetime games is not as easy as it was a decade ago. Before Nebraska, Maryland and Rutgers joined the Big Ten, the 3:30 p.m. ET/2:30 p.m. CT game was considered the gold standard. Only one game aired in that time slot while the rest were relegated to noon ET/11 a.m. CT, except for a handful of high-profile primetime games announced by late April.
Advertisement
With 14 Big Ten programs and a television package that includes both the FOX and ESPN family of networks plus BTN, everything related to kickoff times has changed. Multiple games air at staggered times mid-afternoon and in primetime. A primetime kickoff doesn’t necessarily mean it’s the best game on the schedule. Remember, Northern Iowa at Iowa was a primetime game last September.
As for a time table, the Big Ten announced times for the first three game weekends, homecoming games and a handful of other games such as Iowa-Nebraska’s Black Friday clash and Ohio State-Michigan on May 31 last year. Primetime games now can be scheduled 12 days from kickoff. I expect that will be the case through the end of the current television contract, which expires in 2023.
I’ll make a few predictions sure to be wrong by this fall. First, the ones that I expect will be announced in late May (all times Central).
Aug. 31 – vs. Miami (Ohio), 11 a.m. This game can air just about anytime and certainly not because of its prominence.
Sept. 7 – vs. Rutgers, 6 p.m. It’s the first time Rutgers comes to Iowa City, and it’s the only Big Ten game that day. I could see BTN wanting to play up that storyline.
Sept. 14 – at Iowa State, 7 p.m. This has a chance to be the Cy-Hawk’s most relevant matchup, perhaps ever. Both teams won at least eight games last year and should be ranked for their meeting. It’s a guaranteed sellout with a raucous crowd in a rivalry game. ESPN’s College GameDay has never appeared in Ames, and I only can imagine the atmosphere. The last time GameDay appeared in Iowa City was in 2006, and there were more than 10,000 people in attendance. If GameDay was held at Jack Trice Stadium, that number climbs to at least 15,000.
Oct. 5 – at Michigan, 3 p.m. The last two Wolverines’ homecoming games have kicked off early after five straight mid-afternoon starts. With this matchup pitting two potentially ranked teams, it probably shifts to Fox mid-afternoon, while Michigan State at Ohio State probably airs at night.
Advertisement
Oct. 19 – vs. Purdue, 11 a.m. It’s Iowa’s homecoming, and campus administrators prefer an early kickoff.
Oct. 26 – at Northwestern, 11 a.m. It’s Northwestern’s homecoming, which also tends to kick off early.
Nov. 29 – at Nebraska, 3 p.m. Despite head-to-head Big 12 competition, last year’s Iowa-Nebraska game kicked off early and delivered the sixth-highest rating of any game on last season’s final weekend, according to Sports Media Watch. The border feud aired in the late-afternoon viewing window the three previous seasons, and it should return there. Considering Nebraska’s profile is climbing, this game could determine the Big Ten West Division champion. It’s also the final Black Friday matchup between the teams until 2022.
As for the five other Iowa games, these kickoffs are less predictable. A game 10 years ago you’d stamp in the 11 a.m. window now regularly moves to 2:30 p.m. Last year, the Iowa-Illinois game kicked off at 2:30 p.m. (a 63-0 Hawkeyes win). Let’s give it a shot, but we’re bound to be wrong.
Sept. 28 – vs. Middle Tennessee State, 11 a.m. On a loaded Big Ten football weekend, this one gets shoehorned wherever it fits.
Oct. 12 – vs. Penn State, 7 p.m. Five of the last eight meetings between these two aired at night, and the other three had late-afternoon starts. This is the Hawkeyes’ marquee home game, and I could imagine a striped Kinnick Stadium. But the league and networks won’t set the kickoff time until 12 days in advance.
Nov. 9 – at Wisconsin, 7 p.m. This long-standing rivalry easily is the Big Ten’s highest-profile game on the slate. The league rarely schedules primetime games beyond November’s second weekend without permission from both schools, so it’s likely Iowa-Wisconsin will provide the final night atmosphere for the season.
Nov. 16 – Minnesota, 11 a.m. This series generally punches a network or time slot above its weight class because of the postgame dash for the iconic Floyd of Rosedale trophy. With Wisconsin-Nebraska and Michigan-Michigan State on the docket, this one heads for a likely early start time.
Advertisement
Nov. 23 – Illinois, 2:30 p.m. On paper, it’s the least attractive Big Ten game that weekend. It could provide BTN with filler opposite Ohio State-Penn State.
Off weeks: Sept. 21, Nov. 2
Is it just me or does Nate Stanley have a chance to cement himself as the greatest passer in Iowa history this coming season? He already has 52 touchdown passes for his career, the most over a two-year period in Iowa football history.
Joe K.
Quarterback Nate Stanley certainly can enter the conversation if his 2019 statistics measure up to his 2018 numbers. If he duplicates what he did last year (26 touchdowns, 2,852 yards), then he will finish his career with 78 touchdowns and 8,203 yards to finish first and third, respectively, in Iowa annals.
To remain more than an offhand mention, however, Stanley needs to provide the Hawkeyes with some bling. Any Iowa quarterback with a case for the label “greatest” must engineer some level of championship – division or conference. Chuck Long, Randy Duncan, Brad Banks, Drew Tate, Kenny Ploen, Matt Rodgers and C.J. Beathard all have a title on their resume, while Ricky Stanzi came close.
