Here’s our latest weather outlook for India.
Saturday
The southwest monsoon has further advanced into all of Kerala, southern parts of Karnataka, central parts of Tamil Nadu and most parts of the Bay of Bengal.
A cyclonic circulation and incursion of southwesterly humid winds from the Bay of Bengal have led to instability over northeastern states. Heavy rain and thunderstorms are likely over Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura on Saturday.
Southwesterly humid winds from the Arabian Sea produce heavy rain and thunderstorms along the western coast as well as the western and southern India.
Cyclone Vayu continues to move further westward at a speed of 6 kmph. It is located at about 630 km west-northwest of Mumbai. Vayu is likely to maintain Very Severe Cyclonic Storm intensity until Saturday night. It will weaken into a cyclonic storm by Sunday and into depression by Monday.
The Weather Channel’s forecast shows that Vayu is likely to turn northward and then eastward on Sunday. It is expected to make landfall around northwestern Gujarat on Monday night with an intensity of a Depression. Total rainfall of up to 20 to 30 mm is likely over the coastal area of Kathiawar peninsula in Gujarat. Also, wind gusts of 70 kmph with the wave height of up to 5 - 6 m are likely in the coastal areas of Gujarat on Saturday.
Fairly widespread rain and thunderstorms are likely over Andaman & Nicobar Islands and isolated to scattered rain and thunderstorms are expected over Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Andhra Pradesh, Jharkhand and Odisha.
Northern India is likely to experience dust storms or thunderstorms along with gusty winds over the plain on Saturday. Furthermore, a western disturbance (WD) with an induced cyclonic circulation is likely to bring widespread rain or snow and thunderstorms over northern India.
Isolated rain or snow and thunderstorms are likely over Jammu & Kashmir, and dust storms or thunderstorms with isolated to scattered rain are possible over Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and Rajasthan.
Isolated rain and thunderstorms are also possible over Bihar, West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra and Telangana and isolated rain or snow with thunderstorms are likely over Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.
Maximum temperatures of 40°C or more are possible in parts of western, central, eastern, southern and northern plains on Saturday. Maximum temperatures are below-normal over north and west India due to rainfall. Also, minimum temperatures are likely to be near average or slightly above normal across India.
Parts of states like Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand are likely to experience a maximum temperature of 40°C or more.
Sunday and Beyond
Unstable conditions are likely to persist over northeastern India for the next five days. Heavy rain and thunderstorms are forecast over Sikkim, Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura.
Southwesterly humid winds from the Arabian Sea may continue to cause unstable conditions over western coastal and southern India for the next five days. Heavy rains and thunderstorms are possible over Goa, Karnataka and Kerala. Also, fairly widespread rain and thunderstorms are likely over Andaman & Nicobar Islands.
Cyclone Vayu will continue to bring heavy rain and gusty winds over Gujarat on Monday and Tuesday despite weakening into a deep depression.
Isolated rain and thunderstorms are possible over Bihar, West Bengal, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh on Sunday. Also, scattered to isolated rain and thunderstorms are likely over Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Jharkhand and Odisha.
The prevailing WD with an induced cyclonic circulation will continue to produce widespread rain or snow and thunderstorms over northern India till Monday. Widespread rain and thunderstorms are likely over Jammu & Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh. Furthermore, Dust storms or thunderstorms and scattered rains are possible over Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and Rajasthan. Scattered rain or snow with thunder is also likely over Uttarakhand.
Heatwave conditions are likely to continue over western India and plains of northern, central, eastern and southern India but it will gradually weaken in the next five days. Maximum temperatures are likely to be above normal or normal over southern, eastern and northeastern India for the next five days.
Maximum temperatures of 40°C or more are likely over Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Jammu & Kashmir.
The air quality is likely to be poor over northeastern, southern and western India. Also, it will be very poor over northern, central and eastern India, especially in major cities like Delhi.
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