More days with 90-degree heat cause critical illnesses and rising crime rate | Opinion

• Tom Hrach is an associate professor of journalism at the University of Memphis. Contact him at thrach@memphis.edu.

The dog days of summer are here – that hot, sultry weather in August when 90-degree-plus days in the Mid-South are just part of the regular routine.

While those hot days are expected this time of year, a 2018 nationwide study completed by the Climate Impact Lab showed that 90-degree-plus days are becoming a lot more common in the Memphis area – stretching into early fall and starting already in late spring.

The study showed that Memphis averaged 52 90-plus-degree days in 1969. In 2017, that number averaged 68. By 2050, that average number is expected to top 90.

Within 30 years, one in four days of the calendar in Memphis will average 90 or more degrees. So far as of Aug. 20 this year, the number was already 55 days. That has huge implications for people in the Mid-South.

 “We know that in general when you increase heat you can have a decrease in labor productivity. You can have an increase in energy consumption, a decrease in crop yields, an increase in mortality rates. And an increase in crime rates too,” said Kelly McCusker, a climate scientist with the group that completed the study.

Because the problem comes so slowly, few people recognize the gravity of the issue. It's more acute in Memphis and the Mid-South than in other areas of the country.

 “All those things put together means that - and again this is not true everywhere, but it is true for the Southeast - that you end up basically reducing the economic output of a given area just based on increasing temperatures,” McCusker said.

Death takes no holiday during a heat wave

The connection between high heat and death, especially the deaths of older people are well researched. High heat exacerbates health problems such as heart failure, diabetes and breathing issues.

Dr. Basil Eldadah, program officer for the National Institute on Aging says high heat basically interferes with the body’s ability to regulate its temperature.

“Like with many things, the greater the time exposed to the particular factor – in this case heat -  the higher the risk of the complications and the more deaths from the heat,” Eldadah said. “If you have several days in a row of high heat without adequate ability to deal with it - like access to air conditioning or some other way to escape the heat - the risk is elevated.”

Prolonged high heat days become a major health concern. With a quarter of all days in Memphis headed for 90 degrees or higher, the likelihood of more deaths will increase.

Data from the Centers for Disease Control confirms the number of heat related deaths in the nation is averaging 658 people every year. It also reports that heat is the No. 1 weather related cause of death.

The Shelby County Health Department reported that 175 people died from heat related conditions since 1980. Due to inconsistent reporting, and the fact that some people may die from causes from the heat, the number of people who die is likely even greater, said director of SCHD Alisa Haushalter.

 “People are dying, but more important is that people suffer from illness. That’s a quality of life issue,” Haushalter said.

Perhaps a greater indication of how heat makes people sick are Shelby County hospital emergency department visits in the summer. The Shelby County Health Department reported that from April 2017 to September 2017, 669 people were treated at emergency departments for heat illness, jumping to 1,002 in the same months the following year.

A closer look at those monthly emergency room visits compared to the number of 90-plus-degree days in those months showed a correlation. In other words, the higher the heat in a month means more people going to the hospital.

Heat kills, but often slowly

Unlike most natural disasters, heat kills people slowly. Deaths mount up over time, and the true scope of the tragedy is often not known until years later.

Another factor is humidity. A 90-degree-plus day in Arizona is a lot more tolerable and less likely to turn deadly than a 90-degree plus day in the Mid-South. While Eldadah was reluctant to say whether Memphis is at a greater risk of heat deaths than anywhere else, he acknowledged that humidity is a big issue.

 As for costs, data from MLGW showed an increase in electrical use in the summer months of June through September. The average residential customer of MLGW was used about 39 kilowatts per hour of electricity every day in the summer months of 1969. By 2018, that figure was 55.

The hotter the temperature, the more electricity that is used. The increase in electrical use during the summer is greater now than it was a half century ago. That comes even though air conditioning units have become substantially more efficient in the past 50 years.

Cost is more difficult to track because Memphians in general have paid less for electricity than in many parts of the country. Using the kilowatt per hour cost in 2000 for MLGW customers and comparing it to the 2018 kilowatt per hour cost shows residents are paying more.

In 2000, the average residential MLGW customer paid $3.74 per day for electricity during the four summer months. In 2018 it was $4.19.

Mosquito increase equals health threat

If all that is not bad enough, mosquitoes will also become more of a nuisance. And it will take more efforts to keep mosquitoes from becoming a health issue. The reason: longer stretches of hot days will spread out the duration of time mosquitoes breed.

That means a greater threat from West Nile and Zika virus, Haushalter said.

While the entire country, and the world, is grappling with warming temperatures, it represents a greater economic and public health threat to some communities, including Memphis.

“The reason I am saying Yes, it would affect your part of the country more is because Memphis is not a very wealthy city. It is already hot. It is also already humid, so it is going to be more at risk for future effects with increasing heat,” McCusker said.

Experts agree the community needs to recognize the reality of warming temperatures and take action. That includes providing funding for programs to help the vulnerable: children, elderly and the homeless.

People such as Gary McInnis and his girlfriend Shayna Smith, both of whom were living on the streets of Memphis, need the help. In an interview early this year at the Memphis Hospitality Hub, a resource center for the homeless at 82 N. Second St., the couple said night is the most difficult time during the hot summer months while on the streets.

“At night when you try to sleep it is the hardest. With heat and all the rain we’ve had all the flies and mosquitoes just won’t leave you alone,” McInnis said.

Smith, who is expecting, says heat makes life on the streets just more difficult, which is why just a few hours at the air-conditioned hospitality hub makes a big difference.

“We just hope that by then (when the baby comes) we have a place to stay with air conditioning where we can call home,” Smith said.

Tom Hrach is an associate professor of journalism at the University of Memphis. Contact him at thrach@memphis.edu.