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Daily coronavirus updates: Connecticut’s COVID-19 numbers have stayed mostly stable — and low — over the past month

  • Checker and ballot clerk Maura Turner sits at her station...

    Kassi Jackson/The Hartford Courant

    Checker and ballot clerk Maura Turner sits at her station behind a plexiglass shield, wearing a mask and gloves with hand sanitizer and disinfectant wipes at Conard High School Tuesday, Aug. 11, 2020, in West Hartford.

  • Gov. Ned Lamont looks along the shoreline at beachgoers enjoying...

    Kassi Jackson/The Hartford Courant

    Gov. Ned Lamont looks along the shoreline at beachgoers enjoying time at Hammonasset Beach Thursday, July 2, 2020, in Madison.

  • A healthcare worker gives New Haven Mayor Justin Elicker (reflected...

    Kassi Jackson / Hartford Courant

    A healthcare worker gives New Haven Mayor Justin Elicker (reflected in his side-view car mirror) the thumbs up as he completes a test for COVID-19 at the CVS Health rapid result drive-thru testing site on Sargent Drive Tuesday, May 12, 2020, in New Haven.

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Despite some day-to-day variation in hospitalizations, deaths and positivity rate, Connecticut’s relatively low COVID-19 numbers have held steady over recent weeks, state numbers show, with slight positive trends across some metrics.

A Courant analysis of Connecticut’s rolling average of new coronavirus cases shows that the state’s daily case counts dropped dramatically during May and June, then leveled off in July. After a very slight uptick during the first week of August, cases have dipped again, settling at a level lower than almost all other U.S. states.

The state’s daily positivity rate has remained at about 1% since late June, fluctuating between 0.2% and 1.4% during that time.

Checker and ballot clerk Maura Turner sits at her station behind a plexiglass shield, wearing a mask and gloves with hand sanitizer and disinfectant wipes at Conard High School Tuesday, Aug. 11, 2020, in West Hartford.
Checker and ballot clerk Maura Turner sits at her station behind a plexiglass shield, wearing a mask and gloves with hand sanitizer and disinfectant wipes at Conard High School Tuesday, Aug. 11, 2020, in West Hartford.

Similarly, Connecticut’s daily total of hospitalized patients has leveled off at a relatively low number, hovering between 54 and 74 since mid-July — as compared to nearly 2,000 at the state’s peak. During that time, hospitalizations have sometimes increased significantly one day, only to decline again just as sharply within a few days.

Josh Geballe, the state’s chief operating officer, has said hospital admissions tend to be lower on weekends than during the week, explaining some of the variance.

The best news for Connecticut in recent weeks and months has been a decline in the state’s death toll. After experiencing an average of about 73 deaths a day in April and 54 a day in May, the state saw 13 a day in June, 3.5 a day in July and 1.5 a day so far in August. On three different days last week and two days so far this week, officials reported zero new coronavirus-linked deaths.

The state on Thursday reported an increase of five hospitalizations, for a total of 63 patients currently hospitalized with COVID-19. The state a

lso added on Thursday 76 new cases out of 8,045 tests, bringing its total case count to 50,782, but reported zero new coronavirus-related deaths. The state has seen 4,450 coronavirus-related deaths since the beginning of the pandemic.

Here are some other takeaways from the state’s recent COVID-19 data.

More cases among young people

Connecticut has continued to see a disproportionately high rate of cases among young people, which state officials have pointed to as a concerning trend. Local officials worry that the resumption of college classes over the next few weeks could lead to even such more cases.

From the beginning of the pandemic through mid-July, people under 30 accounted for a total of only 17% of coronavirus cases. But of the cases identified from July 5 to Aug. 8, about 42% were found in young people.

Very few of those cases were found in children under 10, state data shows, meaning the majority of the recent cases in young people were identified in those between the ages of 10 and 30.

Dr. Lynn Sosa, the deputy state epidemiologist, told The Courant at the end of July that if young people continue to contract the virus at such high rates, it could lead to an overall spike in cases in the state.

Gov. Ned Lamont looks along the shoreline at beachgoers enjoying time at Hammonasset Beach Thursday, July 2, 2020, in Madison.
Gov. Ned Lamont looks along the shoreline at beachgoers enjoying time at Hammonasset Beach Thursday, July 2, 2020, in Madison.

Though officials have linked several clusters of coronavirus cases to local parties or other unsanctioned gatherings, the rise in young people testing positive for COVID-19 has so far not resulted in a net spike in cases.

Rhode Island, however, has seen a spike in cases, which Rhode Island Gov. Gina Raimondo has blamed primarily on young people and partying.

Testing stays steady

Since the beginning of August, Connecticut has been reporting an approximately flat number of tests each day (with the exception of each Monday’s numbers, which include tests reported over the weekend).

The state’s average daily test numbers have slowly increased over the past three months, with a noticeable bump at the end of June and beginning of July. The average daily test numbers are now approximately on par with the numbers from one month ago, fluctuating between 10,000 and 12,000 a day.

The state reported just over 70,000 test results during the first week of August, and is on track to a report a similar number at the end of this week.

Low rate of transmission

Connecticut’s rate of COVID-19 transmission, as estimated by the website Rt.live, appeared to increase in July before declining again over the past few weeks.

Currently, Rt.live estimates the state’s rate of transmission at 0.91, meaning residents infected with COVID-19 will spread the virus to less than one person on average. That rate stands seventh lowest among states and second lowest among states in the Northeast (behind Maine).

Alex Putterman can be reached at aputterman@courant.com. Emily Brindley can be reached at ebrindley@courant.com.