With temperatures currently hovering around 42-44°C— up to 4 degrees above normal, Punjab is eagerly waiting for some cool relief from the Southwest Monsoon.
Long-term rainfall trends indicate that the monsoon reaches Punjab around June 28. Last year, i.e. 2018, the monsoon reached east Punjab on June 27 according to India Meteorological Department’s records. Over the last 4 years, the onset date in the state has ranged from June 24 to July 3.
Punjab received slightly above-normal rain this year during the pre-monsoon season, which is the period from March 1 to May 31. From June 1 to June 7, however, the state has received only 1.7 mm rain against the normal of 4.9 mm, i.e. 66% below-normal rainfall. The Indian monsoon officially lasts from June 1 to September 30th every year, so any rain during this period is counted as monsoon rainfall.
During the monsoon season last year, Punjab received slightly above-normal rainfall. According to The Weather Company’s monsoon forecast issued on May 31, there is up to 80% chance of below-normal rainfall in Punjab this season. Estimates suggest that quantitatively, there could be a rainfall deficiency of 5-10% this month against the historical average.
The Southwest monsoon gives India 80% of its annual rainfall every year. It is also critical for the country’s economy, since its strength will determine the outcome of Kharif (summer) crops sown across India.
According to the IMD, the southwest monsoon has arrived at Kerala on Saturday, June 8 —seven days later than normal date of onset. We will track its movement and its progress across the country. Stay tuned to The Weather Channel for rain updates from your region.
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