Gujarat has been one of the country’s most water-stressed states this year, in addition to neighbouring Maharashtra. As on June 6, reservoir levels in Western India (encompassing Gujarat and Maharashtra) are at 11% of live storage capacity, according to the Central Water Commission data. Many rural areas of the state have been struggling with water scarcity.
Both subdivisions in Gujarat experienced deficient pre-monsoon rainfall this year. While Gujarat region was deficient by 79%, Saurashtra, Kutch and Diu got 88% deficient rainfall until May 29, 2019. In the last five years, poor pre-monsoon rains have been the norm, and 2015 was the only year when both these subdivisions got excess rain.
The pre-monsoon season is the period from March 1 to May 31.
From June 1 to June 6, Gujarat got no rain whatsoever (the normal for this period is 9mm). Therefore, there is a total deficit in the first week of the monsoon season. The Indian monsoon officially lasts from June 1 to September 30th every year, so any rain during this period is counted as monsoon rainfall.
Long-term rainfall trends indicate that the monsoon reaches Gujarat around June 12. Last year, i.e. 2018, the monsoon arrived in Gujarat on June 23 according to IMD’s records. Over the last 5 years, the onset date in the state has ranged from June 18-27.
According to The Weather Channel’s monsoon forecast issued on May 31, there is a 70-80% chance of below-normal rainfall in Saurashtra and Kutch in June (the number dips to 80-90% for some southern parts of the region), and 55-70% chance of below-normal rain in central and south Gujarat in June. Estimates suggest that quantitatively, the rainfall in June could be 5-10% deficient compared to the historical average in the state.
The Southwest monsoon gives India 80% of its annual rainfall every year. It is also critical for the country’s economy, since its strength will determine the outcome of kharif (summer) crops sown across India.
This year, the southwest monsoon is expected to enter India through Kerala on Saturday, June 8, according to the India Meteorological Department. We will track its movement and its progress towards Gujarat. Stay tuned to The Weather Channel for rain updates from your city.