Stanley’s 59.3 competition percentage last year was a factor in Iowa not collecting a Big Ten West Division title. He has produced amazing games, like his six touchdowns at Indiana last year or his five passing scores against Ohio State and Iowa State in 2017. Stanley also has struggled mightily in other outings, like last year at Penn State.
If Stanley does elevate his legacy and that of his teammates, he’ll reverse the strange trend of Ferentz quarterbacks faltering from throughout their careers. Tate slipped from 10 wins in 2004 to six in 2006. Stanzi won 11 games in 2009 and eight in 2010. Beathard earned 12 victories in 2015 and then eight a year later. Most of those reasons were beyond the quarterback’s control, but it’s a statistic fans regularly bring up if a senior quarterback and his team fail to live up to expectations.
Pitt, Notre Dame, Iowa State, Nebraska, and Marquette all were mentioned as replacements for the University of Chicago when it left the Big Ten in 1946. Not really a question, but I’d love to hear some pure speculation about how things could’ve turned out differently with any of those schools joining the Big Ten in the late ‘40s.
Jarrod S.
Michigan State was certified as the Big Ten’s 10th squad on May 21, 1949. That was the end of a difficult series of events that nearly resulted in Pittsburgh’s entry.
Chicago left the Big Ten in 1946, and both schools applied for membership. By December 1948, it appeared a showdown was likely between the Spartans and Panthers. For three days, officials from the other nine schools argued over which university was the better fit. The Panthers and Spartans were the only two schools to officially apply but according to the Detroit Free Press, “there was an underlying fear” that Pitt would recruit unethically compared with its league brethren. Michigan State became the prime candidate when it signed an NCAA purity code and Minnesota President Dr. Louis Morrill became an outspoken advocate for the Spartans during deliberations.
Advertisement
Minnesota, Ohio State and Purdue all were in favor of the Spartans’ entry, while Michigan, Indiana, Northwestern and Illinois were against Michigan State. Wisconsin swung around toward Michigan State, while Iowa provided the final affirmative in 5-4 vote, as reported by The Cedar Rapids Gazette. The official tally was then made unanimous.
After a rugged certification process, Michigan State officially became the 10th member by vote five months later. The league then officially changed its name from Western Conference to Big Ten. A few debates lingered over football schedules, which is why the Spartans participated in other Big Ten sports but not football until 1953. Pittsburgh’s application was tabled, rather than rejected.
Obviously, Notre Dame is the most recognizable program on the list and would have made for a great Big Ten member. Had the Irish joined the Big Ten in 1999, perhaps the entire realignment phase of 2009-2014 goes away. The Hawkeyes initially were in favor of Nebraska joining the Big Ten in the 1940s, but that never came close to happening. Iowa officials enthusiastically supported the Cornhuskers’ entry in 2011. Considering the Hawkeyes and Cyclones were in their 43-year period of not playing one another, there was no way Iowa would agree to Iowa State joining the Big Ten in the 1940s.
Given the returning personnel on offense, can you see Iowa’s passing offense adjusting to the talent level and going WR heavy instead of TE focused? Or will Tight End U continue to find a way to pass there?
As for selling beer at Kinnick, I don’t really see a need for it. Unless the running game averages less than four yards a carry again.
Michael G.
I do see the Hawkeyes playing regularly with more receivers, similar to its 2017 personnel groupings. That season, Iowa used two or more tight ends on 48.5 percent of its snaps. Last year, that number shifted to 61.6 percent. Conversely, the Hawkeyes used three-receiver sets on 31.4 percent of its 2017 plays and only 22 percent last season. Of course, when a team has two first-round NFL Draft picks at tight end, get them on the field as often as possible. Either tight end was a better option than any receiver last year. In fact, Iowa should have played with two tight ends on 80 percent of its offensive snaps.
As for this year, the strength shifts to receiver. Iowa has a pair of good tight ends in Shaun Beyer and Nate Wieting, but neither has shown the skill set of Noah Fant and T.J. Hockenson. So expect more 11 personnel (three receivers) on passing downs than 12 personnel (two tight ends, two receivers) this season.
Beer eventually will come to the Kinnick Stadium grandstands, but there’s no real appetite for it right now. Alcohol is served in the luxury suites, which will grow significantly in the north end zone. At some point, Iowa administrators will bring in the kegs and make an extra $1 million every fall. Then the question becomes, who gains pouring rights? I bet Iowa athletics partners with a domestic brand (Budweiser or Miller) and a local brewery (Millstream, Big Grove, Toppling Goliath).
Here’s an interesting question, so Kinnick Stadium will most likely be the home for Iowa football for as long as college football exists, but when do you believe Iowa basketball will leave and build a new arena? Clearly this isn’t close in time, but given some of the lackluster features of Carver, it’s bound to eventually happen. Do you see 20 years? 50 years? Or even never?
Jesse L.
I do think Carver-Hawkeye Arena gets a major renovation or a new arena is built within 20 years. At times, the atmosphere is outstanding. Other times, it’s as stale as a year-old Cheeto. The seats are too far from the floor, and the amenities are so far from the playing court that people decline to buy concessions or use the restroom because of the 60 or so steps to the top. That must get rectified or Carver will get wreck-tified.
(Top photo of Nate Stanley by Jeffrey Becker / USA TODAY Sports)
