Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Ohio Bobcats football: Scouting report and prediction
Tom GroeschenEnquirer beat reporter Tom Groeschen previews the University of Cincinnati's football game Saturday against Ohio University at Nippert Stadium.
The matchup
Cincinnati (3-0) vs. Ohio University (1-1)
Kickoff: Saturday, Noon at Nippert Stadium (40,000)
TV/Radio: ESPNU/700 WLW-AM
When UC runs: Michael Warren II leads the nation's No. 16 rushing offense with 311 yards rushing and six touchdowns. Warren is tied for No. 2 nationally with his six rushing TDs. Warren got a needed breather in last week's 63-7 win over Alabama A&M, as true freshman RBs Tavion Thomas (141 yards, 2 TDs) and Charles McClelland (121 yards, TD) saw extended time. Warren himself carried six times for 78 yards and a TD. Solid offensive play has been the key, under coach Ron Crook.
When UC passes: The passing game finally came alive last week, after two weeks of scant production. There were reasons for that, as redshirt freshman Desmond Ridder opened by playing his first college game (at UCLA) and UC kept it on the ground in a rainy game (Miami University). Alabama A&M offered opportunities for four UC quarterbacks to play, with Ridder throwing for 199 yards and three TDs in the first quarter alone. For the year, wideouts Kahlil Lewis and Jayshon Jackson lead UC with eight catches apiece.
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When Ohio runs
Senior running back Maleek Irons scored a pair of 1-yard touchdown runs in Ohio’s 45-31 loss to Virginia last week. Through two games in 2018, Irons leads Ohio with 95 rushing yards. The Bobcats have a stable of quality running backs but not much has happened yet. Senior A.J. Ouelette rushed for 1,006 yards last year but has only 93 this season. Figure on the Bobcats getting this solved, with many of the same faces back from last year's No. 16 national rushing offense. This year, OU ranks 103rd in rushing.
When Ohio passes
After a tough outing against Howard in the season-opening 38-32 win, junior quarterback Nathan Rourke bounced back rather well in the 45-31 loss to Virginia. Rourke was 16-of-31 for 246 yards and two touchdown passes and added a team-high 72 rushing yards. Standout receiver Papi White is a threat to score on any catch, with 14 receptions for 285 yards (20.4 per catch) and two TDs. No other Bobcats receiver has more than five catches.
Special teams
UC punter James Smith has been outstanding, ranked 13th nationally with a 45.0-yard average. More importantly, Smith has UC ranked No. 13 in net punting with a 42.50-yard average. UC true freshman placekicker Cole Smith (Middletown HS) has been perfect at 1-for-1 on field goals, 15-for-15 on PAT kicks. Ohio also has some strong performers here. Kicker Michael Farkas ranks No. 6 nationally with 46.4 yards per punt. Keep an eye on kick returner DL Knock, who took the second-half kickoff back 100 yards for a touchdown against Howard in the opener.
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Gresh's Gameplan: 3 keys to victory
Establish the pass
Yes, you've heard forever that so-and-so team must "establish the run." The UC running game has been there from the get-go, but more is needed from a passing game that ranks just 116th nationally. UC was able to fatten its numbers against FCS team Alabama A&M, but here is another opportunity against an OU pass defense that ranks just 129th. The Desmond Ridder-to-Kahlil Lewis passing tandem needs to have another big day, and watch for tight end Josiah Deguara as a consistent threat.
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Don't turn it over
The Ohio defense has produced five turnovers in just two games. UC has lost just one fumble and one interception in three games, and that effectiveness must continue against a team that is one of the better Group of Five clubs. If UC wins the turnover battle and sustains some long drives, this one is the Bearcats' game to lose.
Outfox the wily one
Ohio has what Cincinnati had hoped to get under Tommy Tuberville. Coach Frank Solich, 74, has made the Bobcats a perennial MAC power and is 98-72 in 14 years at the school. Solich came from Nebraska and has won fairly big on the downside of his career. Tuberville, most notably a success at Auburn, lasted only four years at UC (29-22 record) before resigning under pressure. UC has an up-and-comer in 45-year-old Luke Fickell, who has pushed every correct button this season. Coaches usually don't win or lose games, but Fickell and his staff have a tall order against one of America's quietly best head coaches.
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Number of note: 1981 - The last time that UC and Ohio met in football, a 19-9 Bearcats win in Athens. The series, first played in 1896, is tied 23-23-4.
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Prediction: Cincinnati 35, Ohio 23
Ohio was the preseason favorite of MAC coaches to win both the East and overall league tites. UC is playing far above its fourth-place AAC East prediction. UC is an 8-point favorite and also is given 83.5 percent chance to win, according to the ESPN matchup predictor. OU will have a hefty fan turnout but should be drowned out by the UC crowd, with an estimated 35,000 to attend, according to Bearcats athletic director Mike Bohn. This one won't come easily, but the Bearcats should go to 4-0.
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TEAM AVERAGES
Pointsfor, points against, total offense, rushing offense, passing offense, total defense, rushing defense, passing defense
UC – 36.7, 8.0, 426.0, 263.7, 162.3, 228.7, 83.7, 145.0
Ohio U. – 34.5, 38.5, 393.5, 132.0, 261.5, 598.5, 167.0, 431.5