Sherrod Brown and John Kasich are Ohio’s best hopes in nearly 100 years to regain the White House: Robert Alexander (Opinion)

Sherrod Brown Senate Banking Committee Hearing On Cybersecurity

Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio speaks during a Senate Banking Committee hearing in Washington, D.C., last May. (Bloomberg photo)Bloomberg

ADA, Ohio -- Ohio has a rich history when it comes to the presidency. Sherrod Brown and John Kasich are chasing that history as front-runners to break a drought of nearly 100 years since the last Ohioan occupied the Oval Office.

Although the Buckeye state lays claim to eight presidents, no Ohioan has held the position since Warren G. Harding died in office in 1923.

Brown and Kasich are viable candidates to end that skid. They both have past presidential aspirations and high name recognition. Kasich sought the Republican presidential nomination twice, in 2000 and in 2016. He has maintained a high profile as a governor of a swing state and now a CNN pundit. Democrat Sherrod Brown was a potential vice presidential nominee in 2016 and is eyeing a run for the top spot in 2020.

Both represent potentially strong candidacies, but have markedly different paths to the presidency.

Robert Alexander

Robert Alexander is a professor of political science at Ohio Northern University.

For Kasich, three distinct possibilities exist, two of which are unlikely and require a Trump implosion. First, the former Ohio governor could mount an insurgent bid for the 2020 GOP nomination. This would rely on President Donald Trump’s historically low approval ratings and Kasich’s consistent opposition to Trump. To stave such a challenge off, the Republican National Committee has taken the unusual step of adopting a resolution expressing its “undivided support for President Donald J. Trump and his effective Presidency.”

Invoking the memory of Ronald Reagan’s challenge of Gerald Ford in 1976 and Ted Kennedy’s challenge of Jimmy Carter, one Republican National Committee member declared that “there is no way that a sitting president in the 21st century is going to be denied the nomination for a second term from his party if he wants it.”

As a second option, Kasich could pursue an independent campaign for president. This route also seems destined for failure given the strength of partisanship in the electorate and the rules governing how electoral votes are distributed in the Electoral College. Ross Perot represents a cautionary tale. In spite of winning nearly 20 percent of the vote in 1992, he failed to muster a single vote in the Electoral College.

A more likely scenario is for Kasich to wait and run for president in 2024 on the Republican ticket. If Trump were to lose in 2020, and lose badly, Kasich’s steadfast defiance of Trump would serve him well. He has positioned himself as a “common sense conservative” while generally maintaining Republican values (pro-life, fiscal conservative, pro-business, free trade, etc.). This profile could make him an attractive candidate to a Republican Party looking for a comeback.

For Brown, 2020 is likely his best chance to win the presidency. If he decides to run, he will join a crowded field. At least 20 Democrats have expressed serious interest in the nomination. Standing out from a large group presents many difficulties. Yet, Brown has several attributes that set him apart.

First, in 2018, Brown won re-election by seven points in a swing state that Trump won by a surprising eight-point margin. Brown’s strength in Ohio would be attractive to Democrats hoping to reclaim the “blue wall” states of Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.

Second, Brown should do well in uniting progressives and moderate Democrats. He has consistently supported labor, protection of social security, health care expansion, and economic fair trade. He has proven to be very likable among fellow Democrats, including Sens. Kamala Harris and Bernie Sanders. A headline in Politico recently suggested that Brown is Joe Biden “without the baggage,” which is important given Biden’s popularity among prospective Democratic voters.

Third, Brown’s wife, former Plain Dealer columnist and Pulitzer-Prize-winner Connie Schultz, has proven to be an effective advocate for her husband. In a field dominated by strong Democratic women, Schultz’s presence in support of Brown is a major benefit.

Finally, recent polls suggest that “beating Trump” is the top quality Democrats are looking for in their candidate. With his fiery demeanor, Brown is a candidate that would relish standing toe-to-toe with the president. Brown’s authenticity and humor would also serve him well against Trump.

Kasich and Brown are both poised to run for the presidency, albeit under very different circumstances. One of them just could restore Ohio’s legacy as a presidential kingmaker.

Robert Alexander is a professor of political science at Ohio Northern University and author of four books, including the forthcoming “Representation and the Electoral College,” due for publication in April by Oxford University Press.

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