New Hampshire may be Elizabeth Warren’s political backyard, but it doesn’t mean the Massachusetts senator has the state locked down in her presidential bid, where polling suggests she’s seen as insufficiently likable.
Recent polling shows Warren has made a comeback in the Granite State, leaping from the single digits to the high teens. But in a neighboring state where Massachusetts candidates have historically done well, Warren faces a problem — U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont.
“Historically Massachusetts politicians benefit from the backyard effect of campaigning in the neighboring state of New Hampshire,” said Dante Scala, a University of New Hampshire political science professor. “But when you have two politicians doing that at the same time, that backyard advantage is diluted.”
Sanders had the edge on Warren in the opening months of the race — with more name recognition and a leftover base from his 2016 run — but a UNH poll released this week showed the two of them tied with 19% support, just behind former Vice President Joe Biden at 24%, said UNH pollster Andrew Smith.
However, just 4% of those surveyed felt Warren was likable — up from her 1% rating in April, but far behind Sanders’ 20%. Respondents also said Sanders has a better chance of winning the general election than Warren, though Warren’s support increased 7 percentage points from the April survey while Sanders’ fell by 14.
A Saint Anselm College poll released Monday showed Warren at 17%, behind Biden at 21%, and U.S. Sen. Kamala Harris at 18%. Sanders was fifth with 10% support.
David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, said “from a historical standpoint, that would be a major setback” if Warren finished out of the top two in New Hampshire’s primary.
Former New Hampshire Democratic Party Chairwoman Kathy Sullivan said Warren’s “getting terrific turnout at her events and people are very enthusiastic” about her. But with several presidential hopefuls from the northeast, Sullivan said Warren has “a little bit of an edge, but I don’t think it’s a deciding factor.”
