Where Alabama’s NCAA tournament hopes stand after 4 straight wins

Alabama basketball

Alabama guard Kira Lewis.Crimson Tide Photos / UA Athletics

Winners in the last four and eight of the last 11 games, Alabama’s basketball team is on a season-best heater.

At 12-7 overall, the Crimson Tide is among the nation’s top scoring teams. It’s a long way from the 2-4 start to the Nate Oats era when injuries and turnovers pushed NCAA tournament expectations out of sight.

Now, the trajectory points in a more positive direction with a key stretch ahead. It begins Wednesday night at LSU, No. 22 in the AP poll and No. 25 in the NET rankings used by the NCAA selection committee.

Alabama is No. 41 in the NET coming off the four-game winning streak. Outside of upsetting then-top-5 Auburn, the other three wins were games Alabama should’ve won. Those victories over Missouri, Vanderbilt and Kansas State all qualified as Quadrant 3 (out of four) games in terms of opponent quality.

The Tide is 9-2 in games in Quadrants 3 and 4. In Quadrant 1, Oats’ team is 1-4 with a 2-1 mark in Quad 2. Only three games remain in the Quad 3 or 4 range with five in Quad 1 and four in Quad 2.

A quality road win will help the resumé since the Tide sits at 2-4 in true road games this year. Visits to Auburn (NET No. 20), LSU (25) and Mississippi State (48) all qualify as Quad 1 games as of Monday.

In terms of bracket projections, Alabama appeared on 27 of the 79 surveyed on bracketmatrix.com. That left the Tide as the consensus first team out of the field. CBS Sports didn’t have Alabama among the 68 teams in the field or in the first four out. And NBC Sports had the Tide somewhere outside the last eight out.

And the NET rankings aren’t always the best predictor of tournament status. NC State was left out of the field last March despite a No. 33 standing in the NET. St. John’s, meanwhile, got a bid with a No. 73 NET ranking.

Alabama résumé

  • Best win: Auburn (No. 20)
  • Next best win: Miss. State (No. 48)
  • Worst loss: Penn (No. 166)
  • Next-worse loss: North Carolina (No. 104)
  • Quad 1 record: 1-4
  • Quad 2 record: 2-1
  • Quad 3 record: 6-1
  • Quad 4 record: 3-1
  • NET strength of schedule: No. 37
  • Average NET win: No. 129
  • Average NET loss: No. 67
  • KenPom ranking: No. 42

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