Monsoon’s arrival in Maharashtra only by June 25

PUNE: Monsoon currents might have reached parts of Maharashtra, but the India Meteorological Department (IMD) cannot declare an onset until there is a smooth distribution of rainfall over land areas and until the monsoon covers parts of peninsular India.
The wind pattern over parts of southern Maharashtra has already changed to westerly, with rainfall in several locations and heavy showers in isolated areas.But the monsoon appears to be weak in the south, as its progress has slowed down due to weak rainfall activity over Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. As a result, the progress of the northern limit of monsoon has been hampered towards the eastern coast, while the conditions are favourable towards the west coast.

IMD officials, however, said the monsoon could strengthen in the next three or four days and cover all of Maharashtra by June 24 — June 25 at the latest — around 12 days later than the normal onset date.
Monsoon normally covers most of Maharashtra by around June 12. Anupam Kashyapi, head of weather, IMD-Pune, told TOI that there was no progress in the monsoon on Saturday, with its northern limit still over Mangalore, Mysore, Salem, Cuddalore, Agartala, Lumding, and Passighat.
“Currently, though conditions seem favourable over parts of south Maharashtra, Konkan and Goa, we cannot declare an onset. This region has been getting good rainfall due to the wind pattern (here becoming westerly) and the presence of an offshore trough, resulting in continuous rains in the windward side of the Sahyadri range. But the monsoon has been weak over parts of the south peninsular India, including south interior Karnataka, north interior Karnataka, Rayalaseema and Coastal Andhra (in Andhra Pradesh) and Telangana,” he said.
To maintain the monsoon’s spatial continuity, Kashyapi said, the onset over parts of south Maharashtra and Konkan still cannot be declared, as the monsoon will first have to cover parts of south peninsular India. “Whatever moisture was there over these regions was depleted by the very severe cyclonic storm, Vayu. That is why the monsoon’s advance over parts of Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, and the rest of Tamil Nadu is becoming a problem. So technically, the monsoon’s onset over parts of Maharashtra still cannot be declared, as the monsoon needs to proceed in a uniform manner,” he said.
Kashyapi said that the monsoon vortex is likely to strengthen over the Bay of Bengal in three to four days. “In another two days, the monsoon may further progress over northeast India and may cover most of that region by three to four days. We expect the formation of a low pressure system over the Bay of Bengal in a few days, which will strengthen the Bay of Bengal branch of the monsoon over Coastal Andhra. Thus, going by this, monsoon may enter extreme southern parts of Maharashtra by June 20 at the latest,” said Kashyapi.
This way, the monsoon may cover the whole of Maharashtra, including Pune, by June 25 at the latest. “By then, even Vidarbha and Marathwada will get good spells of rain. However, due to the delayed onset of monsoon over Kerala and Vayu, the cumulative June rainfall for Maharashtra as well as India as a whole may still be below normal,” said Kashyapi.