Six Nations 2019: Could Scotland really win the title? What do the stats say?

Scotland's players and coaches have not been slow to talk up their chances of lifting a first ever Six Nations title, and a first Championship crown in 20 years since they won the last Five Nations in 1999.

Head coach Gregor Townsend, a pivotal figure in that last triumph, has declared "we are in it to win it". One of his assistants, Matt Taylor, says it is something the squad have talked about "just about every day".

But is it a realistic target? Are Scotland, as Stuart Hogg believes, "on the path to something incredibly special"? Or is it merely an annual outburst of tartan-tinged optimism that will swiftly evaporate when they tackle the biggest beasts of European rugby's showpiece event?

One thing is certain. If they are to finish above Ireland (ranked second in the world), Wales (third) and England (fourth), Scotland (ranked seventh) must win at least one more match than they have ever done previously in the tournament.

Scotland have only ever been victorious in three of their five matches - on three occasions. The positive slant is that two of those have come in the last two years, evidence of a renaissance under first Vern Cotter and now Townsend.

To win four or more, Scotland will have to beat either France in Paris, where they have not won for 20 years, or overcome England at Twickenham, where the longest winless streak of any country in the Championship at one venue now stretches to 36 years, and 17 matches, since 1983. They did, at least, manage a draw in 1989.

It's a fair bet that if Scotland are going to claim an elusive title, they will need to score more tries than their opponents. In 1999, they scored 16, twice as many as second-placed England, in four games.

For the first 16 years of the Six Nations, even with an additional match, their tally never reached double figures. But times have changed.

In two of the last three years they have managed 11, and two years ago it was an impressive 14. But 2017 remains the only campaign in which they have scored more tries - and points - than they have conceded.

Even though Scotland tend not to be the type of side that grinds out wins with penalties in forward-dominated contests, they do have two dependable marksmen from the tee.

An 80% success rate or better is considered essential at Test level, and Scotland have two men in that bracket. The dependable Greig Laidlaw has nailed 44 of his 52 attempts in the last three championships, with half-back partner Finn Russell only missing two from 19 in the same period.

This year's fixture list appears to offer Scotland's best hope of improving on their best Six Nations performances.

Only twice in the previous 19 editions have they won an opening-round fixture, in 2006 - when they beat France - and 2017, when they beat Ireland. Both those were at Murrayfield, where they have won 10 of their last 12 Tests.

This year, for the first time, they open with two home games, starting with Italy, who they have beaten in their last six meetings, including World Cup warm-ups and summer Tests.

Victory on Saturday would set up nicely the visit of reigning champions Ireland, who will no doubt be battered and bruised whatever the result of their own seismic opener against England in Dublin.

Scotland won the corresponding fixture two years ago and blew a series of try-scoring chances in Dublin last year before succumbing to defeat. The Irish may have improved since then but they hold no fears for Townsend's men.

Good things tend to happen to Scotland in roughly 10-year intervals. A Grand Slam in 1990, a Championship title in 1999. A first win over France for 10 years in 2016. A first win over Wales for a decade in 2017. A first win over England for 10 years in 2018.

Does history beckon again in 2019?