How Memphis factors in New Year's Six bowl race after win over Tulane, Boise State loss

Memphis' win over Tulane wasn't just the Tigers' most complete performance so far. It boosted their chances to reach a New Year's Six bowl.

Add Boise State's loss to BYU and the Tigers’ road is much clearer now. If they win out, the Tigers could play in  the Cotton Bowl, which is designated for the highest-ranked Group of Five team this season.

However, Memphis (6-1) still has several challenges. The Tigers, ranked No. 25 in the Amway Coaches’ Poll, are the fifth-highest ranked Group of Five team behind No. 17 SMU (7-0), No. 18 Cincinnati (6-1), No. 21 Boise State (6-1) and No. 24 Appalachian State (6-0).

Next up for Memphis is  Tulsa (2-5)  on Saturday (6 p.m., CBS Sports). The Golden Hurricane led by as many as 21 points at SMU on Oct. 5 before losing 43-37 in overtime and also trailed at Cincinnati 17-13 in the fourth quarter before losing last Saturday.

With the first College Football Playoff rankings debuting Nov. 5, here are some of the scenarios in the race for the Cotton Bowl.

How Memphis can reach the Cotton Bowl

The Tigers’ remaining schedule has two Top 25 teams with  SMU (Nov. 2) and Cincinnati (Nov. 29). Beat those teams and they will leapfrog Boise State and Appalachian State due to strength of schedule.

Memphis also has an advantage with both games at Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium. November also has been historically good for Memphis coach Mike Norvell with the Tigers 10-1in his first three seasons.

Memphis also must survive two other  road contests against Houston (3-4) and South Florida (3-4). The Houston rivalry has come down to the fourth quarter the last five seasons and while USF has been a disappointment this season, it is still a tricky game.

Finally, the Tigers have to win the AAC championship on Dec. 7 when it could face a rematch with Cincinnati or Temple (5-2).

How Memphis could miss the Cotton Bowl

Winning six consecutive games is no easy task. SMU only scored less than 40 points once this season and is ranked 54th in total defense, its highest ranking since 2011. If the Tigers can’t shut them down, the Mustangs will remain the favorite to reach the Cotton Bowl.

Even if Memphis upsets SMU, it might not leapfrog Cincinnati as the highest-ranked Group of Five team. The Bearcats, who defeated UCF on Oct. 4, won’t be tested until hosting Temple on Nov. 23.

Memphis also needs SMU and Cincinnati to finish the regular season with no more than two losses. The Mustangs have a tough finish to their schedule with a road game at Navy and hosting Tulane in their final two games.

Boise State could benefit from the AAC cannibalizing itself. If Memphis, SMU and Cincinnati lose before the AAC championship game, the Broncos could slowly move back up in the rankings. The AAC champion likely would be ranked higher in the final regular-season poll but a one-loss Boise State could have as strong an argument as a one- or two-loss AAC champion.

Appalachian State has perhaps the longest odds. The Mountaineers' best win is against North Carolina and they will need to win at South Carolina on Nov. 9 to impress voters.

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You can reach Tigers football beat writer Evan Barnes on Twitter (@Evan_B) or by email at evan.barnes@commercialappeal.com