Here’s our latest weather forecast for India
Saturday
The southwest monsoon has further advanced into the southern area of Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh and the eastern area of Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand.
The incursion of westerly humid winds from the Arabian Sea and a cyclonic circulation over coastal Maharashtra produce heavy rain and thunderstorms over the western coast, the west and the south India. Heavy to very heavy rain and thunderstorms are likely over coastal Maharashtra, Goa and Gujarat on Saturday. A total of 60 to 110 mm of rainfall accumulation is possible coastal Maharashtra, including Mumbai, and Goa with the likelihood flooding in the next 24 hours. Heavy rainfall and thunderstorms are also possible over Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Odisha and Andaman & Nicobar Islands.
A cyclonic circulation over northeastern India accompanied with the southwesterly humid winds from the Bay of Bengal lead to instability over northeastern states. This produces fairly widespread rain and thunderstorms over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Sikkim and West Bengal on Saturday. Also, scattered rain and thunderstorms likely over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, Jharkhand and Bihar.
Another cyclonic circulation and a trough over Andhra Pradesh and Odisha, produce heavy rain and thunderstorms over Eastern India. Heavy rain and thunderstorms likely over Chhattisgarh and Odisha on Saturday and fairly widespread to scattered rainfall are also possible over Kerala and Telangana.
Isolated rain and thunderstorms are also possible over Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Rajasthan, Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.
Heatwave conditions are unlikely all over India for the next 5 days. Maximum temperatures of 40°C or more are possible over northern India and some areas of central, eastern and southern India on Saturday but the high-temperature areas are likely to decrease gradually. Maximum temperatures of 40°C or more are likely over Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar and Tamil Nadu.
Sunday and Beyond
The southwest monsoon is likely to be favourable for a further advance into remaining areas of central India, some more parts of western and northwest India by early next week. The advance of southwest Monsoon will be affected by a low pressure which is expected to form over north Bay of Bengal on Sunday.
A low-pressure system is forecast to form over the North Bay of Bengal on Sunday morning. The low moves toward eastern India and it is likely to be over Odisha and West Bengal on Monday night, over Jharkhand on Tuesday morning and over east Madhya Pradesh on Wednesday morning. The low may further develop and bring heavy rain and thunderstorms over eastern and central India through the weekend to early next week.
The westerly winds from the Arabian sea continue to affect western India and unstable conditions over are likely to persist over the west coast, west and south for the 5 days and more. Total precipitation of 150mm to 200mm are likely over coastal Maharashtra and Goa for the period of the next three days.
The persistent cyclonic circulation over the northeast is likely to bring fairly widespread rain and thunderstorms over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura and Sikkim on Sunday. Unstable conditions over eastern and northeastern India persist for the next 5 days and more. Scattered rain and thunderstorms are also likely over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Gujarat.
Isolated rain and thunderstorms are possible over Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Rajasthan, Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. The cyclonic circulation over eastern India produces heavy to very heavy rain and thunderstorms over Odisha on Sunday and heavy rain with thunderstorms over Chhattisgarh on Sunday.
Maximum temperatures are likely to remain below normal over western India until Monday and likely to go down over eastern and central India from Tuesday due to heavy rainfall. Minimum temperatures, on the other hand are near average all over India for the next 5 days. Maximum temperatures of 40°C or more likely over Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.
The air quality is likely to be poor or very poor over northern, central, western, eastern and southern India, especially in major cities like Delhi.
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