This story is from December 12, 2018

King Congress of north shakes up Tamil Nadu politics

King Congress of north shakes up Tamil Nadu politics
DMK president M K Stalin

If politics is about timing and momentum, the DMK seems to have got it right this time. While DMK president M K Stalin’s visit to Delhi, where he met Sonia and Rahul Gandhi on Sunday, was timed well, the victory of the Congress — in the assembly elections of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh — is sure to add momentum to the DMK-led alliance in Tamil Nadu.

For a party out of power for close to seven years in the state and five years at the Centre, the resurgence of the Congress in the Hindi heartland should come as a big morale-booster. While the outcome at the nationallevel after the Lok Sabha polls is anybody’s guess, the DMK-Congress combo can now start groundwork on a confident note, as they did in 2004.
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The DMK may have to brace for immense pressure from other parties, who will now be much more open to be part of this alliance. The anti-establishment mood both in the state and at the Centre could only push others towards this alliance, which could prove to be a handful for the DMK to handle.
At present, the Congress and the IUML are part of the DMK alliance, as confirmed by DMK treasurer S Duraimurugan recently. However, friendly parties such as the MDMK, the VCK and the two Communist parties will now push more vigorously to be taken in with a confirmed seat allocation.

Among the parties outside this network, the PMK could emerge as a possible suitor. Even though the strong showing in the Hindi heartland during this round of assembly elections may not guarantee the Congress the top spot after the Lok Sabha polls, its victory in three states has at least dented the invincibility of Narendra Modi and the BJP. A party like the PMK could easily sense the direction of the wind and want to latch on to the opportunity, as it did in the late 1990s and in 2004.
“This victory has given confidence to the Congress and its alliance partners. This will now reflect in the rest of the country including Tamil Nadu, where we already have a strong alliance with the DMK. While there is a possibility of more parties joining this alliance, with the change in the mood we will also have a problem of plenty. But, parties which want to join should come without any conditions. At the same time, the existing alliance is strong enough to win all 40 seats in Tamil Nadu,” says TNCC president S Thirunavukkarasar.
There is also the possibility that the Congress, after its resurgence in the Hindi heartland, could ask for more seats and thereby create tension in the alliance. While this could put pressure on the hopes of the MDMK and the VCK of getting more seats, it could also be an opportunity for Stalin to make a ‘take it or leave it’ offer to the smaller allies.
“The most important message from these elections is that the BJP could be shackled in its ideological cradle and that the Congress is the natural national alternative to Modi and the BJP. Our alliance with the DMK has been consolidated. The Congress can gain from the DMK’s organizational presence and the latter could gain from the national party’s momentum. Since this is going to be parliamentary elections, the script is not complete without the Congress,” says senior Congress leader Peter Alphonse. “While the DMK is keen to contest more seats, we in the Congress hope for our reasonable share. That makes it more than 30 with just the two of us. We cannot avoid the Communists and there are others already in. Where is the room to offer seats to more parties, which may now want to join in,” he wondered.
Political analysts too feel that more parties will haggle for a place in the DMK-led alliance as the Congress victory has removed the stigma that it is a liability in an alliance. “The presence of the Congress in the north cannot be used as a yardstick for its share of seats here in Tamil Nadu. It should expect a reasonable number of seats, which the DMK too can reciprocate in the interest of the grand alliance,” explained analyst M Kasinathan.
Despite momentum on its side, finalizing alliance partners and seats needs to be a close calculation for the DMK in the run up to the 2019 polls.
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