The feds have laid the smack down on water. How will Arizona respond?

The feds have laid the smack down on plans to keep lakes Mead and Powell from tanking.

No more empty threats to get it done.

No more praising each other for being really close to a deal.

Bureau of Reclamation Director Brenda Burman says she wants all seven Colorado River basin states to sign their respective Drought Contingency Plans (DCP) by Jan. 31.

And if that doesn’t happen, Burman told a packed house of water planners Dec. 13, Reclamation will step in and tell states how much water they’re going to get.

In other words, work this thing out yourselves and have numbers you can plan on.

Or leave it to chance and deal with whatever hand you’re dealt.

This gives us only a few weeks

Obviously, it’s in our interest to work this out ourselves. Burman noted in her speech that Lake Mead is now expected to hit 1,050 feet of elevation by summer 2020 – the trigger point to a Tier 2 water shortage. That is more dire than initially expected, and a point a junior water-rights state like us definitely doesn't want to be if Reclamation ends up doling out the cuts.

But Jan. 31 is really soon – especially for Arizona, which must get legislative authorization before it signs. The session doesn’t even start until Jan. 14. And the first week is usually a ramp up, capped on one end by the governor’s State of the State address and on the other by his budget unveiling.

That leaves little time for a slew of new faces in the House and Senate to get up to speed on such a complex deal. And make no mistake: There are lot of faces who don't know enough about this deal to explain, much less discuss or vote on, its finer points.

Is a special session even possible?

The only practical way to meet the deadline seems to be for Gov. Doug Ducey to call a special session, similar to what he did last year to address the state’s opioid addiction problem.

Arizona has tenuous support for an implementation plan that aims to spread the pain of DCP’s water cuts, so they don’t fall disproportionately on Pinal County farmers. But the $30 million Gov. Ducey has pledged in his budget is one of the deal’s primary linchpins.

Following the typical appropriations process for that money may not fly. The cash likely will have to be in hand – along with other assurances farmers and developers want – before lawmakers authorize the deal.

Because let’s face it: If any linchpins fall through or remain uncertain, or if poison pills are inserted, the tenuous support that holds this deal together will dissolve. It’s highly unlikely that lawmakers will authorize Arizona’s participation in DCP if key players balk at the plan to dole out the cuts.

Will a veto threat help or hurt?

That may be part of the reason why Gov. Ducey has threatened to veto any legislation that doesn’t meet his previously stated principles, such as maintaining lake levels and balancing state interests with those of individual players. He may be attempting to thwart any last-minute changes to the implementation plan that could peel off support.

But that runs its own risks, because lawmakers may feel that their legislative authority is being curbed – especially when so many questions remain about how parts of the implementation plan would work.

Republican legislative leadership says lawmakers aren't ready for a special session for that exact reason, and that they'd rather we take our time to ensure we have the best deal for Arizona.

Obviously, that means we’ve got a lot of work to do.

And the clock is ticking.

Reach Allhands at joanna.allhands@arizonarepublic.com.

MORE FROM ALLHANDS:

• This water deal is flawed, painful - and necessary
• What we learned from a watershed water meeting
• The next few weeks could make or break us on water