Why a Trump win on census citizenship question could be a win for Ohio: What you need to know

Supreme Court

The U.S. Supreme Court will decide whether to overturn a lower court decision that stopped the Trump Administration from adding a citizenship question to the 2020 census.AP

The Trump Administration made its case to the U.S. Supreme Court Tuesday to include a citizenship question of all American households on the 2020 census, arguing against concerns that the question could lead to an undercount of non-citizens living in the United States.

Census Bureau experts have said next year’s census would be more accurate without the citizenship question - which has not been asked of all households since 1950 - because people might be reluctant to say if they or others in their households are not citizens.

But setting aside the legal dispute, a Trump win in this case could be a win for Ohio. Here’s why:

  • The latest estimates from the Census Bureau say Ohio has just over 250,000 non-citizens – legal or not. That accounts for just 2 percent of Ohio’s population.
  • By comparison, Florida has 2 million (9 percent), Texas 3 million (11 percent) and California 5.2 million (13 percent).
  • Ohio appears likely to drop to 15 congressional seats, based on the 2020 census.
  • But if fewer people are counted in states where there are a lot of non-citizens, Ohio could be more likely to hang onto 16 seats. (Though the Census Bureau will try to account for people, even if they don’t fill out census forms.)

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